Phoenix Real estate (Scottsdale: mortgage, incomes, rental)

[londonbarcelona]

Sorry, I somehow posted this within another thread when I meant to start a new one.

Please think twice before moving here or buying a house in Phoenix. You might want to wait a few years or so.

The above link will explain. It's from CNN money.

[LadmoFan]

Thanks so much for the "heads up". Last year when I got the Arizona bug I had a real estate agent trying to put a lot of pressure on us to purchase a house "now". I told the agent that sales were sure to drop as the market was extremely inflated. Not more than a month later the prices started to go down. I bet they will continue to go down. How much I don't know. Anyone have any guesses?

As for our house, it has almost tripled in value since we bought it almost 25 years ago. We were lucky we bought before the boom, rode out the bust, and our now going through a moderate boom cycle again. Hopefully, we will able to sell before the boom busts.

Again, thanks,

LadmoFan

[londonbarcelona]

Originally Posted by LadmoFan

Thanks so much for the "heads up". Last year when I got the Arizona bug I had a real estate agent trying to put a lot of pressure on us to purchase a house "now". I told the agent that sales were sure to drop as the market was extremely inflated. Not more than a month later the prices started to go down. I bet they will continue to go down. How much I don't know. Anyone have any guesses?

As for our house, it has almost tripled in value since we bought it almost 25 years ago. We were lucky we bought before the boom, rode out the bust, and our now going through a moderate boom cycle again. Hopefully, we will able to sell before the boom busts.

Again, thanks,

LadmoFan

Many in the business say the prices should drop at least 50%. We'll see. I doubt they will drop that much in Scottsdale or PV, but you never know.

[Nice Nice Baby!]

How can a house worth $250k today be worth $125k or less in a year or so? What will have to happen to support that theory? That would be a year 2001 price when the market was undervalued when wages have increased 5% annually since then and are accelerating at a faster pace, currently. The job market is tight. I can go out and get another job immediately for median pay within a week. Inflation is accelerating more now than in the past 10-15 years. Look at what rents are going for and the monthly mortgage payment on that same rental will be a little higher in comparison. $1000 rent is about $1275 PMIT/monthly. There's your benchmark.

[LadmoFan]

It happens because of speculation which artificially drives prices up. When the market settles, and the speculation ends because no one can afford to purchase the product, prices drop.

The market can only sell if there are available buyers. In California the median price for a home it out of reach of most homeowners. Prices will drop because of this.

I don't expect a 50% drop in house prices in the Phoenix area but I would not be surprised it it wasn't around a 30% in reduction.

What do you guys think?

LadmoFan

[azsundevil]

More oversensationalized media. If you click on the corresponding link it says Phoenix will actually have a 3.3% increase. How does that make sense? The other market that they are bashing on is the Bay Area. I also own there and homes are still going over asking price. How do you explain that? All the talk about home prices having to come down in order to be in line with incomes obviously does not apply there. I don't see it happening here. My neighborhood in Phoenix is still performing well. The only places people are going to get a deal is on a new build. All these real estate figures and news stories overgeneralize a particular metro area. When it comes down to it, you need to look at neighborhood by neighborhood.

[Nice Nice Baby!]

I tend to think that if you have a bright outlook on the market, you're probably contributing to it. If you have a dark outlook on the market, you are probably not contributing, or you've only been in it for a short period of time. It was over bought, and now it's over sold. Things will balance before long. Misery loves company when it comes to bad news.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by londonbarcelona

Sorry, I somehow posted this within another thread when I meant to start a new one.

Please think twice before moving here or buying a house in Phoenix. You might want to wait a few years or so.

The above link will explain. It's from CNN money.

That article was from May 5, 2006. It's one and one half years old.

Bill

[LadmoFan]

Yup. And this was about the time that I told the high pressure realtor that I expected prices to drop.

I keep hoping to move to Phoenix, hubby is getting closer to retirement, so perhaps it will happen EVENTUALLY. LOL!

I would like to move there so my kids have a chance to get a good education and find employment. We would like to retire some day.

LadmoFan

[artyst]

houses in my neighborhood have gone up slightly from last year. and one has just sold. no decline in my hood. some neighborhoods have declinded, but not all so good luck with that theory.