When will Phoenix surpass Houston as the 4th largest city? (Tucson: health insurance, headhunter)

[TXTwizter]

I dont really think it matters if Phoenix surpasses Houston (I doubt it will) or not, because most economic indicators go by the Metropolitan areas. And Houston is number 6, wheras Phoenix is number 13.

List of United States metropolitan areas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[silverbear]

Originally Posted by JVTX72

I dont really think it matters if Phoenix surpasses Houston (I doubt it will) or not, because most economic indicators go by the Metropolitan areas. And Houston is number 6, wheras Phoenix is number 13.

List of United States metropolitan areas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Good point. Based on the table of metro area populations (link above), it appears that the Phoenix Metro Area may surpass the Bay Area (at least the SF / Oakland part of it; San Jose is counted separately) within a year or two and the Boston and Detroit metro areas a few years later (all assuming continuation of current growth rates). Likewise, it looks like the Houston Metro Area may soon surpass the Philadelphia Metro Area, more than two decades after Houston proper overtook Philadelphia proper to become the nation's fourth largest city. The chart shows how city populations and metro area populations can align differently, but ultimately metro area population is the more important factor.

[londonbarcelona]

Originally Posted by joninaz

Just to clarify, 5000 people work just for Boeing in AZ. Some other biggies:

Banner Health: 20,000
Honeywell: 12,500
Wells Fargo: 12,000
Intel: 11,000
Raytheon: 10,600
JP Morgan/Chase: 9,500

wow a whopping 75K people out of MILLIONS make a decent living, gosh, thanks for letting me know. Remember, Wal-Mart is STILL the biggest employer here.......

[paulrigsby]

Originally Posted by sheena

What the heck does becoming a blue state have to do with being such a great thing? It seems people are running away from their blue states for various reasons including high taxes. This is for a different forum though.

I don't the answer either but I do know that liberal cities near the west coast like Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, Boise and Los Angelas have grown considerably. Liberal cities like Chicago, Milwauke and Minneapolis have lost people due to weather and not politics

[paulrigsby]

Originally Posted by JVTX72

I dont really think it matters if Phoenix surpasses Houston (I doubt it will) or not, because most economic indicators go by the Metropolitan areas. And Houston is number 6, wheras Phoenix is number 13.

List of United States metropolitan areas - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I don't think it matters either. Population really means nothing. The quality of city is far more important. San Fransisco is easily one of the nicest cities in the country and has far more to offer than either Houston or Phoenix.

Nonetheless, you forget that many of Phoenix' suburbs like Chandler, Gilbert, Glendale, Goodyear and Suprise are growing at a much faster rate than Phoenix itself. People outside of Arizona are not aware of this and assume Phoenix is the only city growing here but even cities like Chander had only 10,000 people in 1990 and will have over 200,000 by 2010. This is why it's likely Phoenix' metro will ultimately outgrow Houston's

[paulrigsby]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

So dry is good, huh? Are you aware that Phoenix is experiencing its driest year in history EVER so far? If we receive no more rain through the end of the year, it will be officially the driest year on record. Are you aware of the drought we're in right now, which has worsened gradually since it began 11 years ago? How about the dwindling water supplies in many areas of Arizona, and the urban heat island effect due to the sprawl which is making the Phoenix metro area hotter? Tell me how dry is "perfect" weather.

Are you aware that many communities had private lakes built including Ocotillo and Arrowhead and were only recently denied. Actually, the sprawl adds to the communities water supply, it doesn't remove it due to waste being recycle and treated among other ecological principles.

That's another thing I'm tired of hearing: how we're so close to California and Las Vegas for attractions. Hey, since we're the fifth largest city in the nation (and possibly the future fourth largest city), why doesn't Phoenix get some attractions of its own?! The NIMBYs need to quit opposing things like stadiums, amusement parks, and other big city amenities that will only improve the quality of life.

Since 1988, we have brought 3 professional sports teams to the valley and built 3 stadiums. We are also building the worlds' largest water park in Mesa entitled Waveyard. We have also expanded our downtown and have added several upscale restaurants and attractions and the cross streets of Camelback and Scottsdale road including the development of the W hotel. We have as many if not more attractions than many big cities but we are spoiled since we compare ourselves to Las Vegas, LA and San Diego which are some of the top tourist destinations in the world. It's going to be difficult to compete with that.

