When will Phoenix surpass Houston as the 4th largest city? (Maricopa: home builders, unemployment)

[jd433]

Houston ranks # 1

National -- Foreign Direct Investment Destination
Source: The Perryman Group (as reported in the Houston Business Journal ) – April 18, 2008

Houston ranks # 1

Nominal Job Growth (March ‘07 to March ‘08) Just this year??
Source: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: February 2008, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics press release – April 2, 2008

Houston ranks # 1

National -- Wind Power Capacity
Source: American Wind Power Association (as reported in the Houston Business Journal ) – April 2, 2008

Houston ranks # 1

Fastest Job Growth (March ‘07 to March ‘08)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – April 2008

Houston ranks # 1

National -- Biotechnology Financial Incentives Don't forget the Texas Medical Center is the largest Medical center in the World!!
Source: FierceBiotech – February 19, 2008

Houston ranks #1

New Housing Starts 2007

This is a City that is on it's way down????????

[tolovefromANFIELD]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

I wasn't going to post because I didn't think this thread was very important or very factually based, but I had to after reading jd433's post.

I am in the International Business field here in Phoenix, working with a German firm from Frankfurt and am still studying my field at W.P. Carey (ASU). I have been studying the economic prospects of the West and Phoenix in particular for years and comparing this region and this city to others. Houston being one of them. What I have found and what others have found including the Brookings Institute, Urban Land Institute, Economist, and many more is that Phoenix will be a perpetually growing city for the foreseable future. Meaning, that in my life time, I'm 27, Phoenix will grow at a rate either slightly higher or lower (depending on the economic climate of the time) that is has during the 2000's. There are problems that will cause much tribulation, but they will be overcome. I do not have the time to outline and hyperlink all that can be said, but I will try to summerize.

First the comparison: Houstin is and will lose more federal funding because of EPA violations against the Clean Air Act and for pollution from its energy (oil, petroleum) industry. Houston is one of the most polluted cities in the nation and its smog rivals Los Angeles' which says much about a region and its main industries given that the L.A. and Southern California Megalopis has nearly 3 times the population of metro Houston. Not only is this industry growing obsolete, but will need to transfer its momentum from oil based to more enviromentally friendly resources. Phoenix is actually leading the way in this industry. One of the largest solar producing firms in the world, another German company that I am not working with, is in colaboration with APS (Arizona Public Services) and other industries aligned with ASU's School of Global Sustainability (the only school of its kind in the WORLD which is attracting billions from other nations including powerful cities like Dubai and nations like China). Arizona will soon have the largest solar power plant in the nation and one of the largest in the world right in Phoenix's backyard.

Phoenix may not have many Fortune 500 companies, it has 6 at the moment, but Phoenix is a hot bed for small business and for technology based business. It has ranked no. 1 in this category for most of the decade leading up to 2010. Here is just one link to a study:

Business & Small Business

As most people know, small businesses employ the largest number of employees as a sector. Fortune 500's do not employ nearly the same number of people. Phoenix has a large number of genomics firms including one of the largest scientific, research, and business entity in the world: Tgen (Translational Genomics Consortium) and the IGC (International Genomics). The health and medical research industry is one of the largest in the nation, this is the future of medicine and health care and it will boom in the next decade, making the Fortune 500's of today look like child's play.

The downtown areas. While Houston currently has bigger buildings and more office space, downtown Phoenix has a larger population. Houston's downtown is not even ranked among cities with downtown populations, but just as a reference, Phoenix's downtown has a population of 6,000, that is in a one square mile area by 1.5 square mile area. In comparison, downtown Denver which also has more office space and larger buildings, only has 4,000. All three cities' downtowns are experiencing significant investment. I looked at downtown condo developments and Phoenix surpasses both Denver and Houston. There are more than a dozen large scale downtown highrises and many more high density developments under construction or planning to break ground in 2009. That does not include uptown Phoenix which has many more planned as well. An Isreali firm is one of the companies investing in the city. Dubai officials have also struck a pact with the mayor of Phoenix and new business venture will soon begin. Lufthansa (the largest German airline) will begin flying no stop to Phoenix once again. Along with airlines from the Middle East, and Asia. Phoenix already has many non-stop flights to Europe. As an example, British Airways flies non-stop out of Phoenix.

