Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (water heater, roofing, move to)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Here is what is happening in Surprise from http://www.altosresearch.com/research/AZ/surprise-real-estate-market . Altos is forward looking. Someone on this board was predicting that homes prices were going to plummit in Surprise because of commute times and gas prices.

Who was predicting that home prices were going to drop in 2012 or stay the same?

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by jessrscott

Legally, you have 7 days to accept or counter.

There is no law to that effect. If an offer is written without an acceptance date it is good until the person making the offer withdraws it in writing.

Our realtor told us that we were not obligated to change ours until after the inspection had cleared,

Your Realtor is not correct. S/he should read the Section 10.7 & 10.8 of the ARMLS Rules and Regulations.

If there is an executed contract the listing must be placed in Pending.

However, if the seller wishes to continue marketing the property, then s/he provides the Realtor with written instructions to continue marketing, and that is by using the status of AWC (Active With Contingency).

Leaving it in Active when it is not Active is a violation of the ARMLS rules. If other buyers don't want to look at AWC homes, and the Realtor still has it Active, then it wastes the time of every buyer and agent who sees the home erroneously placed in Active status; and makes them angry that they're being misled by the wrong status showing.

Realtors need to know the rules and comply with them. They are in place for a good reason.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

Case-Shiller is bang on. They are not RE agents so they have no skin in the game.

Case-Shiller may be bang on, but it's a delayed shot because they are 3 months behind
When some people cannot find data to dispute the data the RE agents provide, and they don't want to believe the data because it conflicts with their own personal agenda, they resort to this type of lame criticism. It isn't anything new.

Everyone has skin in the game.

• Case-Shiller gets paid for their information.
• Buyers are interested in prices being lower so they can get steals.
• Sellers are interested in prices going up so they can get more money for their home.
• Renters want rent to go down so they can pay less rent and still not have to live with Section 8 renters.

Would you rather get your news on the housing market 3 months late that only tells you that the market went up, or down, 3 months ago, or would you rather get local factual data that tells you on a daily basis what the market is actually doing

Where else can you get up to date data on the Phoenix Real Estate Market?

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

I did see a new WFC commercial. It encourages people to actually get real pre-qualification before they house hunt. It seems to infer that a lot of people are missing out on good homes, because sellers aren't fooling around. A letter from some mortgage broker may not carry that much weight.

That's excellent advice. Most agents won't work with a buyer until they have the pre-qual. The pre-qual can be done in a day, so they may work with them if they request the pre-qual right away.

They need to have the pre-qual to submit with an offer. I won't submit one without it, and most sellers will not consider an offer without it. Why would a seller accept an offer not knowing if the buyer is even qualified to buy that home? Also the contract states that the buyer will submit an Loan Status Update within 5 days of contract execution.

Today it is best to get a pre-approval. The mortgage company I prefer to work with does pre-approvals now. They are working on one for a buyer client of mine. He's relocating and will have that pre-approval before he gets here. The pre-approvals should be almost as good as cash, and should be able to close within 15 days.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Here is what is happening in Surprise from http://www.altosresearch.com/research/AZ/surprise-real-estate-market . Altos is forward looking. Someone on this board was predicting that homes prices were going to plummit in Surprise because of commute times and gas prices.

Who was predicting that home prices were going to drop in 2012 or stay the same?

You must have "skin in the game"
But wait; you're not a RE agent

Quote by Howard Roark..........Case-Shiller is bang on. They are not RE agents so they have no skin in the game.

[Ponderosa]

Prices are about to level out for a while. Gasoline prices have put the kibosh on the fledgling recovery just like they did this time last year. Sales in the rest of the US are not catching fire like here so the migration to AZ is on hold. The foreigners have already bought in large numbers and sales to them will dwindle. Also, we are entering the slow season here. Gas should drop over the summer and things may pick up a little in the fall. Till then, we have seen the bulk of appreciation for this year. The shortage of homes in the low range will keep prices from falling, though.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Prices are about to level out for a while. Gasoline prices have put the kibosh on the fledgling recovery just like they did this time last year. Sales in the rest of the US are not catching fire like here so the migration to AZ is on hold. The foreigners have already bought in large numbers and sales to them will dwindle. Also, we are entering the slow season here. Gas should drop over the summer and things may pick up a little in the fall. Till then, we have seen the bulk of appreciation for this year. The shortage of homes in the low range will keep prices from falling, though.

Maybe but wouldn't that at least partially depend on supply? If supply keeps drying up the prices pretty much have to keep rising right?

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by jimj

Maybe but wouldn't that at least partially depend on supply? If supply keeps drying up the prices pretty much have to keep rising right?

What I am suggesting is that demand will fall off leading to a much more balanced supply/demand ratio. I was surprised to see the pending home sales jump this month (just released), though. I believe we need to be focused on national conditions right now as much as our local market. We need population growth. You simply can not sustain a housing recovery on investor and snowbird sales.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

Prices are about to level out for a while. Gasoline prices have put the kibosh on the fledgling recovery just like they did this time last year. Sales in the rest of the US are not catching fire like here so the migration to AZ is on hold. The foreigners have already bought in large numbers and sales to them will dwindle. Also, we are entering the slow season here. Gas should drop over the summer and things may pick up a little in the fall. Till then, we have seen the bulk of appreciation for this year. The shortage of homes in the low range will keep prices from falling, though.

If the economy softens, gas prices go down. If the economy gets too hot, interest rates go up. So external market forces will prevent a run-away housing prices.

While prices in other markets are not "on fire", they are extremely active in the Midwest. We can use the word "stabilized" in our community and multiple offers on $500K homes in Plymouth, Edina, and Eden Prairie MN. So just like the market is misrepresented by some sources in Phoenix, the same thing is happening in our next of the woods.

The reason why the entire country RE market is changing IMHO is CHEAP money.

[khuntrevor]

I see prices leveling off in DC/NoVA, but those prices are 4 times higher than ours.....condos 8 times higher. Pulte is selling brand new by Turf Paradise from the 120s. That won't get you a lot in many places.