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Old 02-22-2012, 07:00 PM
 
Location: Scottsdale
272 posts, read 272,003 times
Reputation: 165

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Quote:
Originally Posted by sh9730 View Post
Observer,

Yeah, there still is an awful lot of space in between, isnt there...!
Funny you said that. I left in '97, when there WAS a lot of space between. In '08, my wife and I flew to Tucson to look at houses there and in Sierra Vista, and drove up to Phoenix to visit family. I could not believe the amount of growth that had taken place in just over a decade, and how far south the burbs had crept.

Ain't as much space as there used to be - not all that long ago...
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Old 02-22-2012, 07:36 PM
 
Location: Gilbert - Val Vista Lakes
6,066 posts, read 8,466,224 times
Reputation: 3679
Default Casa Grande real estate information

Below is current information for Casa Grande from the Cromford Report:

Casa Grande Inventory (Months Supply)
5.0 months supply...... Feb 2011
3.1 months supply.......Feb 2012 (38% decline in inventory)

Casa Grande Sales
92 sales per month Feb 2011
81 sales per month Feb 2012 (slower sales than same time last year)

Casa Grande Sales Price per Square Foot
$44.08........Feb 2011
$52.45........Feb 2012....(19% increase in price per square foot)


From the MLS, here is the current Active, AWC and Pending Listings.

209.....Active Listings in Casa Grande as of Feb 22, 2012
83......AWC (Short sales under contract)
132.....Pending Listings (under contract)

The above information shows a decline in inventory of 38% and an increase in price of 19% in one year. Looks like Casa Grande is doing great, just like other areas of the valley.

In 1956, I recall that between Dallas Tx, and Ft Worth Texas there was nothing but open country. Today it is a "Metroplex" of some 6.5 million people.

Phoenix and Tucson have a total population of around 5 million people, and apparently this Megapolitan area is forecast to grow to 10 million by 2040.

When Phoenix, Tucson merge
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Old 02-22-2012, 07:39 PM
 
Location: Gilbert - Val Vista Lakes
6,066 posts, read 8,466,224 times
Reputation: 3679
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
It's not just here. News this morning shows housing supply nationally at the lowest level in over 7 years. By that measure, the industry is poised to take off. An improving national market is critical to a sustained recovery in AZ.
I've been hearing this for months from Realtors in many cities across the country, on a forum for Realtors where I participate. The news is just now beginning to pick up on it.
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Old 02-22-2012, 10:34 PM
 
9,182 posts, read 10,044,352 times
Reputation: 6806
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post

In 1956, I recall that between Dallas Tx, and Ft Worth Texas there was nothing but open country. Today it is a "Metroplex" of some 6.5 million people.
Dallas to Ft. Worth is 36 miles. Phoenix to Tucson is 116 miles. That is 3 times the distance.
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Old 02-23-2012, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Gilbert - Val Vista Lakes
6,066 posts, read 8,466,224 times
Reputation: 3679
Quote:
Originally Posted by azriverfan. View Post
Dallas to Ft. Worth is 36 miles. Phoenix to Tucson is 116 miles. That is 3 times the distance.
Those are about the correct distances from city centers.

However, consider that we already have towns built along I10, such as Maricopa, Casa Grande, Arizona City and Eloy. The Phoenix suburbs have been spreading south for some time.
  • From Sun Lakes at the southern tip of Chandler, to Avra Valley is only 70 miles.
  • From Eloy to Avra Valley is only 33 miles.
Around Tucson, people are moving from the city into the suburbs along I10. Spreading north from Tucson is Cortera and Avra Valley.

In 1956 many people probably argued that the land between Dallas and Ft. Worth would never be filled with homes.

The corridor from Arizona Ave (the western boundary in Chandler); Power Rd in Gilbert as the east boundary; Chandler Heights to the north; and Hunt Highway to the south has tremendous growth. It slowed, but it's moving again.
  • There is a very large new development south of Riggs and west of Highley.
  • The infrastructure along Power Rd, Highley, and Val Vista Dr is spreading south at a fast pace.
  • Riggs is a 6 lane divided road as far east as Val Vista Dr, and will soon be extended.
Homes are selling fast within that corridor:
  • 226 Active homes for sale
  • 102 AWC (short sales under contract)
  • 137 Pending (under contract in escrow)
  • 510 Closed (sold in the past 6 months)
At that rate, there is only a 2.6 months supply of homes in that corridor.

We saw that Casa Grande inventory declined by 38% in the past year to only a 3.1 months supply; and the price increased to $52.45/sf for a 19% increase in price.

I checked Maricopa and found that their price increased to $48.45/sf for a 17% price increase over the past 12 months, and their inventory declined 40% to a 2.7 months supply.

People are buying in the southern areas.

Not everyone has to work in downtown Phoenix. Many people today work out of home offices. Many telecommute, and only go into the office periodically for meetings, so a long commute once a week is not a big deal. Others work locally and/or own local businesses.