Water...this is the largest hurdle and will cost billions to maintain the flow but it will be done. Water is a problem in every city in the world, including Houston. Phoenix and Southern California with ASU's School of Global Sustainability are researching large scale desalinization plants on the scale of those in Isreal and the Middle East. The 7 Western states using the Colorado river have reached a momumental agreement on the management of the river and new technology already employed will help alleviate the overuse of this river. Reclamation will be expanded will make little waste of water in the West. Reclamation for irrigation, effluent for reuse, and desalinization will allow the Colorado and other western rivers to remain flowing. Last year the largest resevoir along the Colorado, Lake Mead and Powell, were at their lowest levels EVER. This year, because of less taxing of the system and a good winter, the levels are at 70% of capacity whereas they were at 40% a couple of years ago.

The urban heat island effects every major city, even NYC. But because of its cooler climate, it doesn't have an impact like Phoenix, Atlanta, and yes Houston's heat island. But again, industry and new technology are and will elminate the growing island. ASU's (again) School of Global Sustainability is the spearhead for new building techniques and materials that will allow heat to dissipate quickly after sunset. LEED Certification is the new building standard in Phoenix and new highrises follow guidelines that make new buildings here among the leaders of "green" buildings. There is so much to say about this, but I am running out of time.

I wanted to mention the politics of Arizona and Phoenix quickly. Arizona has always been a "red" state but not in way of the South and other Bible Belt republican states like Texas. Arizona can best be described as a "Goldwater Republican" state. A live and let live democracy where republicans are fiscally conservative but socially moderate and dare I say liberal. Phoenix, Tucson, and Coconino County (Flagstaff) are anomolies however. These three areas are far more liberal than the rest of the state. Arizona was the first and ONLY state where voters did not ban gay marriage that would have added an amendment to the state constitution; Colorado and Texas have. The religious folk with the Mormons at the lead, are fighting this AGAIN but I hope they fail...again.

Phoenix continually passes new taxes and bonds for the investment in the city. What holds back some k-12 public schools in Arizona is the inability to vote for taxes to better fund education in the rest of the state. Some of the best school districts in the state in Arizona are in urban areas where a large tax base exists and where bonds for these school can be raised in the districts. The Phoenix elementary school system has some nationally excelling schools, like Kenilworth. Gilbert, Chandler, Glendale, and Scottsdale also have great school systems because their tax base is willing to pay. Currently under discussion is the unification of municipal school systems in Arizona which will benefit the children allowing for more oversight, higher standards, more money, and cohesion that is currently lacking in Arizona. However, the Universities in AZ are amongst the most reputible. Many of ASU's schools are ranked in the top 25 in the nation and some are unrivaled in the world...like the School of Global Sustainability. ASU's Honors Program (no. 11 in the nation), W.P. Carey School of Business (no. 22 in the nation), School of Nursing, Walter Kronkite School of Journalism, and the bio-tech schools and research facilities are top ranked. And I don't have time to incorporate UofA's schools and medical programs.

Phoenix is a very viable city and will continue its march to the top in reputation and prominensce in the years to come, as the 4th or 5th largest U.S. city. Oh one more thing, in 1950, the entire metro region in Phoenix had 396,375...the Cities of Houston and Galveston had over 1 million. Today the Houston area has 5,628,101 and Phoenix metro has 4,269,427. Using percentage of population is an a way to view population changes as population gains happen exponentially...in 1950 metro Phoenix had 39.6% of Houston's population, where as today Phoenix has 75.9% of metro Houston's population. Its a mathematical certainty that Phoenix will one day pass Houston but when that will happen can only be estimated and it has been estimated that by 2025 the Phoenix metro area may have more people then the Houston area. And Phoenix is not landlocked. It can continue growing, but will most likely not leave its currently boundaries...that's not true for its suburbs however. Phoenix will continue to infill and grow skyward instead of out.

UHHHHH....every 50km reply you have, it starts with well "I am studying at WP Carey school of business at ASU" .......................

