When will Phoenix surpass Houston as the 4th largest city? (Tucson: houses, employment)

[jd433]

O.K. here we go,

I lived in the Phoenix area for 11 years until this past January.

I now reside in the Houston area. I know Phoenix inside and out like the back of my hand. From Apache junction and Queen Creek to Surprise and Buckeye or even Tonopah I can tell you that in Phoenix I used to be excited about all the growth I saw. I watched the 101 and the 202 get built I saw the new stadium go up from scratch and all the houses being built. I was watching all the projects planned for downtown and waited excitedly for them to finish. I moved there in 1996 when there was only something like 1.1 million people in Phoenix and about 3 million in the metro area.

I now live in Houston and believe me there is a lot more to get excited about here than there is in Phoenix. I think that the Houston area is even building more Houses than Phoenix has over the past couple of years.

I can tell you that compared to Phoenix houston has bigger things going on. Over here it's happening. Things that I used to wait years for in Phoenix are now happening in months. Phoenix has some great projects in it's down town right now but those projects would get lost in all the developement here.

I used to drive down the 101 on the west side and watch the stadium going up and I was really interested when anything was being built.

Now I drive down the I-10 From Katy to Houston and believe me if you want to see a show where big things are happening come here. I mean they have tall buildings going up EVERYWHERE. I have never seen so many boom cranes in my life.

The corridor from Katy to Sugar Land makes the growth that occured in Gilbert and Chandler over the last 10 years look like childs play.

Here is another interesting idea. Houston is a true Big City with big established and growing industries. Heck even out here in Katy KBR is putting up a 1 million square foot Headquarters building with some 3500 employees going to it and thats just one of the many big things happening here.

I remember when the big thing in the East valley was the new intel plant in Chandler. Man, that little deal would get lost in all the buzz around here.

Phoenix as a City compared to Houston population wise. Well Phoenix has been adding a few more people than Houston but not the Metro area as a whole the Houston area is growing faster than Phoenix since 2000. I think right now Phoenix has like 1.52 million people and Houston about 2.2 million.
If they both grew at the same rate as they have since 2000 Phoenix would pass Houston in the year 2136. I think however that the population in Phoenix will plateau as it matures and may even be flattening out right now with the economic problems and the problems with the illegals leaving.

Houston I can say focuses more on economic growth than Phoenix they have way better economic planning for the future and have attracted much better industries. I think this in the end will keep Houston ahead of Phoenix. Phoenix has Major problems right now in attracting new industry because they don't have a high level of educated people.

[JDish2000]

Isn't the Houston area deep rooted in the oil industry?

Are the oil companies still making record profits?

Wouldn't that assist the Houston area in prospering?

[fcorrales80]

I wasn't going to post because I didn't think this thread was very important or very factually based, but I had to after reading jd433's post.

I am in the International Business field here in Phoenix, working with a German firm from Frankfurt and am still studying my field at W.P. Carey (ASU). I have been studying the economic prospects of the West and Phoenix in particular for years and comparing this region and this city to others. Houston being one of them. What I have found and what others have found including the Brookings Institute, Urban Land Institute, Economist, and many more is that Phoenix will be a perpetually growing city for the foreseable future. Meaning, that in my life time, I'm 27, Phoenix will grow at a rate either slightly higher or lower (depending on the economic climate of the time) that is has during the 2000's. There are problems that will cause much tribulation, but they will be overcome. I do not have the time to outline and hyperlink all that can be said, but I will try to summerize.

First the comparison: Houstin is and will lose more federal funding because of EPA violations against the Clean Air Act and for pollution from its energy (oil, petroleum) industry. Houston is one of the most polluted cities in the nation and its smog rivals Los Angeles' which says much about a region and its main industries given that the L.A. and Southern California Megalopis has nearly 3 times the population of metro Houston. Not only is this industry growing obsolete, but will need to transfer its momentum from oil based to more enviromentally friendly resources. Phoenix is actually leading the way in this industry. One of the largest solar producing firms in the world, another German company that I am not working with, is in colaboration with APS (Arizona Public Services) and other industries aligned with ASU's School of Global Sustainability (the only school of its kind in the WORLD which is attracting billions from other nations including powerful cities like Dubai and nations like China). Arizona will soon have the largest solar power plant in the nation and one of the largest in the world right in Phoenix's backyard.

Phoenix may not have many Fortune 500 companies, it has 6 at the moment, but Phoenix is a hot bed for small business and for technology based business. It has ranked no. 1 in this category for most of the decade leading up to 2010. Here is just one link to a study:

Business & Small Business

As most people know, small businesses employ the largest number of employees as a sector. Fortune 500's do not employ nearly the same number of people. Phoenix has a large number of genomics firms including one of the largest scientific, research, and business entity in the world: Tgen (Translational Genomics Consortium) and the IGC (International Genomics). The health and medical research industry is one of the largest in the nation, this is the future of medicine and health care and it will boom in the next decade, making the Fortune 500's of today look like child's play.

