Next city or town in Phoenix Metro to break 100,000 population mark (Tempe: real estate, to buy)

[Pink Jazz]

As of the 2010 Census, Surprise was the most recent city or town to break the 100,000 population mark. What city or town do you think will be next?

I'd say that Buckeye, Goodyear, Queen Creek, and San Tan Valley (yes, I know it is technically unincorporated, but still counted by the Census) all have a chance to break the 100,000 population mark by the 2020 Census. Buckeye grew the fastest from 2000 to 2010, so I'd say it would be the next to break the 100,000 mark.

What does anyone here think?

[miran]

Latest 2010 Census:
Buckeye-50,876
Goodyear-65,271
San Tan Valley-81,321
Queen Creek-26,361

[Java Jolt]

Don't forget Avondale, population 76,238 as of the 2010 census and growing.

[Pink Jazz]

Originally Posted by Java Jolt

Don't forget Avondale, population 76,238 as of the 2010 census and growing.

Avondale isn't growing quite as fast as those other cities/towns that I listed, so I have doubts that it will be the next to break the 100,000 population mark.

Also, as a little side note, I'd expect Peoria will surpass Tempe in population by the 2020 census, as Gilbert did before the 2010 census.

[observer53]

I really don't care which one does. Yes, Peoria will likely pass Tempe, as Gilbert did. Neither of them are landlocked as Tempe is, and both have a larger area already incorporated, I assume, and are not completely built out, so it stands to reason their populations will grow more. Frankly, they can have the extra people. .

Does San Tan Valley even have actual delinated borders at this point, I wonder (other than ZIP code maps)? I'd like to see a map of where those 81,000 people in an unincorporated area actually live.

[Pink Jazz]

Originally Posted by observer53

I really don't care which one does. Yes, Peoria will likely pass Tempe, as Gilbert did. Neither of them are landlocked as Tempe is, and both have a larger area already incorporated, I assume, and are not completely built out, so it stands to reason their populations will grow more. Frankly, they can have the extra people. .

Does San Tan Valley even have actual delinated borders at this point, I wonder (other than ZIP code maps)? I'd like to see a map of where those 81,000 people in an unincorporated area actually live.

San Tan Valley is a Census Designated Place (CDP), so I think they define the official borders. It is indeed quite possible that the borders may be modified by the 2020 census unless San Tan Valley incorporates as a town or city.

[Valley Native]

I think it will be Goodyear or possibly Avondale. During the housing boom of the early to mid 2000s, people thought Buckeye would not only exceed 100,000 by now, it would be another Phoenix sized city within several decades. Not going to happen anytime soon. Buckeye was heavily affected by the economic downturn because they depended too much on real estate & new growth. All the more proof that exurban sprawl doesn't always equate to a better economy.

[Java Jolt]

Originally Posted by Andros 1337

Avondale isn't growing quite as fast as those other cities/towns that I listed, so I have doubts that it will be the next to break the 100,000 population mark.

Also, as a little side note, I'd expect Peoria will surpass Tempe in population by the 2020 census, as Gilbert did before the 2010 census.

I still think Avondale could hit 100,000 around the same time as Goodyear, both cities are pretty similar on development and many other things.

Only difference is Goodyear has more open land to build on than Avondale does so you might be right about Goodyear cracking the 100,000 mark first, but only if the market picks up and a lot of that land is developed.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Java Jolt

Only difference is Goodyear has more open land to build on than Avondale does so you might be right about Goodyear cracking the 100,000 mark first, but only if the market picks up and a lot of that land is developed.

Buckeye has even more empty land to build on, but that doesn't mean it will actually BE developed. I believe you're still in the mindset of the period prior to the economic downturn when exurban development was the "cool" thing to do. Seemed like everybody in 2005 & 2006 wanted to buy in Buckeye, Maricopa, or some other far flung 'burb. They were even predicting that Buckeye would reach 100,000 by the 2010 census, and possibly be a Phoenix sized city within a few more decades. Wishful thinking! All that land they annexed west of the White Tanks remains largely undeveloped.

[pbenjamin]

Jon Talton comments on Gilbert joining the nation's top 100 municipalities in population:

Rogue Columnist: Growthgasm!