How lucky for us.............................

[vegaspilgrim]

fcorrales80, the developments you mention in your post are great, but most of them are nothing more than great ideas come up by academics at ASU and projects that may or may not ever occur. Your post sounds like it was written by the Chamber of Commerce. A little too pie in the sky. ASU Global Institute of Sustainability? The thing is a practically a brand new concept that hasn't produced *anything* yet. Let's see the results first before singing about how "innovative" it is. Michael Crow has renamed a half a dozen schools at ASU with names that sound cool; just because it's one of the only schools with the word "sustainability" in the title doesn't mean much by itself. Rooftop gardens on a few elitist highrise developments are going to "eliminate" the extreme urban heat island effect for the entire metropolitan area of Phoenix? Nothing short of a nuclear bomb levelling the whole place is going to "eliminate" that problem. Massive desalinization projects sound cool, but they are extremely expensive. Not to mention the little problem that Phoenix is hundreds of miles away from the nearest ocean. It's Israeli, not "Isreali" by the way. In the vast majority of the land area of the 4.1 million population Phoenix metro area, I don't see anything innovative going on. No offense, but I think you fail to realize just how gargantuan in size the built up Phoenix metropolitan area is. Masterplanned communities with golf courses and new pools being constructed in everybody's backyards are still being constructed like no tomorrow. Infill and highrise development represents a miniscule sliver of the development going on in Phoenix. So while there are a lot of great ideas out there as to how Phoenix could be made a better place in the future, it's time to land back down on planet earth for the time being.

[fcorrales80]

I must say, I love this forum, I recently discovered this online and love reading people's opinion. I haven't commented nearly as much as I would like, but I will start. As I mentioned before, my professional career and educational career are now consentrated on International Business and Phoenix Economic Growth. So I have researched this extensively and continue doing so with other institutes and with my own employer. I also like that people on this forum are actually cordial and do not pesonally attack one another as in other forums. Makes for great educational material, especially on opinions, be they right or wrong or close.

[Steve-o]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

LOL, Steve-o, well given that those cities have millions more than Phoenix, yeah no. But compared to metro areas, yes. Phoenix is the 13th largest metro area, and its minority population is at pace with that ranking.

I dont notice it at all when Im in PHX. Perhaps its because ethnicities are not grouped together like they are in NYC, etc? I dont hear dozens of languages being spoken by residents (not tourists). I dont see block after block of storefronts in foreign languages. I dont see different architectural styles lent by the different ethnicities. I dont see entire neighborhoods of Polish, Irish, Germans, Lithuanians, Russians, etc, etc. I guess PHX conceals its minorities too well? Minus Hispanics of course....

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by jd433

Houston ranks # 1

National -- Foreign Direct Investment Destination
Source: The Perryman Group (as reported in the Houston Business Journal ) – April 18, 2008

Houston ranks # 1

Nominal Job Growth (March ‘07 to March ‘08) Just this year??
Source: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: February 2008, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics press release – April 2, 2008

Houston ranks # 1

National -- Wind Power Capacity
Source: American Wind Power Association (as reported in the Houston Business Journal ) – April 2, 2008

Houston ranks # 1

Fastest Job Growth (March ‘07 to March ‘08)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – April 2008

Houston ranks # 1

National -- Biotechnology Financial Incentives Don't forget the Texas Medical Center is the largest Medical center in the World!!
Source: FierceBiotech – February 19, 2008

Houston ranks #1

New Housing Starts 2007

This is a City that is on it's way down????????

And your point is? Re-read my post. Some of your statistics can be disputed. Windpower in Houston is miniscule and doesn't supply a vast majority of the population, when the solar power plant is incorporated into the grid in Phoenix, a quarter of the population will be served. And I said that Houston receives more direct forgien investment, for now. Las Vegas and Phoenix have built more houses in 2000-2007 than Houston according to the Census Bereau and Morrison Insitutes. The studies I listed before are by non-partisan groups, your "studies" are conducted by those will investment interest...not the most reliable.