The downtown areas. While Houston currently has bigger buildings and more office space, downtown Phoenix has a larger population. Houston's downtown is not even ranked among cities with downtown populations, but just as a reference, Phoenix's downtown has a population of 6,000, that is in a one square mile area by 1.5 square mile area. In comparison, downtown Denver which also has more office space and larger buildings, only has 4,000. All three cities' downtowns are experiencing significant investment. I looked at downtown condo developments and Phoenix surpasses both Denver and Houston. There are more than a dozen large scale downtown highrises and many more high density developments under construction or planning to break ground in 2009. That does not include uptown Phoenix which has many more planned as well. An Isreali firm is one of the companies investing in the city. Dubai officials have also struck a pact with the mayor of Phoenix and new business venture will soon begin. Lufthansa (the largest German airline) will begin flying no stop to Phoenix once again. Along with airlines from the Middle East, and Asia. Phoenix already has many non-stop flights to Europe. As an example, British Airways flies non-stop out of Phoenix.

Water...this is the largest hurdle and will cost billions to maintain the flow but it will be done. Water is a problem in every city in the world, including Houston. Phoenix and Southern California with ASU's School of Global Sustainability are researching large scale desalinization plants on the scale of those in Isreal and the Middle East. The 7 Western states using the Colorado river have reached a momumental agreement on the management of the river and new technology already employed will help alleviate the overuse of this river. Reclamation will be expanded will make little waste of water in the West. Reclamation for irrigation, effluent for reuse, and desalinization will allow the Colorado and other western rivers to remain flowing. Last year the largest resevoir along the Colorado, Lake Mead and Powell, were at their lowest levels EVER. This year, because of less taxing of the system and a good winter, the levels are at 70% of capacity whereas they were at 40% a couple of years ago.

The urban heat island effects every major city, even NYC. But because of its cooler climate, it doesn't have an impact like Phoenix, Atlanta, and yes Houston's heat island. But again, industry and new technology are and will elminate the growing island. ASU's (again) School of Global Sustainability is the spearhead for new building techniques and materials that will allow heat to dissipate quickly after sunset. LEED Certification is the new building standard in Phoenix and new highrises follow guidelines that make new buildings here among the leaders of "green" buildings. There is so much to say about this, but I am running out of time.

I wanted to mention the politics of Arizona and Phoenix quickly. Arizona has always been a "red" state but not in way of the South and other Bible Belt republican states like Texas. Arizona can best be described as a "Goldwater Republican" state. A live and let live democracy where republicans are fiscally conservative but socially moderate and dare I say liberal. Phoenix, Tucson, and Coconino County (Flagstaff) are anomolies however. These three areas are far more liberal than the rest of the state. Arizona was the first and ONLY state where voters did not ban gay marriage that would have added an amendment to the state constitution; Colorado and Texas have. The religious folk with the Mormons at the lead, are fighting this AGAIN but I hope they fail...again.

Phoenix continually passes new taxes and bonds for the investment in the city. What holds back some k-12 public schools in Arizona is the inability to vote for taxes to better fund education in the rest of the state. Some of the best school districts in the state in Arizona are in urban areas where a large tax base exists and where bonds for these school can be raised in the districts. The Phoenix elementary school system has some nationally excelling schools, like Kenilworth. Gilbert, Chandler, Glendale, and Scottsdale also have great school systems because their tax base is willing to pay. Currently under discussion is the unification of municipal school systems in Arizona which will benefit the children allowing for more oversight, higher standards, more money, and cohesion that is currently lacking in Arizona. However, the Universities in AZ are amongst the most reputible. Many of ASU's schools are ranked in the top 25 in the nation and some are unrivaled in the world...like the School of Global Sustainability. ASU's Honors Program (no. 11 in the nation), W.P. Carey School of Business (no. 22 in the nation), School of Nursing, Walter Kronkite School of Journalism, and the bio-tech schools and research facilities are top ranked. And I don't have time to incorporate UofA's schools and medical programs.

Phoenix is a very viable city and will continue its march to the top in reputation and prominensce in the years to come, as the 4th or 5th largest U.S. city. Oh one more thing, in 1950, the entire metro region in Phoenix had 396,375...the Cities of Houston and Galveston had over 1 million. Today the Houston area has 5,628,101 and Phoenix metro has 4,269,427. Using percentage of population is an a way to view population changes as population gains happen exponentially...in 1950 metro Phoenix had 39.6% of Houston's population, where as today Phoenix has 75.9% of metro Houston's population. Its a mathematical certainty that Phoenix will one day pass Houston but when that will happen can only be estimated and it has been estimated that by 2025 the Phoenix metro area may have more people then the Houston area. And Phoenix is not landlocked. It can continue growing, but will most likely not leave its currently boundaries...that's not true for its suburbs however. Phoenix will continue to infill and grow skyward instead of out.

