When will Phoenix surpass Houston as the 4th largest city? (Tucson: hotel, neighborhood)

[TheseGoTo11]

Originally Posted by jd433

Houston ranks # 1

National -- Foreign Direct Investment Destination
Source: The Perryman Group (as reported in the Houston Business Journal ) – April 18, 2008

Houston ranks # 1

Nominal Job Growth (March ‘07 to March ‘08) Just this year??
Source: Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: February 2008, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics press release – April 2, 2008

Houston ranks # 1

National -- Wind Power Capacity
Source: American Wind Power Association (as reported in the Houston Business Journal ) – April 2, 2008

Houston ranks # 1

Fastest Job Growth (March ‘07 to March ‘08)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – April 2008

Houston ranks # 1

National -- Biotechnology Financial Incentives Don't forget the Texas Medical Center is the largest Medical center in the World!!
Source: FierceBiotech – February 19, 2008

Houston ranks #1

New Housing Starts 2007

This is a City that is on it's way down????????

It will be if the oil bubble bursts.

All the above numbers reflect current investment in oil, same thing is happening in Canada with Calgary. Plus, all the wind farms are in West Texas, not Houston.

Every city with a teaching hospital is getting some biotech investment right now. But the leading metros for biotech R&D and VC are Boston, SF, SD, and Seattle.

Houston is tied to oil like Detroit is to cars. Better weather and much more immigration than Detroit, plus more int'l trade and air service than other sunbelt metros. But it doesn't attract domestic migration the way Atlanta, Phoenix, Charlotte, and Las Vegas do.

[_Charles_]

Others here have already hit the nail on the head. Phoenix metro population 4 million and only 5 thousand have good jobs.
Houston has a huge core of "good" jobs that Phoenix can only dream about.
Real estate speculation and transfer payments to well heeled retirees that made their living elsewhere is what has been driving Phoenix's economy and it is not a blue print for future growth.

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by Steve-o

As much as I enjoy integration, I also love it when I can to to Chicago and hit up Germantown or Chinatown or Little Village (Hispanic) or Andersonville (Swedish), etc, etc, etc, and actually feel like Im in another country, its really unique. And speaking of workplace, we had a workplace diversity "seminar" the other week and found that we have people from 13 different countries working here! And this is a small workplace!

Thats nice for you, I work with people from many more countries and go to school with people who represent over 100 nations. So while Phoenix does not have the historical background to sustain segregated communites, there are many foreigners in Phoenix who love the city and who are bringing their culture here and integrating it into the area. Phoenix will be less of a melting pot where people lose their traditions and will be more of a salad bowl, where poeple of varied backgrounds will live and work together and keep their traditions. This is why hispanics in Phoenix are ridiculed. They are told they keep too much tradition and assimilate too slowly. Assmilation is a nasty word in my vocabulary and I believe, as well as most, that people can live together being different and making this country a better place. I think Phoenix has a headstart given that there are not man-made divisions between populations here. So Chicago and all the old cities can keep their segregated populations, but I for one look forward to the future.

[fcorrales80]

Originally Posted by _Charles_

Others here have already hit the nail on the head. Phoenix metro population 4 million and only 5 thousand have good jobs.
Houston has a huge core of "good" jobs that Phoenix can only dream about.
Real estate speculation and transfer payments to well heeled retirees that made their living elsewhere is what has been driving Phoenix's economy and it is not a blue print for future growth.

You have no idea what you are talking about and I outlined why in multiple post already. Phoenix has hundreds of thousands of good jobs. The median income in Houston Statistical Data region is $34,431...Phoenix Statistical Data region is $41,207...this is data from the U.S. Government and state governments. Next....

[Steve-o]

Originally Posted by fcorrales80

Thats nice for you, I work with people from many more countries and go to school with people who represent over 100 nations. So while Phoenix does not have the historical background to sustain segregated communites, there are many foreigners in Phoenix who love the city and who are bringing their culture hear and integrating it into the area. Phoenix will be less of a melting pot where people lose their traditions and will be more of a salad bowl, where poeple of varied backgrounds will live and work together and keep their traditions. This is why hispanics in Phoenix are ridiculed. They are told they keep too much tradition and assimilate too slowly. Assmilation is a nasty word in my vocabulary and I believe, as well as most, that people can live together being different and making this country a better place. I think Phoenix has a headstart given that there are not man-made divisions between populations here. So Chicago and all the old cities can keep their segregated populations, but I for one look forward to the future.

