Phoenix Real Estate Market Keeps Tanking (Goodyear: college, car, rated)

[Fountainhillsorbust]

We bought in Fountain Hills in Sept 2011
My friend contacted my realtor and she told him that there were only 3 houses available in his price range and that the inventory in FH was very low.

[whodiman]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Thanks for the update Zippy.
It is going to be VERY interesting in the coming months. Did I mention yet that I'm happy I bought in while the selection was MASSIVE.

Yes, we appreciate detailed stories of what is happened. Thanks!

[bguar]

Originally Posted by ReadyFreddy

I know people who farted around looking at house after house all 2011 and now are complaining it's not fair. Sometimes you have to strike while the iron is hot or you lose your market.

I'm guessing the people who really just started looking in the past few months will have to wait out the shortage or move up the scale to the homes that aren't so in demand, the pricier ones. Not that most people are able, since normally they max out their house spending. But if prices DO go up 25% by Sept., they're going to be stuck paying that premium anyway, or not buying at all. May as well get the bigger house now and enjoy the appreciation yourself, if you possibly can.

Prices won't go up 25% by September. That's 6.25% per month. I could see 5% by then though, but I think it's unlikely. I bought in late January -- my house has appreciated 3% since I bought. If supply continues downwards, absolutely we will raise another 5% -- but I don't see that happening now that (from my understanding) banks have started foreclosing again after working out their legal issues from the past. Am I mistaken there?

[sh9730]

Bguar,

As terrifying a prospect as this may seem - you gotta read this whole thread - lots of posts already in here about whether there are or are not more foreclosures coming online here in PHOENIX in the future.

[ReadyFreddy]

25% by Sept. seems unlikely to me, too, but we've seen 40% per year before, and things weren't starting out deep in the bargain basement then. And it was a prediction from the (generally considered) top authority.

Quote=the Cromford Report--- "...We reiterate our forecast that positive annual appreciation will be recorded throughout 2012 and is likely to exceed 25% by September 2012..."

[bguar]

Originally Posted by sh9730

Bguar,

As terrifying a prospect as this may seem - you gotta read this whole thread - lots of posts already in here about whether there are or are not more foreclosures coming online here in PHOENIX in the future.

Well, I am making an assumption that now since banks have realized they can start foreclosing again with the previous foreclosure legal stuff behind them, that they will start doing so. If this is true, yes, there are many, many more coming. I read that Phoenix has one of the fastest foreclosure processes in the country (the process is slow... now, getting around to starting the process, who knows). But you know how stuff like that goes... who knows if it's true or not. But Zillow does seem to think price appreciations are happening.

[bguar]

Originally Posted by ReadyFreddy

25% by Sept. seems unlikely to me, too, but we've seen 40% per year before, and things weren't starting out deep in the bargain basement then. And it was a prediction from the (generally considered) top authority.

Quote=the Cromford Report--- "...We reiterate our forecast that positive annual appreciation will be recorded throughout 2012 and is likely to exceed 25% by September 2012..."

Would be awesome for my house value if that happened. But I just think it's unlikely. I hope I'm wrong though!

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by bguar

Prices won't go up 25% by September. That's 6.25% per month. I could see 5% by then though, but I think it's unlikely. I bought in late January -- my house has appreciated 3% since I bought. If supply continues downwards, absolutely we will raise another 5% -- but I don't see that happening now that (from my understanding) banks have started foreclosing again after working out their legal issues from the past. Am I mistaken there?

In the bottom ranges, we've effectively already had a 25 percent bump. It takes $90k to buy a house that was only worth $70k a few months ago- do the math, that's nearly 30 percent.

[sh9730]

Zippyman,

Agreed - a few posts above in this thread I pointed out how the median price in Pinal county went from 85K in March 2011 to 110K in March 2012.

[bguar]

Originally Posted by Zippyman

In the bottom ranges, we've effectively already had a 25 percent bump. It takes $90k to buy a house that was only worth $70k a few months ago- do the math, that's nearly 30 percent.

Wasn't it talking valley wide though? Or was it stating primarily for the $100k and under range?

My house was in the $300's when I bought it -- I just can't see a 25% increase on that. Granted, it is in the 85255 zip code and I do have really nice mountain views but still...

Hey... like I said -- if it happens, awesome! Then again, I don't plan on moving so I guess it doesn't really matter for me unless I re-finance for a much lower rate... which considering I'm already at 2.9% for a 10 year, I don't think it's going much lower.

Do you have any opinions on that market sector though? I don't subscribe to Cromford -- so I'm quite clueless when it comes to the whole picture. I wasn't buying for an investment.