How would Arizona be any better by becoming a blue liberal state? That usually results in more socialism in the form of increased gun control, increased welfare dependent people, increased public education that doesn't work, more crime, more labor unions, and more taxation for the average citizen which we don't need & can't afford. Also, liberal minded people tend to favor amnesty for illegal aliens ... and God knows that this state is already overwhelmed with illegals as it is!

So I suppose it's just a big coincidence that the best and most prestigious academic institutions are liberal such as HARVARD. And I also suppose it's not a secret that the cities with the highest demand and cost of living happen to be in liberal cities like New York, Boston, San Francisco, Chicago and Seattle. Those cities and their suburbs routinely rank in the top 10 in quality of living indexes in magazines like Forbes. Those liberal policies didn't seem to hurt those cites. A big reason people love California is because of it's environment. The fact is liberal areas attract highly educated people. If Phoenix becomes similar, more of those highly educated individuals will move here. That will attract companies and thus jobs. A PhD from Cal Tech or MIT who received 2 million in venture capital is unlikely to move to a conservative area to start his or her company let's get real.

[joninaz]

Originally Posted by londonbarcelona

wow a whopping 75K people out of MILLIONS make a decent living, gosh, thanks for letting me know. Remember, Wal-Mart is STILL the biggest employer here.......

wow, you seem to have a reading comprehension challenge. gosh, as noted, I listed SOME of the major employers here, not all, not most, not unique. Nor did I ever state the number of decent wage jobs. You seem to selectively twist things to match your point of view. And remember, Wal-Mart is STILL the biggest employer in Houston as well. And PA. And the entire USA (apart from govt. jobs). Most astute members of the business community know this... retail and food service are simply among the biggest employers across all sates. gosh.

[paulrigsby]

Originally Posted by londonbarcelona

Yes, you are mistaken (sorry). Please read through this study that was printed in the AZ Republic. There are any links to other parts of the story which you really need to read to get a grasp on the situation. I wouldn't say it's "dire" but Phoenix has definately seen it's best days and is already beginning the slow decent into a "has been" city.

It's not a bad place, but because of the lack of quality jobs and our poor education system (along with poorly rated universities) it's so far behind the right ball with all this growth, no one in their right mind will transfer their fortune 500 company here or even a fast growing company. We just don't have the educated population to support that. I'm sorry, but the facts speak for themselves. Arizona quickly falls behind the eight ball.

The AZ Republic is not the sole authority on the Maricopa economy. It's a newspaper that is designed to sell stories. Obviously, a controversial subject such as this is going to attract readers which is why it was written and entitled the way it was.

It is true the Phoenix economy has to diversify if it is to sustain this type of growth. That's no secret. However, it's another thing entirely to suggest that we will enter some type of crisis. It's even more foolish to suggest that the city is growing for the sake of growth. People will not move here if they can't sustain themselves which leads me to my next point.

The growth is not supported in a vacuum like most of the respondents suggest. People are not moving here due to the weather and live on peanuts. It's pure idiocy to suggest people move here for the heck of it and then somehow don't find employment. That's the naive assertion that has been suggested by several respondents here and it's purely comical. Phoenix is an consumer driven market. Yes, we don't have vast numbers of Fortune 500 headquarters relocating here. However, who do you think works at those multiple Best Buys, Cosco's etc. that's on every strip mall block in the valley? Trust me, robots don't work there.

In addition, you don't need Fortune 500 headquarters to move here. Many Fortune 500 and 1000 companies create divisions here. Google recently did this 2 years ago. A lot of satellite branches are moving here and guess what.....they employ people.

[southwest1230]

Originally Posted by SpeedyAZ

Phoenix won't be supassing Houston anytime soon as the 4th largest city. Mainly Houston's economy is larger and more diverse than Phoenix plus there's already a 500K person gap between the two cities. Both are growing fast but I have a feeling that within the next few years, Phoenix's growth will slow.

I just don't see it happening within 20 years especially since the majority of Phoenix's growth is in the suburbs. IF (big IF) Phoenix improves their downtown and makes it pedestrian friendly, I could see a large number of suburban residents migrating downtown.

I think the fact that Phoenix is in the middle of the Mohave desert will cause it to, if anything, shrink in the future. At least Houston can find a way to desalinate the gulf, if they can dredge the oil out of it first! LOL!

[southwest1230]

Originally Posted by paulrigsby

I don't the answer either but I do know that liberal cities near the west coast like Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, Boise and Los Angelas have grown considerably. Liberal cities like Chicago, Milwauke and Minneapolis have lost people due to weather and not politics

Chicago loses more people from crime than weather, though the winter does chase people out as well. Its that combo that does it.