Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Mesa, Chandler: low crime, coop, maintenance)

[snowbird2B]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Thanks so much for your insights. We have outstanding know-how on this board. I recommend reading here first before going out and buying something. This is the best and most condensed buyer education I'm aware of. Awesome and thanks again to everyone.

AGREED! We just purchased our AZ home in February and used alot of the information provided on this forum to help us with our decision.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by khuntrevor

Captain Bill, could we get the supply by price range for SFR only. I think it will show an even sharper right turn.

Ths chart that I posted yesterday is Supply by Price Range for Single Family Detached. http://www.city-data.com/forum/24050588-post662.html

Either at the top or the bottom of the charts it will say what is shown in the chart.

Sometime in May I'm setting up an even better search on my site. It'll actually be on a separate site, and the beauty of that search is you can search everything in the mls just like Realtors do. It has every criteria available plus it shows Active, AWC, Pending, and SOLD listings. The only thing not available is the Private Realtor Remarks which contain lock and gate codes, etc.

It is not a publicly available search because it's part of a platform to work with clients. The way it's set up is one has to be invited to use the system. Anyone here is welcome to use it; just send me a DM and I'll give you the information.

[jimj]

My wife and I were talking about prices yesterday and the lack of signs we see (except builder signs) when driving around now.
Out of 14 houses we've gone through this is only the second one that we feel we got a "steal of a deal" on. It's also only the 3rd house that she's been actively looking at what can be done to upgrade it to make it more salable in the future (like landscaping the back yard instead of just laying down rock,finishing the sprinkler system, upgrading the curb appeal from builder grade etc).
This is also only the second house that I'd consider holding as a rental if we were wanting to move soon.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by jimj

My wife and I were talking about prices yesterday and the lack of signs we see (except builder signs) when driving around now.
Out of 14 houses we've gone through this is only the second one that we feel we got a "steal of a deal" on. It's also only the 3rd house that she's been actively looking at what can be done to upgrade it to make it more salable in the future (like landscaping the back yard instead of just laying down rock,finishing the sprinkler system, upgrading the curb appeal from builder grade etc).
This is also only the second house that I'd consider holding as a rental if we were wanting to move soon.

I'm seeing the same thing in Surprise. There are only 3 previously owned homes in Marley Park. All three are more than $200K. The other 10 are new builds. Re-wind to early 2011, There was 15-25 previously owned homes and just just a couple of new builds. Boy-of-boy how times have changed.

As I said before, the Heartland is picking up steam as well. Forget what you read from the doom-and-gloom prognosticators; in MN, there are multiple bids on $300K-$600K homes in the right towns. There are tons of showings and inventory is down around 25% from last year. 1100 homes sold last week and a total of 17,000 homes are on the market. The last time 17,000 homes were on the market in the metro area was 2004.

Do realize these homes are 25-35% off of peak pricing but there is lots and lots of activity. It's still plenty soft on the 2nd (lake) home market. I mention this because Phoenix is leading the nation in the housing recovery by 8-10 months. From my perspective, it is CLEARLY catching on with the rest of the country.

While I won't vote for Obama, I predict he will be a 2nd term president even if the economy doesn't get better. It just has to stay at this level and he is a shoe-in.

So my official prediction for the Phoenix RE market is that the 2012 gains will hold from where they are right now. I think they will peak around August and pull back a touch though the fall back to where they are right now. If that does in fact happen, I also predict the doom-and-gloomers will assume that we are going back in the toilet which isn't the case. Other than our massive debt, we have YEARS of pent-up demand. In a year from now, I expect to hear the word "inflation" fairly often.

Bill, if you can fill in where we are from Jan 1st to April 28th, that's my official 2012 percentage guess.

[dadof2divas]

Reading the posts here is the main reason I am glad the we have dropped the price of our house here in NC. We are soooo ready to get out there and with the supply dwindling I want to get there while I can

[PhinsFan1]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

So my official prediction for the Phoenix RE market is that the 2012 gains will hold from where they are right now. I think they will peak around August and pull back a touch though the fall back to where they are right now. If that does in fact happen, I also predict the doom-and-gloomers will assume that we are going back in the toilet which isn't the case. Other than our massive debt, we have YEARS of pent-up demand. In a year from now, I expect to hear the word "inflation" fairly often.

Bill, if you can fill in where we are from Jan 1st to April 28th, that's my official 2012 percentage guess.

So I'm going to pick your prediction brain like I did Bill's ...any predictions on the PHX market during fall of 2013/spring 2014???? I know it's impossible to say and it depends on economy, interest rates, etc., but I'm curious what those in the know are guesstimating.

I'm thinking that there will be a new influx of people who foreclosed or short sold a few years ago when the market tanked, but who will be able to buy again in a year and a half - 2 yrs. Builders seem to think there'll be a demand, as they've started building again here in south Chandler and Gilbert.

Just curious if you have any insight...

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

...

Bill, if you can fill in where we are from Jan 1st to April 28th, that's my official 2012 percentage guess.

84.74 per sf..........Jan 1, 2012
94.54 per sf..........April 23, 2012

11.6% increase in price per square foot.

[Home Addict]

For investors, especially large corporations, the reason for buying homes in Phoenix and renting them out is for profit. They can make a decent profit, so they buy.

Now that home prices have gone up, the profit equation may have shifted. For example, the Atlanta market may offer better profit than Phoenix, since home prices there are still depressed while Phoenix has seen a remarkable rise.

Fewer investor buyers may temper the home price appreciation in the coming months. However, homeowners would probably be relieved, rightly or wrongly, that fewer investors will be buying in Phoenix.

[gtbguy]

Originally Posted by Home Addict

For investors, especially large corporations, the reason for buying homes in Phoenix and renting them out is for profit. They can make a decent profit, so they buy.

Now that home prices have gone up, the profit equation may have shifted. For example, the Atlanta market may offer better profit than Phoenix, since home prices there are still depressed while Phoenix has seen a remarkable rise.

Fewer investor buyers may temper the home price appreciation in the coming months. However, homeowners would probably be relieved, rightly or wrongly, that fewer investors will be buying in Phoenix.

I agree with you, also the rise in prices are not sustainable and can't continue to rise without jobs and a healthy local economy. It's been nice to see the increase but it can't stay this way for this short of period.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by gtbguy

I agree with you, also the rise in prices are not sustainable and can't continue to rise without jobs and a healthy local economy. It's been nice to see the increase but it can't stay this way for this short of period.

Why not?

It's still cheaper to buy than to rent, interest rates are low, and not everyone who is buying today is an investor.

The increase is sustainable - in many areas we're still seeing the pricing we had ten years ago.

When the economy is proclaimed to be "healthy" the deals will have long since passed. It'll be a great time to sell.