Quote:
Originally Posted by ArizonaBear
My opinion only here: late 2008 earliest or more likely 2009-10.
I swear we are seeing a repeat of the mess of 1988-90-------which took over 10 years to recover from.
In all fairness; this last housing 'boom' was a little more than a legal pyramid scheme------those who cashed out early (2005) did well with many others (including the banks/mortgage companies) holding the bag.
Wages certainly did not keep up.
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Phoenicians need to hope the housing and real estate market doesn't bottom out; that would be disastrous. The housing/construction industries in the Valley comprise, according to estimates I've heard, about 30% of the area's economy. For all the complaining people do about the rampant, endless sprawl and growth, there is a reason that it continues ad nauseum: it's the cornerstone of Phoenix's economy, and therefore necessary to ensure the economic vitality of the city. It's an unfortunate catch-22. People vent on this forum, and say things like "everything would be so much better if half of these people would just leave!" Well, no, it wouldn't. That would destroy the economy, and trust me, the state of the community would be a whole lot worse, not better.
What's lured so many employers and new jobs recently to the Valley is the abundance of cheap land, cheap housing, and relatively cheap cost of living compared to other major metropolitan centers in the western U.S. Once that ceases to be to be true, and thus ceases to be Phoenix's attraction- and it will- and those jobs start leaving, things will get very bad for a lot of people in Maricopa County.
As I've stated before, the continued prosperity of Phoenix, really its existence as a viable metropolitan area at all, is predicated on the assumption of continued cheap land, cheap water, cheap oil, and other necessary resources. That's a very dangerous assumption, IMO. There really just isn't any major industry or vital natural resource that it can exploit or lean on as an economic backbone. It's a city built for right now, without much thought as to the future consequences of so many people living in so hostile a climate and so barren & dry a landscape.
The ramifications will hit hard at some point, and this situation will catch up to Phoenix- when exactly, I'm not sure. The range of 2008-2010 sounds a bit soon. But I do have to say that I'm damn glad that I sold my house and got out when I did, b/c I sure wouldn't want to invest in Phoenix for the long term. Ask anyone who lived in New Orleans a few years ago- when the real $#!^storm hits, and everyone's trying to leave at once, the financial consequences for thousands will be dire.
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09-15-2007, 11:01 AM
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