Moody's predicting 17.8% price collapse in Phoenix home prices (Scottsdale, Fountain Hills: homes, buying)

[ArizonaBear]

Call me a snot here:

Back in 2005 I was predicting an average 40% drop in housing prices in Arizona.

In all fairness though; some of the 'drop' would be due to the 'dollar' value of homes staying even yet losing actual value courtesy of core inflation of 3% a year.

[HX_Guy]

And what's the most common thing with most of these?

THEY ARE OUT IN THE BOONIES!

[ibarrio]

And they sold for one time at ridiculous prices. This isn't Socal...

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Call me a snot here:

Back in 2005 I was predicting an average 40% drop in housing prices in Arizona.

In all fairness though; some of the 'drop' would be due to the 'dollar' value of homes staying even yet losing actual value courtesy of core inflation of 3% a year.

Gee, Bear, why do you bother with this joke called "core inflation"...?! As far as I know all of us eat and drive every day and buy electronics, etc. once in a while/blue moon.

[jco]

I've merged the 40% drop thread with this one as they're on the same topic.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Call me a snot here:

Back in 2005 I was predicting an average 40% drop in housing prices in Arizona.

In all fairness though; some of the 'drop' would be due to the 'dollar' value of homes staying even yet losing actual value courtesy of core inflation of 3% a year.

You were wrong then and you're still wrong. The "average" drop is nowhere near 40% and barring a recession of gigantic proportions it is not going to be half that much peak to trough.

[FunkyPioneer]

The average drop is between 30-40% 2006 was the peak and they have been droping hard since then. If you knew anything about economics you would freak right now. The value of the dollar is tanking bad, just check out the exchange rates with Canada. Inflation is roaring around 20% if you coun't food, houseing, gas etc (the Fed dosen't count this in their inflation calculations) Heres some more housing drops, you can't look at these numbers and say the drop is anything less than 40% and the scary thing is? Things are still dropping! ....


36404 N 27TH PL
Cave Creek, AZ 85331
Total Loss: $535,000 Percent Loss: 44.6%
Asking Price: $665,000
Bedrooms:4 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:4001 Listing History:
Down 5.0% from $699,900 On 2007-07-28

Days on market: 91
# of Times Listed: 1
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-01-25 for $500,000
Sold on 2005-04-28 for $800,000
Sold on 2006-03-14 for $1,200,000

MLS# 2810358 Google Maps



10260 E FILAREE LN
Scottsdale, AZ 85262
Total Loss: $520,000 Percent Loss: 34.7%
Asking Price: $979,900
Bedrooms:3 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:3001 Listing History:
Down 2.0% from $1,000,000 On 2007-08-25

Days on market: 63
# of Times Listed: 2
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-01-03 for $850,000
Sold on 2006-04-25 for $1,499,900

MLS# 2826420 Google Maps



40710 N CLUB POINTE DR
Phoenix, AZ 85086
Total Loss: $500,000 Percent Loss: 41.7%
Asking Price: $700,000
Bedrooms:5 Baths: 5 Sq. feet:4001 Listing History:
Down 8.5% from $765,000 On 2007-08-04

Days on market: 84
# of Times Listed: 2
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2004-11-24 for $517,978
Sold on 2005-10-31 for $750,000
Sold on 2006-11-28 for $1,200,000

MLS# 2812238 Google Maps



41717 N CLUB POINTE DR
Anthem, AZ 85086
Total Loss: $475,000 Percent Loss: 43.2%
Asking Price: $625,000
Bedrooms:4 Baths: 4 Sq. feet:4001 Listing History:
Down 30.5% from $899,900 On 2007-08-04
Down 10.6% from $699,000 On 2007-09-08

Days on market: 84
# of Times Listed: 2
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-12-28 for $698,860
Sold on 2006-05-26 for $1,100,000

MLS# 2812825 Google Maps



7692 E PONTEBELLA DR
Scottsdale, AZ 85262
Total Loss: $464,500 Percent Loss: 33.2%
Asking Price: $935,500
Bedrooms:4 Baths: 4 Sq. feet:4001 Listing History:
Down 2.1% from $955,500 On 2007-09-08

Days on market: 49
# of Times Listed: 2
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-06-10 for $810,000
Sold on 2006-04-18 for $1,400,000

MLS# 2838339 Google Maps



7487 E CAMINO RAYO DE LUZ
Scottsdale, AZ 85262
Total Loss: $451,000 Percent Loss: 31.1%
Asking Price: $999,000
Bedrooms:3 Baths: 4 Sq. feet:3501 Listing History:
Down 8.7% from $1,094,000 On 2007-07-28

Days on market: 91
# of Times Listed: 2
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-08-04 for $1,018,609
Sold on 2005-08-18 for $1,018,609
Sold on 2005-09-27 for $1,450,000

