When will Phoenix surpass Houston as the 4th largest city? (Mesa: amusement park, crime)

[joninaz]

Fortune 500 HQ location isn't the best indicator. We're just shy of 7, Los angeles has five, as does Omaha and San Fran. And HQs rarely, if ever move. Boeing was the last I can recall, in 2001. They got $60 million + in kickbacks to move 400 jobs to Chicago out of 190,000 employees, much of whom remain in Seattle, SoCal and other areas.

What is important is having more of a Fortune 500/1000 presence. Lots of folks here work for major financial companies based elsewhere, or tech employers such as Motorola, Honeywell, Intel and yes, Boeing, with 5,000 good wage jobs in the valley.

That's not to say we can't do better. I'd like to see the state be more aggressive in coursting companies. My New York based employer just built a big operations center in New Mexico because it's realtively safer from hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes and other maladies that can impact other regions.

[Tex?Il?]

Originally Posted by paulrigsby

It's not a question of "if" but when will Phoenix surpass Houston in population? It's no secret that people want to move near the West Coast. The weather here is perfect aside from the hot summers but at least they are dry and not sticky like Houston and Florida. We are within driving distance of LA, San Diego and Las Vegas for attractions whereas Houston natives can only really drive to New Orleans. Houston is flat whereas Phoenix offers hiking on it's mountains and snow skiing is just hours away. We don't have hurricanes, tornados, earthquakes or fires to worry about. The state has increasingly become more liberal and democratic and will likely become a Blue state in the next Presidential election. Houston is growing as well but it's still Texas and it has a very conservative and southern element that many don't like.

Do you think Phoenix will supass Houston in the next 12 to 20 years?

I think you misunderstand the two places. I have family in Phoenix been there several times, been only to the Houston airport.

First off: Houston is a well-kept secret in that it is MUCH more funky and liberal than anyone would guess. Its one of the most diverse and cosmopolitan cities in the country, often referred to as the Chicago of the south. I think it does have the extremes, though of liberal and conservative that Phoenix doesn't have. Phoenix seems to me to be the repository for midwesterners who don't like winter, but So Cal is too expensive.

2nd. WATER! WATER! WATER! Houston is surrounded by it (has access to lakes and rivers, not just the gulf). Phoenix is parched and the future of desert cities are uncertain at least as we know them. Thats the major difference.

As far as earthquakes, Phoenix probably isn't in that much danger, but more certainly than Houston. Its tectonic activity that created those mountains.

Yeah, I don't think Phoenix will surpass.

[londonbarcelona]

Originally Posted by joninaz

Fortune 500 HQ location isn't the best indicator. We're just shy of 7, Los angeles has five, as does Omaha and San Fran. And HQs rarely, if ever move. Boeing was the last I can recall, in 2001. They got $60 million + in kickbacks to move 400 jobs to Chicago out of 190,000 employees, much of whom remain in Seattle, SoCal and other areas.

What is important is having more of a Fortune 500/1000 presence. Lots of folks here work for major financial companies based elsewhere, or tech employers such as Motorola, Honeywell, Intel and yes, Boeing, with 5,000 good wage jobs in the valley.

That's not to say we can't do better. I'd like to see the state be more aggressive in coursting companies. My New York based employer just built a big operations center in New Mexico because it's realtively safer from hurricanes, blizzards, earthquakes and other maladies that can impact other regions.

Great, there's 5 million people in the valley and 5000 of them have good jobs. Thanks for making my point.
Morrison Institute for Public Policy This is a great place to get an unbiased feel for the future.

[steve22]

Interesting story regarding the future of Phoenix in the AZ Republic, concerning the need to diversify in growth and tech-related industries in the future, and to become a player in the global economy if it is to have any hope of maintaining viability as a city.

This article basically underscores what I and many others have been saying all along is Phoenix's major flaw, its primary reliance on growth to anchor the economy. This article does a good job of addressing the problems Phoenix will face ahead. Here's the link:

Ariz.'s choice: Lead or follow

[vegaspilgrim]

I just read the article. If even the AZ Republic, who's normally the cheerleader of growth, had the guts to print that, then wow! Phoenix is a severely underpowered city. It has all the problems of a city of 4 million people, but the jobs, amenities, and downtown only compare to a city of 1 million. Here's what growth means in Phoenix: Instead of having 500 Circle K's, 15 Walmarts, 10 Best Buys, and 2 Hummer dealers, in ten years we'll have 700 Circle K's, 20 Walmarts, 15 Best Buys, and 3 hummer dealers.

[steve22]

Originally Posted by steve22

Interesting story regarding the future of Phoenix in the AZ Republic, concerning the need to diversify in growth and tech-related industries in the future, and to become a player in the global economy if it is to have any hope of maintaining viability as a city.

This article basically underscores what I and many others have been saying all along is Phoenix's major flaw, its primary reliance on growth to anchor the economy. This article does a good job of addressing the problems Phoenix will face ahead. Here's the link:

Ariz.'s choice: Lead or follow

Whoops, should have read the rest of the thread. Apparently this has already been discussed.

[Magnum Mike]

I tend to agree with those who believe Phoenix will never surpass Houston as the 4th largest city.

I don't see that happening unless there is a mass exodus of companies and population out of Los Angeles to here.

[artvandelay]

Originally Posted by steve22

Interesting story regarding the future of Phoenix in the AZ Republic, concerning the need to diversify in growth and tech-related industries in the future, and to become a player in the global economy if it is to have any hope of maintaining viability as a city.

This article basically underscores what I and many others have been saying all along is Phoenix's major flaw, its primary reliance on growth to anchor the economy. This article does a good job of addressing the problems Phoenix will face ahead. Here's the link:

Ariz.'s choice: Lead or follow

My family and I were interviewed for that article , I suppose for parts 2 or 3 that are to appear later this week. Growth in a city is one things, but smart growth is another.

It's hard for me to define the "lack of culture" that many debate, but this AZ Republic piece seems to get a handle on it. Maricopa County is the poorest of the 9 biggest US counties, and its reliance on menial job growth, building, and not innovation, intellect, etc is what makes this place feel 3rd world at times.

[joninaz]

Originally Posted by londonbarcelona

Great, there's 5 million people in the valley and 5000 of them have good jobs. Thanks for making my point.
Morrison Institute for Public Policy This is a great place to get an unbiased feel for the future.

Just to clarify, 5000 people work just for Boeing in AZ. Some other biggies:

Banner Health: 20,000
Honeywell: 12,500
Wells Fargo: 12,000
Intel: 11,000
Raytheon: 10,600
JP Morgan/Chase: 9,500

[mthittson]

Houston City Limits will pass Chicago City Limits in population long before Phoenix passes Houston. Houston is a thriving exciting city and still continues to grow by leaps and bounds. I don't see Phoenix passing Houston in my lifetime (I'm 53). I would look for Phoenix to pass Chicago some time in the next 20-30 years and move to number 4.