Definitely a localization in housing downturn (Phoenix, Scottsdale: apartment, rental homes, condo)
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It's a matter of supply and demand. If there are no homes for sale in a desirable area, and one goes on the market with no competition, the price will hold up. If the area is flooded with homes, and few buyers, the prices will go down.
I was driving through the area on either side of Warner and McClintock. Some of the areas there are Circle G Ranch, Corona Del Sol, and Estates la Corina. There are a very few homes for sale in those areas. In general it is a horse property area with large lots. I could count the for sale signs that I saw on one hand.
The more homes there are to choose from, the pickier the buyers will be. They will keep looking to find the exact home they're looking for.
But if they want to live in a particular area, say Corona Del Sol, and there is only one home for sale and it meets most of their needs, then they will most likely settle for that in order to live in the area.
It's pretty blah across the board. I hope realtors get together and start some joint marketing efforts. For example, CA is still overpriced. The most recent CA. Association of Realtors report indicates that only 24% of residents can afford a starter home and that you need an income nearinf $100K to afford it if you can.
In the Bay Area, you need an income of $140K to buy an entry level house.
Realtors here should be running their ads in the CA weeklies.
It's pretty blah across the board. I hope realtors get together and start some joint marketing efforts. For example, CA is still overpriced. The most recent CA. Association of Realtors report indicates that only 24% of residents can afford a starter home and that you need an income nearinf $100K to afford it if you can.
In the Bay Area, you need an income of $140K to buy an entry level house.
Realtors here should be running their ads in the CA weeklies.
Jon, just like the old addage, you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink -- Realtors can bring buyers but can't make them buy.
Here's an excerpt from a recent article:
“Order-taking” real estate agents*. The hive during the boom years was real estate, and multitudes of the dot-com-busted became the worker-bees of real estate sales. Everyone and anyone got licensed and into the frenzy. Little did they know that seasoned (pre-boom), full-time, professional agents possessed ready, willing and able buyers, knew how to sooth seller’s anxieties, and produced the fifth highest year in real estate sales, in 2007."
The good realtors know how to market for buyers, and to work with their sellers. The good realtors won't take an overpriced listing because they know the seller will later blame them for it not selling. In the meantime it will cost the agent a lot of money and a lot of time trying to market an overpriced property.
Unfortunately the print media, as you suggested, does not work anymore. I use print media very selectively. It's mostly a waste of money. Over 80% of the home buyers of today search the internet first.
One of my recent buyers had searched the internet and decided on the area. They pointed out to me a couple of homes they liked on the internet, and then sat down and gave me more detail regarding their needs. Their preliminary search saved them time because they now knew what they wanted, where they wanted to live and were able to convey that to me.
From that information I was able to pull up 6 homes that met their criteria and they ended up buying one of those homes. They didn't have to spend weeks of their valuable time looking at homes that didn't fit their criteria.
I market for buyers in many different ways, both for local buyers and for buyers relocating from out of state.
But no matter how much I market, I cannot reduce the inventory that's out there. I can service my own buyers because I know how to discover their needs and find the right home for them in a very short period of time.
Hoards of people came from California to jump on the bandwagon. They were investors. Now they're afraid because they got burned. Things have to settle down before they return.
Areas like Dobson Ranch didn't increase as rapidly as areas further out so they will go through less correction. Also, there are no new housing developments around to compete with the resales.
I do believe to a point that areas out in far pinal county (florence and maricopa, etc) are plagued with foreclosures due to investers and the massive amounts of people who bought out there in a panic with fishy loans. Also, there are lots of people that bought in those areas who now hate life because they realize they hate living so far out and can't sell their house at this point because of the market.
Dobson Ranch was nice in it's day... my grandparents lived there for years. Now it's old and in mesa which is not very desireable to me. I'm about 10 or 15 minutes further out than you in Gilbert and would never trade it for your mesa location. It's all about a persons point of view and what they are looking for.
Last edited by ILoveAZ; 11-30-2007 at 08:31 AM..
Reason: spelling correct
I agree it's about what you want. Personally I can't stand Gilbert. It has absolutely no character and is full of people who wish they could afford to live in Scottsdale.
