When will Phoenix surpass Houston as the 4th largest city? (Scottsdale: neighborhoods, construction)

[Chicago60614]

Originally Posted by southwest1230

Chicago loses more people from crime than weather, though the winter does chase people out as well. Its that combo that does it.

Actually Chicago grew by 112,000 people in the late 90's, and has continued that this decade.

The census says it's losing people in the 2000's, but they were off by 250,000 in the 90's estimates and it looks like they're doing it again.....

[Greatday]

Originally Posted by paulrigsby

Do you think Phoenix will supass Houston in the next 12 to 20 years?

Next 5 to 7 years IMO

[nickluva]

Originally Posted by paulrigsby

It's not a question of "if" but when will Phoenix surpass Houston in population? It's no secret that people want to move near the West Coast. The weather here is perfect aside from the hot summers but at least they are dry and not sticky like Houston and Florida. We are within driving distance of LA, San Diego and Las Vegas for attractions whereas Houston natives can only really drive to New Orleans. Houston is flat whereas Phoenix offers hiking on it's mountains and snow skiing is just hours away. We don't have hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes or fires to worry about. The state has increasingly become more liberal and democratic and will likely become a Blue state in the next Presidential election. Houston is growing as well but it's still Texas and it has a very conservative and southern element that many don't like.

Do you think Phoenix will supass Houston in the next 12 to 20 years?

The real question is when is Houston going to surpass Chicago for 3rd largest city.

[nickluva]

Originally Posted by Greatday

Next 5 to 7 years IMO

Based off what?! Houston is growing fast too and it actually has a real economy. Look how many Fortune 500 companies Houston has versus Phoenix

[Spade]

Originally Posted by Greatday

Next 5 to 7 years IMO

I do not think Phoenix will growing by 500k in 5 years nor do I think metro Phoenix will grow by 2 million in that same time span.

[Greatday]

Originally Posted by Spade

I do not think Phoenix will growing by 500k in 5 years nor do I think metro Phoenix will grow by 2 million in that same time span.

I believe a recent study at ASU disagrees -

But, only time will tell

[Howest2008]

No I don't think that Phoenix will overtake Houston in core city Population or Metropolitan Population in the next 10 , 20 , 30 Or 40 Years But Houston will overtake Chicago Ill. but you know the proof of the pudding is in the eating of the pudding. And guess what Las Vegas And San Diego are going to Overtake Phoenix in at the very latest 25 to 50 years in the case of San Diego in 10 to 12 years if they lucky.

[Howest2008]

I just ran a census and economic check on the two cities Houston 2006 census city population 2.14 Millions Metropolitan 5.5 Millions Phoenix city population 1,530.000 Metropolitan 4,040.000 ....Number Of Fortune 500 Corporation Headquartered Within The (City Limits) Houston (23) Phoenix (2) And You Think That Phoenix Is Going To Really Catch Up With Houston ....

[joninaz]

Originally Posted by Howest2008

No I don't think that Phoenix will overtake Houston in core city Population or Metropolitan Population in the next 10 , 20 , 30 Or 40 Years But Houston will overtake Chicago Ill. but you know the proof of the pudding is in the eating of the pudding. And guess what Las Vegas And San Diego are going to Overtake Phoenix in at the very latest 25 to 50 years in the case of San Diego in 10 to 12 years if they lucky.

Slight little problem in your theory... San Diego is pretty much built out. The open spaces are, for the most part, open "protected" spaces. Vegas has similar constraints - surrounded by a lot of Federal land.

I'd prefer Phoneix not be able to grow much more, but the reality is that there's still a huge amount of room to expand.

Also, the number of Fortune 500 companies is misleading. There are more than 2. Phoenix, like many cities, is generally considered a metro area with several other cities being part of the market. The numbers grow when you add in Scottsdale, Tempe, etc. Even then, it's still not the best measure. L.A. has relatively few HQs but that hasn't stopped them from being the second largest city. Houston has a lot of big energy companies with most revenues produced elsewhere. Meanwhile, a lot of Fortune 500 companies have major operations here... Intel, Google, Boeing, Honeywell, General Dynamics, Wells Fargo, BofA, Chase, etc.

I'm not bagging on Houston... it should continue to grow well as will PHX.
Today's economy is less demanding of workers living close to employers. In fact many are spreading their operations across multiple states. The answer to the original question will ultimately be decided on land availability.

[bungalowbob]

Houston is Booming!!!!!!