[TheseGoTo11]

Phoenix MSA's domestic net migration has blown Houston's away. 300,000 from 2000 to 2005 to just 60,000. Houston, unlike Atlanta and Phoenix, relies heavily on immigration, and actually had negative domestic migration during the oil busts in the 80s and 90s.

Phoenix has been #1 in domestic net migration since the early 90s, but it's a little light on immigration considering its growth and proximity to the border, trailing Boston, Chicago, DC, NY, and other int'l gateway metros.

Houston's primary source of new residents is Mexico, Phoenix's primary source of new residents is Los Angeles.

Both cities have laughable downtowns, although I expect Phoenix to improve over the next 10 years with light rail and Copper Square development, much like San Diego's Gaslamp has since the 90s. Houston light rail is a nice 1st step, but really only part of town that has any appeal is the Rice University/Museum District neighborhood.

Phoenix is in much better shape with growing technology industries, while Houston has to compete against Austin and Dallas within its own state. But those areas attracted domestic residents during the tech bust, which Houston couldn't do during the oil bust.

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by Steve-o

I dont notice it at all when Im in PHX. Perhaps its because ethnicities are not grouped together like they are in NYC, etc? I dont hear dozens of languages being spoken by residents (not tourists). I dont see block after block of storefronts in foreign languages. I dont see different architectural styles lent by the different ethnicities. I dont see entire neighborhoods of Polish, Irish, Germans, Lithuanians, Russians, etc, etc. I guess PHX conceals its minorities too well? Minus Hispanics of course....

Oh well, too bad for you, but hey are here and I works with them as well. And no they aren't in segregated communities but they are incorporated into the population...a.k.a. less disenfranchisment.

[Steve-o]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Oh well, too bad for you, but hey are here and I works with them as well. And no they aren't in segregated communities but they are incorporated into the population...a.k.a. less disenfranchisment.

As much as I enjoy integration, I also love it when I can to to Chicago and hit up Germantown or Chinatown or Little Village (Hispanic) or Andersonville (Swedish), etc, etc, etc, and actually feel like Im in another country, its really unique. And speaking of workplace, we had a workplace diversity "seminar" the other week and found that we have people from 13 different countries working here! And this is a small workplace!

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by vegaspilgrim

fcorrales80, the developments you mention in your post are great, but most of them are nothing more than great ideas come up by academics at ASU and projects that may or may not ever occur. Your post sounds like it was written by the Chamber of Commerce. A little too pie in the sky. ASU Global Institute of Sustainability? The thing is a practically a brand new concept that hasn't produced *anything* yet. Let's see the results first before singing about how "innovative" it is. Michael Crow has renamed a half a dozen schools at ASU with names that sound cool; just because it's one of the only schools with the word "sustainability" in the title doesn't mean much by itself. Rooftop gardens on a few elitist highrise developments are going to "eliminate" the extreme urban heat island effect for the entire metropolitan area of Phoenix? Nothing short of a nuclear bomb levelling the whole place is going to "eliminate" that problem. Massive desalinization projects sound cool, but they are extremely expensive. Not to mention the little problem that Phoenix is hundreds of miles away from the nearest ocean. It's Israeli, not "Isreali" by the way. In the vast majority of the land area of the 4.1 million population Phoenix metro area, I don't see anything innovative going on. No offense, but I think you fail to realize just how gargantuan in size the built up Phoenix metropolitan area is. Masterplanned communities with golf courses and new pools being constructed in everybody's backyards are still being constructed like no tomorrow. Infill and highrise development represents a miniscule sliver of the development going on in Phoenix. So while there are a lot of great ideas out there as to how Phoenix could be made a better place in the future, it's time to land back down on planet earth for the time being.

I have read your posts before and disagree with your assertions whole-heartedly. And excuse me for misspelling a word wrong here and there. May be I stated that people were cordial on this forum and debated but not attacked. HMMM, revising my opinion, oh well. But the reason Crow has realigned the schools into fields is because if makes sense. The research has been done, and new building techniques are happening today, and not just trees on a building, but actual material that dispurses heat. So while, no ASU and other institutes haven't transformed the city overnight, it will happen. And the development downtown IS miniscule compared to Phoenix as a whole, but this is true of EVERY city. Every metro area has outpaced downtown development.