Because I saw Ft Worth and Dallas in 1956 when it was all farm land in between, and I saw the area around the Oakland CA airport expand from bare land in 1966 to being completely filled with commercial buildings, hotels, etc to accommodate the expanding airport today, I know how growth can appear to be impossible if one only looks at it as it is today, and doesn't take a good look into the future.

To me, Phoenix and Tucson as a Metroplex in 40 years (similar to Dallas Ft Worth Metroplex) with close to 10 million people is a probability.
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Old 02-23-2012, 10:35 AM
 
615 posts, read 459,296 times
Reputation: 441
Quote:
Originally Posted by LS Jaun View Post
First, Im sorry to hear about your parents move to Maricopa.

Second, the merge could happen in 100 years, but we will be really taxing the resources of our country when that happens
Oh they're not moving there - my dad just saw how cheap the houses were so he picked one up for a 'winter house' or something...the rest of us thought he was crazy, from what I heard it's half-empty and smells like manure but it's his deal.

And for the record I find the idea of Phucson pretty appalling but I wouldn't be surprised to see it in my lifetime (I'll be nearing 80 in 2062).
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Old 02-23-2012, 11:33 AM
 
103 posts, read 93,416 times
Reputation: 92
Quote:
Originally Posted by Captain Bill View Post
We saw that Casa Grande inventory declined by 38% in the past year to only a 3.1 months supply; and the price increased to $52.45/sf for a 19% increase in price.

I checked Maricopa and found that their price increased to $48.45/sf for a 17% price increase over the past 12 months, and their inventory declined 40% to a 2.7 months supply.
Captain Bill, do you have a rule of thumb for what inventory level drives price increases in such a beaten down market? Or do you expect the price increases are temporary since they'll pull more supply? Can Casa Grande and Maricopa be extrapolated to the rest of the Valley, or are they (excuse the pun) "isolated" cases?

This is a little off topic, so if folks want to discuss this in more depth than CB's one-off answer, someone please start a new thread and let us know about it. Thanks.
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Old 02-23-2012, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Gilbert - Val Vista Lakes
6,066 posts, read 8,466,224 times
Reputation: 3679
Quote:
Originally Posted by AZtrails View Post
Captain Bill, do you have a rule of thumb for what inventory level drives price increases in such a beaten down market? Or do you expect the price increases are temporary since they'll pull more supply? Can Casa Grande and Maricopa be extrapolated to the rest of the Valley, or are they (excuse the pun) "isolated" cases?

This is a little off topic, so if folks want to discuss this in more depth than CB's one-off answer, someone please start a new thread and let us know about it. Thanks.
The Phoenix area prices is being discussed here: "Bad News on Phoenix area home valuations"
However, there is no rule of thumb. We've been watching the inventory decline for over two years, along with increasing sales, and the inventory getting down below 4 months supply in general.

We expected to see more inventory from traditional sellers being added at the beginning of the year. But that hasn't happened. The inventory is declining.

Casa Grande and Maricopa has probably increased in price greater than other areas because of the low prices to begin with. You can still get homes there for around $50/sf, and that is attractive to a lot of people.
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Old 02-24-2012, 03:10 PM
 
1,232 posts, read 1,468,654 times
Reputation: 629
The largest (public company) employer in the US and in AZ is Walmart, and those employees won't be telecommuting. But the more advanced technology gets, the more people telecommute. I work with a lot of people that used to share a Phx office but now we all telecommute and most of them have moved away. When you take 'the office' out of the picture, people live where they enjoy the climate, hobbies, family, schools, cost of living, whatever.

I personally can't see Eloy/CG/central-Phucson being a destination for telecommuters. Maybe.

And I agree that whoever thinks the open spaces in this country will be filling in anytime soon is overdue for a long road trip (or low flying plane ride). It's a vast nothingness out there.
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Old 02-24-2012, 04:27 PM
 
103 posts, read 93,416 times
Reputation: 92
Good post, ReadyFreddy.

Quote:
The largest (public company) employer in the US and in AZ is Walmart
15 years ago, Motorola was AZ's largest private employer. Compare what was the average MOT salary to that of WMT's. How sad.

Quote:
I personally can't see Eloy/CG/central-Phucson being a destination for telecommuters.
The WMT workers won't have to telecommute -- those jobs will come to them. Of course, you can't sustain an economy on just WMT jobs.

Quote:
And I agree that whoever thinks the open spaces in this country will be filling in anytime soon is overdue for a long road trip (or low flying plane ride). It's a vast nothingness out there.
Only about 6% or so of the USA is "developed". I can't imagine it getting over 10% in even our children's lifetimes. But a strip of light to medium density development between PHX and TUS in the next 50 years? Yes, although it's more likely to be via Coolidge and Florence than on the reservation between Phoenix and Casa Grande, and through Avra Valley than the stretch between Picacho and Marana.
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