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I have been watching houses in the Phoenix area for the past 6 months waiting for the right time to buy a vacation home.
Not one house that I have on any of my many watch lists has gone up in value, most in fact keep dropping every couple of weeks.....and some have been sold.....almost every sale has been lower than the asking price.
We will be flying out on April and hope to close on a property then, but I do expect to lose some value before it turns around.
We may be at the same place a lot of people were at in 2009 when they thought for sure it had reached bottom, only to discover is wasn't by far.
I still believe Europe is going to explode and gas is going to tank the economy (no pun intended..lol) further, I don't think anyone has a clue today what housing will be like in another 6 months.
The money I'm going to be spending is throw away cash, if it doesn't work out then no big deal....if it were otherwise I don't think I would be buying.
Captain Bill I find your comments about how quick offers are being put on homes not anywhere near what I am seeing.
How do you then explain all of the homes, hundreds if not thousands that are sitting more than 90 days out with no offers.....in the 100-175 range.....are all of these mls sites wrong?
First I would say that if you are uncomfortable buying now, then perhaps you should wait. I would not buy if I were uncomfortable.
I can understand why you would be skeptical since there is such a discrepancy in what you're seeing online, and hearing from me.
The national search sites are notorious for not updating their information. Agents only update the information on their own mls. We don't update it on the national sites because we don't have that type of access.
The national search sites get the initial listing information from the mls, and those sites are responsible for updating them after the agent updates the mls. But those sites don't update them regularly.
Consequently, much of what you are seeing may already be under contract and either AWC, Pending, or Closed.
An AWC, which is a short sale under contract, or a Pending, which is in escrow may be still showing Active on the national sites because they haven't updated them. It can take up to 6 months for that short sale to close.
That could be what you're seeing.
If you would like to send me some mls numbers I would be happy to check them out. Write the mls numbers down in a continuous line, each separated by a comma. That way I can quickly look them up.
Example: 5629411,4702156,1234567, and so on.
I'm not allowed to print my web site address on any thread, however, it is in my C-D profile, or you can PM me. My web site search goes directly into the mls and the information is updated by the mls every 4 hours.
You can also ask your Realtor about this, and s/he will probably confirm this.
...Captain Bill I find your comments about how quick offers are being put on homes not anywhere near what I am seeing...
Here is one example of a home that I was going to show a client tomorrow.
It has been on the market one day, and as I was getting ready to make the schedule, I find that it already has a contract and is showing AWC (short sale under contract, being negotiated with bank). 4745 E Laurel AVE Gilbert, AZ 85234....MLS # 4727014
The national sites will still show it as Active.
Here is one example of a home that I was going to show a client tomorrow.
It has been on the market one day, and as I was getting ready to make the schedule, I find that it already has a contract and is showing AWC (short sale under contract, being negotiated with bank). 4745 E Laurel AVE Gilbert, AZ 85234....MLS # 4727014
The national sites will still show it as Active.
One of the great things about the real estate market in this area is the ability for buyers to see the actual MLS (that's not the case in many, if not most of the country, I'd bet).
I learned real fast that listings on different websites were long gone, then I found a broker who gave access to the MLS, beautiful!
I only use local mls sites, not any national ones....and definately not Zillow.
The houses that they all generate are probably 95% of the time the same properties so I do believe they must be somewhat accurate.
I will probably end up spending between 130-150, and I'm not uncomfortable at all....been waiting for almost a year. Was first going to buy in Florida but you can most definately buy more house in Arizona than you can in the good areas of Florida.....minus the water of course.
My posts were meant to be more fact finding and understanding, Captain yours are exactly what my cousin has been telling me but I do see a major conflict with the local mls sites I monitor.
I only use local mls sites, not any national ones....and definately not Zillow.
The houses that they all generate are probably 95% of the time the same properties so I do believe they must be somewhat accurate.
I will probably end up spending between 130-150, and I'm not uncomfortable at all....been waiting for almost a year. Was first going to buy in Florida but you can most definately buy more house in Arizona than you can in the good areas of Florida.....minus the water of course.
