Phoenix Real Estate to Fall 23.5% Over Next 5 Years!! (Scottsdale, Tempe: foreclosure, for sale)

[TerryTurtle27]

25 real estate markets poised to fall - Phoenix (15) - FORTUNE

Even if all areas do not drop prices equally (Probably, outlying areas will fall more than central Phoenix/Tempe/Scottsdale.)....

OUCH!!!!

[londonbarcelona]

Originally Posted by TerryTurtle27

25 real estate markets poised to fall - Phoenix (15) - FORTUNE

Even if all areas do not drop prices equally (Probably, outlying areas will fall more than central Phoenix/Tempe/Scottsdale.)....

OUCH!!!!

I doubt Scottsdale will fall much, it's still the most popular place to live, we have great schools, it's safe, there's tons to do and since it's nearly built out, it will just keep our real estate prices rising.

No offense to anyone here, but seriously, I think that houses throughout the entire United States are heavily inflated. When I think about how hard it's got to be for a family just starting out to buy a house and the average house is 150K, I feel bad for them. I didn't come from an area where housing is expensive (Buffalo) so our first house was 33K just over 20 years ago! Over the years we have been lucky enough to buy and sell several times at a profit, so we were able to upgrade each time.
Yes, we caught the wave here in Scottsdale and sold at a hefty profit, and bought again (this time in an area with a stable market) but really folks, unless you went out and bought houses as an investment or bought a house when in reality you couldn't afford it to begin with, the market going back to normal should be seen as a good thing! *smile*
Lord knows Phoenix needs affordable housing that isn't two hours away!

[LadmoFan]

Try this link too:

Housing Woes - Fortune Magazine

And yes we could use affordable housing in the Phoenix area as we are having to stretch right now to even think about moving there. Our house is expected to rise in value, as our current market has been depressed for several years, so it is time for our area to boom. We have always been the last to recover and the last to fail. A recovery period awaits, which means we should be able to afford a modest place in the Phoenix area.

LadmoFan

[MotleyCrew]

It is sorta like predicting the stock market.

[jenkaye]

Our house is for sale and the prices are dropping every week!!!

[londonbarcelona]

Originally Posted by jenkaye

Our house is for sale and the prices are dropping every week!!!

That SUCKS.......

[UUReferralNetwork]

Really folks, this market is just correcting itself. After two years of 35-50% appreciation, the only place the market could go was down. The people that are really hurting are those that paid higher prices in late 05, OR pulled huge somes of money from their properties. I am still working with plenty of sellers that bought their homes for reasonable amounts and are able to sell for a nice profit! Just check out the overall profit margin yourself. Take the amount you bought the home for and run a 8-10% appreciation schedule for it over the years you have owned it. Unless you bought in late 05 or early 06, MOST homes are still well over the old standard in Phoenix of an 8-10% appreciation rule.

[Captain Bill]

One can look at the 2005 - 2006 increase in value as a paper profit - the same as a stock. The price ran up very fast, and the lucky ones sold during the peak. The unlucky ones bought at the peak.

Those who bought at the peak currently have a paper loss. If they don't have to sell, then in time the paper loss will disappear and they will have a profit. If they must sell, they will have a real loss. It's just the opposite of the paper profit.

Many people bought in 2004. In 2005 and 2006, they looked at their paper profit and thought that was the real value of the home. It was only the value as of that moment and one would have had to sell at that moment to realize a real profit.

Then the market dropped back close to the late 2004 value and the paper profit disappeared. Now the homes are back close to their real value in accordance with a trend line. (Some may legitimately argue as to where the trend line should be started, and that there are several trend lines - similar to using trend lines in stocks.)

The real value is what a home can be sold for today. Not what it would have sold for in 2006 (the paper value) or what it may sell for 6 months from now (a percieved value).

On the flip side of the coin, people today who are waiting for a further drop in the market may be luck out, but they may also see an opportunity to buy at a bargain price disappear. At this point it is a guessing game. The game of whether to side with the bulls or the bears.

I believe that those who are hoping for housing to return to a Price Rent equalization will be disappointed. Many sellers who have their homes priced within 5% of the current market value today are beginning to decide to hold tight and not lower them any further. As those sellers decide to remove their homes from the market, which reduces the inventory, and as builders cut back on building, the correction will gradually hit bottom.

This is my personal opinion based on my knowledge of what is happening in the trenches, and research of all avaliable information and statistics - not just the "housing woes" and "doom and gloom" sensationalism predictions.

But I could be wrong. Time will tell.

Bill

[mortimer]

londonbarcelona mentioned:

> Originally Posted by jenkaye
> > Our house is for sale and the prices are dropping every week!!!
>
> That SUCKS.......

Not for the buyers.

[LovestheSun]

I believe another factor that is adding to the worrisome real estate market (from the sellers perspective) that has not been mentioned too much is this thread, is the fact that there are many folks who HAVE to sell their house right now, either as a short sale or full blown foreclosure. Folks are extended to the hilt, and this glut of homes on the market is not necessarily going to abate for the simple fact that many are either held by desperate homeowners trying to avoid foreclosure, or are empty (for too many reasons to go into here). Simply put, the flood of homes on the market are not going to just go away. Each month results in the investor/builder/banker having to pay out on an empty house, manage utilities/taxes etc. This real estate phenomenon is not just Arizona's current worry; but one that is impacting real estate markets all over.

I raise this point because this thread seemed to focus on the glut in the market, but not as much focus on the desperate factors that have made this so. I believe these factors will ripple through the housing industry for months to come.

My two cents anyways....