MLS# 2804678 Google Maps


4933 W FALLEN LEAF LN
Glendale, AZ 85310
Total Loss: $240,100 Percent Loss: 26.7%
Asking Price: $659,900
Bedrooms:4 Baths: 4 Sq. feet:3001
Days on market: 42
# of Times Listed: 2
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2006-10-31 for $900,000

MLS# 2843298 Google Maps



6944 E THUNDERBIRD RD
Scottsdale, AZ 85254
Total Loss: $240,100 Percent Loss: 37.5%
Asking Price: $399,900
Bedrooms:3 Baths: 2 Sq. feet:1801
Days on market: 91
# of Times Listed: 1
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2007-04-09 for $640,000

MLS# 2869086 Google Maps



12099 E CLINTON ST
Scottsdale, AZ 85259
Total Loss: $230,000 Percent Loss: 31.5%
Asking Price: $500,000
Bedrooms:3 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:3001 Listing History:
Down 34.2% from $760,000 On 2007-08-04
Down 26.5% from $680,000 On 2007-08-18
Down 21.9% from $640,000 On 2007-08-25
Down 10.7% from $560,000 On 2007-09-08

Days on market: 84
# of Times Listed: 2
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2003-07-29 for $394,000
Sold on 2006-08-21 for $730,000

MLS# 2812587 Google Maps



4101 E WALTANN LN
Phoenix, AZ 85032
Total Loss: $230,000 Percent Loss: 35.4%
Asking Price: $420,000
Bedrooms:3 Baths: 2 Sq. feet:2001 Listing History:
Down 35.4% from $650,000 On 2007-07-28
Down 12.5% from $479,900 On 2007-09-15

Days on market: 91
# of Times Listed: 3
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-03-28 for $650,000

MLS# 2843094 Google Maps



41910 N OAKLAND CT
Anthem, AZ 85086
Total Loss: $230,000 Percent Loss: 32.2%
Asking Price: $485,000
Bedrooms:4 Baths: 4 Sq. feet:3001 Listing History:
Down 10.8% from $543,900 On 2007-07-28
Down 3.0% from $499,900 On 2007-09-01

Days on market: 91
# of Times Listed: 1
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-07-05 for $715,000

MLS# 2687268 Google Maps



15249 W PIERSON ST
Goodyear, AZ 85338
Total Loss: $227,270 Percent Loss: 32.7%
Asking Price: $466,900
Bedrooms:6 Baths: 5 Sq. feet:4001 Listing History:
Down 9.7% from $516,900 On 2007-08-18
Down 6.6% from $499,900 On 2007-09-08
Down 5.1% from $491,900 On 2007-09-29

Days on market: 70
# of Times Listed: 2
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2006-09-26 for $694,170
Sold on 2006-09-26 for $694,170

MLS# 2821813 Google Maps



7656 E ASTER DR
Scottsdale, AZ 85260
Total Loss: $225,100 Percent Loss: 30.0%
Asking Price: $524,900
Bedrooms:4 Baths: 2 Sq. feet:2501 Listing History:
Down 4.5% from $549,900 On 2007-10-20

Days on market: 7
# of Times Listed: 2
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2005-06-27 for $650,000
Sold on 2006-07-11 for $750,000

MLS# 2862727 Google Maps



2635 E VERBENA DR
Phoenix, AZ 85048
Total Loss: $225,100 Percent Loss: 34.1%
Asking Price: $434,900
Bedrooms:5 Baths: 3 Sq. feet:3001 Listing History:
Down 8.4% from $474,900 On 2007-07-28
Down 6.5% from $464,900 On 2007-08-18
Down 2.2% from $444,900 On 2007-09-29

Days on market: 91
# of Times Listed: 1
Previous Sales:
Sold on 2006-05-26 for $660,000

MLS# 2777624 Google Maps

[FunkyPioneer]

Heres a link to the last house I posted http://homes.realtor.com/search/sear...624&ml=3&typ=7 Its all public information, no ones put the numbers together until now....

[Ponderosa]

You're cherry picking properties. The average is not 40%. Get your facts straight. The rest of your economic data are wrong too.

BTW, I hold a MBA. Where did you get your econ grounding, from a blog? You're just trolling here.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

You're cherry picking properties. The average is not 40%. Get your facts straight. The rest of your economic data are wrong too.

BTW, I hold a MBA. Where did you get your econ grounding, from a blog? You're just trolling here.

Note when I sense a '40% drop' in property values from their peak in 2005: enclaves like N Tempe, S Scottsdale, Arcadia section of Phx as well as Paradise Valley will drop slightly; it at all--------OTOH, Queen Creek, Surprise, Maricopa, etc. are taking severe hits in their values.

I am looking at an average here between all of the above.

And I stand by my prediction.