My posts were meant to be more fact finding and understanding, Captain yours are exactly what my cousin has been telling me but I do see a major conflict with the local mls sites I monitor.
Good luck, but I think you are in for a shock when you get here. I have a friend who is looking in that price range and she is ready to pull out her hair - getting outbid on one after another at above the asking price on foreclosures or caught up forever waiting on the bank on short sale offers. I suppose it depends on where you are looking, though. She is pretty picky about what she wants.
I'm not even looking at any short sales, and I am pretty picky.
The daily reports two people are sending me are showing more than 35 active non short sale properties in just the section of the metro area I'm looking at....Mid North to West Surprise-Peoria area..nothing older than 10 years old.
I just did a seach on on the well know local sites and it brought up 34 active non short sale properties 130-150 ....do you think this is wrong?
I'm not even looking at any short sales, and I am pretty picky.
The daily reports two people are sending me are showing more than 35 active non short sale properties in just the section of the metro area I'm looking at....Mid North to West Surprise-Peoria area..nothing older than 10 years old.
I just did a seach on on the well know local sites and it brought up 34 active non short sale properties 130-150 ....do you think this is wrong?
When I said "picky" I mean about wanting a specific development/neighborhood as well as floorplan etc. There was ample selection there just this summer, but it is way down now.
I just did a seach on on the well know local sites and it brought up 34 active non short sale properties 130-150 ....do you think this is wrong?
Thanks for the information.
My search of Surprise of single family homes of newer than 2000 and larger than 1500 sq ft, shows 44 currently available homes. This is within the ballpark of your active listed homes. Two of the available homes are below 100k. Lowest priced home is 85k. Average list price is 134k.
As a comparison, I search closed single family homes of the past 3 months in Surprise. There were 414 closed homes, with 97 of them below 100k. There were 13 below 80k. Lowest priced home sold was 65k. Average closed price is 119k.
Of course, without knowing exactly what the homes are like, we'll never be 100% sure if this is a trend. It is only an educated guess based on averages. Hopefully, you will get a good home in Surprise for under 150k. Good luck.
I only use local mls sites, not any national ones....and definately not Zillow.
The houses that they all generate are probably 95% of the time the same properties so I do believe they must be somewhat accurate.
I will probably end up spending between 130-150, and I'm not uncomfortable at all....been waiting for almost a year. Was first going to buy in Florida but you can most definately buy more house in Arizona than you can in the good areas of Florida.....minus the water of course.
My posts were meant to be more fact finding and understanding, Captain yours are exactly what my cousin has been telling me but I do see a major conflict with the local mls sites I monitor.
The Capt was nice enough to supply this link on another thread.
See
Workbook: Under Contract LPSF (http://public.tableausoftware.com/views/UnderContractLPSF/Sheet1?:embed=y&:loadOrderID=0&:tabs=no&:display_c ount=yes - broken link)
Under the city section, de-select "all" and then scroll down to re-select Surprise. You will see that the under contract, weekly cost per square foot has absolutely gone up over the past 6 months. On 8-20-12, it was $58/sqft. Today, it is $67.
Now look at this link. It's forward looking (this is asking prices and listing prices). See http://www.altosresearch.com/researc...-estate-market PHOENIX, AZ Real Estate Market Report for March 04 2012[/url] . As you see, you will be looking at higher prices come April.
I bought a 2nd home in Surprise. Like you, it wasn't going to break me if it went down to zero value but I absolutely LOVE real estate and get a kick out of reading the tea leaves. I'm predicting the flat prices that you are seeing are neighborhoods like Surprise Farms. They might look good on MLS, but when you come down to visit you will see why the cost per square foot is so much less. When you visit Marley Park in Surprise, you will then see why the prices have been rising.
If you are coming down in April. DM me and I'll have you over for a beer.
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When you visit Marley Park in Surprise, you will then see why the prices have been rising.