Thats fine and dandy for you. Enjoy sharing a neighborhood full of pseudo-adobe junk homes with "people from 100 nations" and not be able to tell it at all. Must be real "fun" to never experience walking into a neighborhood and feeling like youre in another country. For someone like yourself who seems to enjoy different cultures, I can tell you that PHX is not a place where you can fully experience that. Youre missing out big time.

[Spade]

Originally Posted by TheseGoTo11

It will be if the oil bubble bursts.

All the above numbers reflect current investment in oil, same thing is happening in Canada with Calgary. Plus, all the wind farms are in West Texas, not Houston.

Every city with a teaching hospital is getting some biotech investment right now. But the leading metros for biotech R&D and VC are Boston, SF, SD, and Seattle.

Houston is tied to oil like Detroit is to cars. Better weather and much more immigration than Detroit, plus more int'l trade and air service than other sunbelt metros. But it doesn't attract domestic migration the way Atlanta, Phoenix, Charlotte, and Las Vegas do.

The majority of Houston's economy is still Oil but not as much as you believe.
Less than 50% of Houston's economy is tied with oil nowadays and that number is rapidly falling. Houston is home to the largest medical center in the world and it's still growing fast.

Houston's IT field is growing fast. Houston has one of the largest seaports in the nation. It is the 10th largest in the world and ranks 1st in international commerce.

Houston has a growing biomedical field and is home to one of the largest aeronautical industries in the United States. It attacts just as much domestic migration as the other cities you named. BTW, there are plans to build farms in Southeast Texas.

[TheseGoTo11]

Re : educational attainment - Maricopa's 25.9% adults with at least a Bachelor's, Harris County, Texas, which is almost exactly the same size is 26.9%.

They're equal in terms of education.

As someone who lives in neither, and has no investment in either place, I'd bet on Phoenix if I had to pick because it has a reliable supply of legal "immigrants" from SoCal, and is a major hub in semiconductor manufacturing.

Phoenix also has just Las Vegas to compete with for domestic migration. Houston is getting crushed by Dallas, Atlanta, Austin, Florida, and Charlotte for Northeastern and Midwestern migrants.

[fcorrales80]

I disagree, and thank you. I live in downtown, in a historic neighborhood so your stereotype of Phoenix is over wrought. While the outlying suburbs and new neighborhoods are similar, there are many new communities in central Phoenix, and even outlying areas that are very distinct...as home builders move away from the traditional stucco and red-tile roof houses that defined the boom in the first half of this decade. Keep your elitism and mis-information in Chicago please.

[tolovefromANFIELD]

Assmilation is a nasty word in my vocabulary

as it should be

[jd433]

Originally Posted by TheseGoTo11

Phoenix MSA's domestic net migration has blown Houston's away. 300,000 from 2000 to 2005 to just 60,000. Houston, unlike Atlanta and Phoenix, relies heavily on immigration, and actually had negative domestic migration during the oil busts in the 80s and 90s.

Phoenix has been #1 in domestic net migration since the early 90s, but it's a little light on immigration considering its growth and proximity to the border, trailing Boston, Chicago, DC, NY, and other int'l gateway metros.

Houston's primary source of new residents is Mexico, Phoenix's primary source of new residents is Los Angeles.

Both cities have laughable downtowns, although I expect Phoenix to improve over the next 10 years with light rail and Copper Square development, much like San Diego's Gaslamp has since the 90s. Houston light rail is a nice 1st step, but really only part of town that has any appeal is the Rice University/Museum District neighborhood.

Phoenix is in much better shape with growing technology industries, while Houston has to compete against Austin and Dallas within its own state. But those areas attracted domestic residents during the tech bust, which Houston couldn't do during the oil bust.

Sure I will give you this. If you want to count all of the retirees moving there thats fine. But you seem to have overlooked the fact that Houston has a way, way larger Foreign migration than Phoenix. this means that the people are probably educated foreigners that will contribute greatly.

Also Houston has a higher birth rate and is actually sustaining it's own growth without needing people to move here at all. i don't think that the Phoenix area can say this.

Phoenix's population growth is relying on People moving there from other places in the U.S. (mostly retirees and Californians sick of the cost of living i'm sure) and illegal immigration.