Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Tucson, Page: first time home buyer, tax credit, zip code)

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by tnp

Yeah most have been rehabbed which would account for the price doubling, but along with that, 2 years ago you could find a lot of fixer-uppers in the $40,000 - $50,000 range. The past few months I've been seeing fixer-uppers in some of the same areas are running $60,000 +, so it looks like there's been quite a price increase in fixer-uppers as well as those that have already been rehabbed.

You will be able to find a home here, but there will be heavy competition for homes that are move-in ready. Why not lease a place for a while first? Get to know the towns a bit before shooting what sounds like your only "bullet" financially. I think there will still be some great deals out there for the next couple of years, but you might have to spread your searches a little, and be prepared to act fast when they pop. And if you're willing to fix a place up, you'll have more to choose from. Purple bedrooms, ugly carpet & messed up kitchens are your friend!

[themudpuppy]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

Why not lease a place for a while first? Get to know the towns a bit before shooting what sounds like your only "bullet" financially.

I wanted to rent first, but being that home prices keep increasing and I'm fairly low income, I'm afraid they'll be out of my reach again if I wait. Also, interest rates are expected to go up as well. Right now I can get a $100,000 home (if I can find one) for around the same monthly payment as my current lower priced home because the interest rates are lower. If I wait and prices and interest rates keep going up, I'll have to get a much lower priced home to stay within the monthy payment I can afford, which will give me even fewer homes to choose from. I need to buy while prices are still reasonable and interest rates are low. Moving to Arizona has been my dream for many, many years, and I'm afraid to blow my chance of owning there by waiting.

One thing that might be in my favor is that I'm not tied to one town or region. Although right now I'm focusing mostly on the areas around Phoenix and Tucson, I'm also looking at most of the state from Sierra Vista up to Kingman and all points in between, except snowy areas like Flagstaff. I spent a month in Arizona visiting most of the towns between Sierra Vista and Kingman, and there were only a few areas I didn't like.

Purple bedrooms, ugly carpet & messed up kitchens are your friend!

LOL! I can't believe how many ugly purple bedrooms I have seen! Although I would prefer a move-in ready home, if I can get a good deal on a light fixer-upper in the right area, I'd go for it. I can handle cosmetic, carpet and minor repairs.

[Captain Bill]

For those of you who are using my web site to search, here's an exercise for you:

Select the following Criteria:

• Property type..........Residential
• Location................ Maricopa County
• Dwelling type..........Single Family Residential
• List Price................Minimum $0.....Maximum $250,000
• Status...................Active (do not include AWC)

At 6:47 am I arrived at total homes in that criteria of 4,214. Your number will be slightly different because of the mls updating.

In the past 12 months from March 13, 2011 to March 13, 2012 the MLS shows that 61,288 homes sold with the above criteria. Divide that by 12 to see that we sold 5,107 homes each 30 days, or 170 per day.

If we are still selling 170 per day, and we have 5107 to sell, then we have a 30 day supply of homes meeting that criteria.

In the past 30 days we have added only 1,857 new listings meeting that criteria. So, at the present sale rate we're not adding enough listings to keep up with the demand.

Note: There will be some AWC, and Pendings that will fall through and come back on the market. That will add some supply. However, most of the AWC's have one and more backup offers that will keep them off the market.

Mike Orr of the Cromford Report said: " ...What is even more scary is that this supply dropped by over 21% in the last month alone. What will happen to it during the rest of March, April and May? I don't know - we are in now uncharted territory - but prices for these homes are obviously going to be under extreme upward pressure unless a huge new supply of affordable homes suddenly appears.."

To find the supply of homes in a specific price range, such as $75,000 to $150,000 simply edit the search to change the minimum and maximum price.

And, narrow it down further to a city or zip code instead of the entire county. For example, Gilbert between $100-150k has 25 homes and Surprise has 72. (Some in Surprise are in age restricted communities) To filter those out, select Special Listing Conditions and check NOT age restricted.

[themudpuppy]

I did a search for $100,000 max. Came up with 1,252 homes. I want a newer home, so I narrowed it to 1995 to present. Only 344 homes came up. Narrowing it further to the minimum lot size I want, there are only 70 available homes in the entire area of Maricopa county. I only searched for Active and filtered out AWC, as I consider those gone until the status changes back to Active.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by tnp

I did a search for $100,000 max. Came up with 1,252 homes. I want a newer home, so I narrowed it to 1995 to present. Only 344 homes came up. Narrowing it further to the minimum lot size I want, there are only 70 available homes in the entire area of Maricopa county. I only searched for Active and filtered out AWC, as I consider those gone until the status changes back to Active.

What you can do is have any Realtor set you up with a portal. The portal is set up with searches to meet your criteria, and it can be modified at any time.

You can go into the portal at anytime and mark the properties. In addition the Realtor can set you up with daily automatic updates. That will send you an email daily that gives you the status changes: Back on Market, New Listing, AWC to Active, Price Change, etc. That way you can keep up to date easily.

Whoever you get to set it up, let them know that you're looking all over the valley, and the home you select may not be in their area. They should still accommodate you.

[jdahunt]

Captain, what would your advice be for someone in the 150k range be if they found something they really wanted. Would it be 5% over 10% or even higher?

At the time of the offers are the listing agents telling you how many offers they have or is it a secret?

My wifes uncle listed his house in Moline, Illinois last week and on the first day he had 3 offers and sold it for 2k more than the listed 85k. Granted in that area they never had the foreclosures like Florida or Arizona.

[themudpuppy]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

You can go into the portal at anytime and mark the properties. In addition the Realtor can set you up with daily automatic updates. That will send you an email daily that gives you the status changes: Back on Market, New Listing, AWC to Active, Price Change, etc. That way you can keep up to date easily.

Is this different than what you have on your site? I have a portal on your site where I marked properties I'm interested in, and I get daily update emails from you that show the status changes of those properties.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by jdahunt

Captain, what would your advice be for someone in the 150k range be if they found something they really wanted. Would it be 5% over 10% or even higher?

At the time of the offers are the listing agents telling you how many offers they have or is it a secret?

They will tell the agent how many offers they have, if s/he asks. If a home is occupied, then the number of business cards there can be an indication.

My advice is the same as I give my clients.

Know the market
Know the supply and demand, and understand it
Know the current average price per square foot of comps in the community in the same condition.

Your agent can give you most of this information. The data that I've posted on C-D can give you much more information that comes from the Cromford Report. Not many agents have a subscription.

Determine where you think prices are going.
Determine what you feel the value should be in the next 5-10 years, or whatever your holding period is.

Then determine what the value of the property is to you today, and the maximum amount that you're willing to pay, based on the factors above.

Then make that offer.

I'm seeing offers of 5-10% over list being outbid. That's why I say to determine all the values above so that you make the offer based on the value of the house to you. That value may be below list, at list price, 5% above, or even 20% above, depending on the location, condition and value to you.

You could even test the market by making lower offers in order to get a feel for what's happening.

Have financing arranged. Usually I tell people to not rush, to take their time. This market in this price range is different. Be educated first, so you'll be prepared to make quick, but good decisions.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by tnp

Is this different than what you have on your site? I have a portal on your site where I marked properties I'm interested in, and I get daily update emails from you that show the status changes of those properties.

I think it may be the same. I'll do some comparing during the next couple days to be sure.

[themudpuppy]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

I think it may be the same. I'll do some comparing during the next couple days to be sure.

Thanks!