Yes, my annual "when will the Monsoon hit" thread. (Phoenix: safety, photos)

[PoppySead]

Originally Posted by sunluv

It's always hot in June; the highest temps are mid June until the monsoon starts. The temps now are about average and should rise the next few weeks and aren't indicative of an early monsoon.

It usually starts 1st-2nd week of July.

Technically it's monsoon but it's so mild here that the humidity and late afternoon/evening pattern of storms aren't much different than standard summer weather in much of the country.

I am surprised by the triple digit excessive heat warning weather already and I've lived here 40 years and some. End of June early July is when I'm use to seeing the hottest days. IMO. Not the first weeks of June. I usually expect 104, 105, not 110, 111.

I guess we've been getting a big warmer, earlier though. They changed our averages recently. The old folk saying is "hot June, early monsoon, cool June, won't come to soon." lol Yes, I'm old. That's how us old folks forecast the weather.

Funny, I realize we make a hoopla out of monsoon but when you through a pebble into still water it's nice to see a ripple or two, even a small one. Something to look forward to. IMO, of course.

[tiger08]

Although we have some monsoon weather in Vegas, I've heard the Phoenix monsoon is worse. I may have to take a trip down there in July or August and see what it's really like!

[LagunaMom]

It doesn't have anything to do with the high temps, Poppy. It's all about the flow of moisture that comes in from Mexico.
I was going to say July 3rd, but I think I'm going to go with July 7th.

[Chelito23]

I am afraid it will come late this year, my guess is the end of July. I much prefer the humidity because it keeps a lid on the intense daytime temperatures and it doesn't burn or harm my plants and trees as much. As a matter of fact, they like the humidity....but the wicked dry heat of June and July are brutal.

[AZDesertBrat]

Originally Posted by PoppySead

I agree, it's the only real shift in weather we get. I enjoy it. I'm a long timer here and I guess I'm stuck with the old mind set of the monsoon doesn't really start until the first 3 days of humidity rises. I realize we have a new "monsoon season" now but I still go by the dew point markers.

I figure it the same way you do...by dew point markers. I figure the first week in July but can never predict an exact date. Being a native, who has spent more years in AZ than anywhere else, I've just accepted the vagaries of the weather, year round. I don't bother griping about it, it just is what it is. I am happy that I don't live in the Valley though. We may not be a whole lot cooler up here in the Verde Valley but sometimes 10 degrees makes a big difference.

I have always loved the Monsoon season here. I love the smell of the hot desert after the rain, the rainbows and the incredible sunsets. As kids we often didn't even go in the house when the rains started...unless it was really thundering and lightning. We had some really huge Mesquite trees that did a good job of keeping the rain off. They are long gone now.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by LagunaMom

It doesn't have anything to do with the high temps, Poppy. It's all about the flow of moisture that comes in from Mexico.
I was going to say July 3rd, but I think I'm going to go with July 7th.

It certainly does. Old weather guys will tell you that the monsoon will not come unless we get three straight days over 110 (probably 115 these days). The rising heated air creates a thermal low pressure that draws moisture to the north and west around the "four corners high" that acts as the engine to move it all over the mountains, cooling it and leading to t-storms. Early formation and persistence of the four corners high could very well mean an early monsoon. A couple days of it, followed by weakening and drifting like we are now seeing is not indicative though. There are some other things to look for too, like the Bermuda high strength and the seasonal high over Texas drifting to the west.

[PoppySead]

Originally Posted by AZDesertBrat

I figure it the same way you do...by dew point markers. I figure the first week in July but can never predict an exact date. Being a native, who has spent more years in AZ than anywhere else, I've just accepted the vagaries of the weather, year round. I don't bother griping about it, it just is what it is. I am happy that I don't live in the Valley though. We may not be a whole lot cooler up here in the Verde Valley but sometimes 10 degrees makes a big difference.

I have always loved the Monsoon season here. I love the smell of the hot desert after the rain, the rainbows and the incredible sunsets. As kids we often didn't even go in the house when the rains started...unless it was really thundering and lightning. We had some really huge Mesquite trees that did a good job of keeping the rain off. They are long gone now.

It's nice to see a long timer use to that. I remember the weather man getting hyped up because of the dew point so he could officially announce the start of the monsoon.

Verde Valley is wonderful and the elevation makes enough of a difference. I love the smell after a good desert rain as well. Nothing beats it! IMO, of course.

[PoppySead]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

It certainly does. Old weather guys will tell you that the monsoon will not come unless we get three straight days over 110 (probably 115 these days). The rising heated air creates a thermal low pressure that draws moisture to the north and west around the "four corners high" that acts as the engine to move it all over the mountains, cooling it and leading to t-storms. Early formation and persistence of the four corners high could very well mean an early monsoon. A couple days of it, followed by weakening and drifting like we are now seeing is not indicative though. There are some other things to look for too, like the Bermuda high strength and the seasonal high over Texas drifting to the west.

Nice to know there is some truth in that old saying. Thanks Ponderosa! My mom said it so much to us as kids whenever June is hotter than usual I start to think of an early monsoonal storm ahead. Doesn't always pan out though.

I do notice the weather isn't consistently high right now, just a shot or two of what's around the corner. I did see a bit of cloud grouping the other day and then it disappeared.

I like to have fun with predictions but I'm rarely on target.

[AZDesertBrat]

Originally Posted by PoppySead

It's nice to see a long timer use to that. I remember the weather man getting hyped up because of the dew point so he could officially announce the start of the monsoon.

Verde Valley is wonderful and the elevation makes enough of a difference. I love the smell after a good desert rain as well. Nothing beats it! IMO, of course.

Weather people get hyped over anything that doesn't include "sunny, cold/warm/hot". lol Our weather is pretty consistant I think. I always look forward to the Monsoons but, I swear, they are nothing like they "used to be". Either that or I forget, from year to year, just how it was.

[PoppySead]

Originally Posted by AZDesertBrat

Weather people get hyped over anything that doesn't include "sunny, cold/warm/hot". lol Our weather is pretty consistant I think. I always look forward to the Monsoons but, I swear, they are nothing like they "used to be". Either that or I forget, from year to year, just how it was.

Same with me. I tend to remember these great storms and the streets flooding. It's a wonderful memory, I'm not sure if it's correct or not but I like it. And I keep looking forward to it. ha ha