Would you buy now - Gilbert (Phoenix, Chandler: sales, 2009, mortgage)

[burn2learn]

I lived in Gilbert and sold in 2005 and moved to the east coast. I'm coming back now and want to buy a new build in Gilbert. The market seems to be going down still. I really want new, should I expect increasing incentives or rising prices. Any info can help

[sonarsound]

Would you buy now - Gilbert

I know what I am saying:
DON'T BUY NOW - WAIT TILL 2008 2nd -or 3rd quarter - houses are going down!!! in end 2008 beginning 2009 - builders have to get rid of the 40000 houses empty in phoenix. they will reduce the price by 40 %.

[sablebaby]

Originally Posted by sonarsound

Would you buy now - Gilbert

I know what I am saying:
DON'T BUY NOW - WAIT TILL 2008 2nd -or 3rd quarter - houses are going down!!! in end 2008 beginning 2009 - builders have to get rid of the 40000 houses empty in phoenix. they will reduce the price by 40 %.

I don't believe they will go down 40%. We are still the fastest growing city and they all need homes.

I'd say it's a pretty good time to buy. I think we need to encourage people to buy now so the inventory will go down and then we can start appreciating again. I'm sick of the advice of wait a while until they go down. How does that help any of us in the long run??? I also don't like the advice of getting the best deal by negotiating the price way down. Once again, how is that helping us go up?? Think about it.

[SMG]

Originally Posted by sonarsound

Would you buy now - Gilbert

I know what I am saying:
DON'T BUY NOW - WAIT TILL 2008 2nd -or 3rd quarter - houses are going down!!! in end 2008 beginning 2009 - builders have to get rid of the 40000 houses empty in phoenix. they will reduce the price by 40 %.

This is another person predicting the future. No body knows what is going to happen. I am a Realtor. I do all of my work in Gilbert and Chandler. I am not going to say, "yes, buy now" or "No, don't buy now". I do not operate that way. I think if somebody needs a home that there are certainly many to choose from. but, for some guy to pop off and say "they will reduce the price by 40 %" is simply speculation and very irresponsible. Sonarsound, if you KNOW that homes will drop 40% in the next year please post your data or URL that backs that up..

[Ponderosa]

In spite of the dire predictions, it appears that the economy is weathering the sub-prime crisis quite well and investor confidence remains high (Dow over 14000 to a new record today). If the overall US economy doesn't tank, it is a matter of time before prices stabilize in AZ. Other than a forced sales and in a few far-flung areas, prices haven't moved much in the last year anyway. New homes in some areas are priced near or below cost and anecdotal reports both on the forum and in the press suggest that some builders are raising prices now and cutting back on the incentives. New homes, particularly at the bottom end, seem to me like a good deal at this time with big incentives, financing deals, and a great selection of lots at reduced premiums. I'd be buying myself in another part of town, but don't want the hassle of selling into this market. (and I would never buy new again, but that is another post )

[MotleyCrew]

If builders slash prices by 40%, I will get back in line. I see some fire sales right now to dump the inventory. I would buy if I were ready to buy and live in my home and think of it as a home, not just an investment. It may dip downward a little, but it will go back up sooner or later.

[steve22]

Originally Posted by sablebaby

I don't believe they will go down 40%. We are still the fastest growing city and they all need homes.

I'd say it's a pretty good time to buy. I think we need to encourage people to buy now so the inventory will go down and then we can start appreciating again. I'm sick of the advice of wait a while until they go down. How does that help any of us in the long run??? I also don't like the advice of getting the best deal by negotiating the price way down. Once again, how is that helping us go up?? Think about it.

I don't think anyone's interested in helping the value of your home go up. They're interested in getting the best deal on a house they can- and I don't know how you can fault a person for that. Your loss is someone else's gain, that's how it goes.

And all indications are that the housing market is a long way from the bottom of its downswing. The problem in Phoenix is that prices were inflated way above their actual worth during the run-up from '05 to '06- gains in value of 40% or more are NOT real in that short a time frame. Essentially, with the collapse of the subprime mortgage industry, lending criteria are so strict now that entry-level or middle-income buyers making the average Phoenix income right now are priced out of the market. So basically, until there is a correction, nothing's going to move. Prices haven't come down much, yet- but they will. Until they do, things will stay stagnant.

[MotleyCrew]

We have dipped but not as bad as Florida and some parts of CA. I think we will survive the storm. A few builders in the Maricopa area actually raised their prices lately. What a shock.

[SMG]

I agree Motley. I really take exception to the soothsayers that know exactly how much the market will drop, which quarter it will happen, etc. the OP is talking about moving here and buying a home and the Bozo that I referred to earlier knows allabout what is going to happen and sees fit to make recommendations to the guy.
That is realkly wreckless. People guess and speculate, but when they pretend to know more than they do they need to be called out on it.
The bottom line is that nobody knows.

[sierraAZ]

Originally Posted by MotleyCrew

A few builders in the Maricopa area actually raised their prices lately. What a shock.

Really? Which ones?