[LeftHook]

Originally Posted by sierraAZ

While I'm a big fan of looking back at historical data, I don't think you can compare Phoenix and Detroit. Detroit's boom was caused by one industry and its troubles caused the bust. Life in AZ may become harder for local working residents, but there will always be migration (at least retirees) due to the nice weather and lack of natural disasters. Of course, "disasters" can be engineered anywhere and I don't have a crystal ball, but that's a different topic.

Ponderosa, I'm not trying to diss your remark, because for the most part you are right. However the thing which really was Detroit's downfall was NOT the Japanese Auto Industry, but the 1967 Detroit riot!

I was born and raised there and I can tell you for a fact, that when the riot occurred, people (mostly white) got the #!#+*% outta there! We lost our tax base, businesses said: "Hasta La Vista, etc,etc. "Detroit used to be da bomb"...Now it looks like it was hit by de bomb!

[jd433]

QOUTE by fcorrales: Today the Houston area has 5,628,101 and Phoenix metro has 4,269,427.

Could you please source this. And yes a lot of Houstons momentum right now is related to energy. So was the momentum in Silicon valley related to IT in the late 90's. They are both legitimate industries.

Energy is a great catylist and will continue to be in the future. As well as a lot of the energy sector here is related to the oil industry there is also a lot of it related to alternative fuels. Houston leads the nation in alternative fuel research. Remember Houston is the Energy capital of the world not just the Oil capital of the world.

Also as you said in 1950 the Houston area only had about 600,000 more People than the Phoenix area and now it has about 1.3 million more People than Phoenix. By your own admission Houston is adding more people than Phoenix and if it continues at the same numerical rate Phoenix will never catch up.

In order for the Phoenix metro to conjur up 4.2 million people they need an area 14,000 sq miles large WOW!! that would be a circle almost 135 miles across. Now I know that if you drove in any direction 67 miles from Downtown Phoenix you would be way,way out in the middle of the desert and they still consider that part of the PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA. I am talking about areas that are extremely rural and isolated. Why don't they just expand it out a couple of hundred more miles then the Phoenix metro would have more people than Houston. HA!HA!

Of course Phoenix has economic growth and international interest and investments which is great but it is not at the same rate as Houston. This is real easy to see just look at the presence of foreign companies in the two cities. Phoenix isn't even close. Also look at the diversity of the populations. Why aren't as many foreigners migrating to Phoenix? And I don't mean illegal aliens.

[fcorrales80]

There aren't as many foreigners migrating to Phoenix? Says who, you? I haven't found one study that supports your claim. While Houston does have more foreign investment and companies for now, that won't be sustained. And sorry to break it to you, but Phoenix is the new technology leader for Energy given that fuels and other non-renewable sources that underline the Houston area will continue their decline and their polluting attributes are losing popularity with the rest of the world.

Look a few pages back to one post that shows the Houston skyline, the smog that day the photo was shot was probably a day that surpassed L.A.'s smog level. That my friend, will hurt Houston's reputation and will cause more problems for the area. Phoenix is one of the most ethnically diverse cities, and illegals are actually leaving the state in record numbers according to the Urban Land Institute, the Census Bereau, the Morrison Institute, and on and on...but legal immigrants continue to migrate to Phoenix.

If you look at the percentage stated in my post, you will see that in 1950 Phoenix had 39.6% of the population of Houston and that gap has closed to 75.9%. So only 24.1% to go and Phoenix will surpass Houston's population. You saying that: "By your own admission Houston is adding more people than Phoenix and if it continues at the same numerical rate Phoenix will never catch up," is plain wrong as I actually said the exact opposite. The population counts are estimates from the Census, Brookings Institutes, and a Northwestern study that I help facilitate.

You can also google "phoenix metro population" and "houston metro population" and find similar numbers. And read the rest of my post, Phoenix will be much more viable than Houston as it wil continue to be more important in terms of foreign investment as well. The research and technology development in Phoenix is of much more importance than the archaic oil industry in Houston.

[Steve-o]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Phoenix is one of the most ethnically diverse cities

Compared to what? Oklahoma City maybe? NYC, Chicago and L.A.? No.

[fcorrales80]

LOL, Steve-o, well given that those cities have millions more than Phoenix, yeah no. But compared to metro areas, yes. Phoenix is the 13th largest metro area, and its minority population is at pace with that ranking.

[steve22]

And Phoenix is not landlocked.

Huh??? Care to elaborate here?

[fcorrales80]

Cities like Tempe in the Phoenix area are landlocked by other cities: Phoenix, Mesa, Chandler, Gilbert, Scottsdale, and Guadalupe surround Tempe, landlocking it. Tempe is growing skyward and has many highrises under construction around the Lake and near Mill Ave. Phoenix However, can grow North, Northwest, West and South over the Estrella Mountains as Goodyear has. There is open space in Buckeye and as far west as one would hope the metro area will never reach. There are many in the Sustainability field that hope Maricopa county will enact an urban boundary.