It's pretty blah across the board. I hope realtors get together and start some joint marketing efforts. For example, CA is still overpriced. The most recent CA. Association of Realtors report indicates that only 24% of residents can afford a starter home and that you need an income nearinf $100K to afford it if you can.
In the Bay Area, you need an income of $140K to buy an entry level house.
Realtors here should be running their ads in the CA weeklies.
That is one of the reasons that we are moving to the area. I could make $120k where I live on the coast. Even with a down turn here the prices are still in the $450K range for a 50 year old starter home. We figured that I can make $75 to $90 K in Phoenix and live in a $200 K home that will be new when we move in. Those are much better numbers. Yes you make less money. But the money buys so much more.
I agree it's about what you want. Personally I can't stand Gilbert. It has absolutely no character and is full of people who wish they could afford to live in Scottsdale.
AZ, a lot of people I know can afford several homes in Scottsdale, but prefer to live in Gilbert. They all have their own reasons.
I chose Gilbert because I love the Val Vista Lake area where I can live on the lake in a community that has green grass and trees that make me forget that I live in a desert.
I agree it's about what you want. Personally I can't stand Gilbert. It has absolutely no character and is full of people who wish they could afford to live in Scottsdale.
I don't know one person who lives in Gilbert and wishes they could afford to live in Scottsdale. In fact, most people I know would HATE to live in Scottsdale. I do agree with you re: the lack of character though. Frankly, though, I'd say that about most of the valley. Gilbert looks just like Chandler which looks just like Glendale which looks just like Surprise.... Yes, there are a few differences, but overall, it all looks the same to me. Actually, most suburbs in America look the same to me, with obvious regional and geographic differences. For example, Cary, NC looks and feels just like a green, hilly Gilbert, AZ to me. You'd be hardpressed to find character in most newer 'burbs nationwide.
(used to be Iloveaz) Oh yes and mesa is full of character. Or should I say Character(s) LOL.
Were actually purchasing some land to build a home on when the kids are a bit bit bigger and were ready to move again. We had contemplated Scottsdale but are leaning towards staying right in the same area of Gilbert were in now. Oddly, we don't find much of a price difference in the cost of the lots. Scottsdale is very nice and a great place to live but I don't love that a huge percentage of your lot has to stay desert and it isn't as friendly for involved families as Gilbert is. It's more of an adult friendly community... you know, for people who like the night life. With four kids at the end of the day I am wayyy too tired to go out!
Last edited by ILuvAZ; 12-04-2007 at 09:03 AM..
Reason: spelling
In my neighbourhood - Dobson Ranch Mesa it seems to me that house prices have only marginally decreased. I bought in October 2005 just before the height but what I see on the market locally in my area (not that much) is still selling for about the same. Right now it seems that the places which are getting hit badly are those where people went as far out as possible to get as much as they could. "Central" areas like mine where it's 30 - 45 mins to Scottsdale, Tempe and Phoenix where the good jobs are seem to be holding up. Anyone sense the same thing?
I live in the North Chandler/Ahautukee/South Tempe area and the houses in my area have actually increased in value. My house has steadily increased in value. The only change I've noticed is that it takes longer to sell a house. Two years ago, a house here wouldn't be on the market for than a few weeks. Now, houses in my neighborhood are on the market for months. There were 3 houses for sale in my neghborhood since June. Two of them sold in August. One is still on the market. However, these houses got asking price or to close asking price. This has to do with supply not decreased demand. Yeah, the houses sold faster two years ago but there were far less on the market as people were wanting to sit and allow their homes to increase in value. Now, a lot of people are getting scared and trying to dump their homes so there are more houses on the market but still not to the point that houses have dropped in value.
The biggest housing busts are in the extemities like Suprise, Queen Creek, Anthem. You are right, the "central" areas have and are still in demand. I keep trying to tell people that but they don't want to listen. Demand has everything to do with this not just arbitrary market trends which people tend to spout here. I know that people are still willing to pay upward of 2 million dollars for homes in Paradise Valley and Scottsdale's DC ranch.
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