House prices seen falling more than 30%; significant declines expected in Arizona; worst downturn since World War II... (Scottsdale: apartment, foreclosure)

[sheena]

Originally Posted by Boatdrinks

Morrison Ranch is in a beautiful area. The only downside is that I believe it's Higley school district. But they've done a really nice job with that development. And the location is fabulous too. That Field of Dreams park is going to be really cool!

It's Gilbert schools Highland High and a division of Greenfield Jr and Highland Jr. We were going to buy in Morrison Ranch. I like it because it's grass and tree lined streets with cute mailboxes.

[markas214]

A price drop of 30% would still leave homes priced more than 50% higher than they were in 2000. A >60% drop from peak will be very likely in areas like Buckeye, Maricopa, Casa Grande etc. Homes that sold for $119,000 in 2000 sold to the final batch of speculators, the suckers, for over $250,000. Currently they range from 150s-200. Those homes will likely fall below $110,000 at the bottom which fortunately is coming sooner rather than later. Better to get the bleeding over quickly.

[markas214]

Originally Posted by GilbertMom

I am sorry for you if you bought a house that d has declined in value in Arizona, but the vast majority of homes in Arizona continually appreciate in value because of high demand from baby boomers, young professionals and retirees moving here for the natural beauty and enternal sunshine.

I'll have what she's drinking. Make it a double.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by markas214

I'll have what she's drinking. Make it a double.

No joke.

Maybe GilbertMom is a realtor; that group of people seem to be in denial about the imploding housing market.

And; add in the probable effect of many illegal immigrants being forced out of Arizona as well as the upcoming recession (which may already be here)------which will crush the market even more.

Anybody remember 1988? The average price declines will likely be even higher percentage wise.

[altus2006]

markas214,

How did you come up with this assessment?

"Those homes will likely fall below $110,000 at the bottom which fortunately is coming sooner rather than later. Better to get the bleeding over quickly."

altus2006

[micrguy]

At least in my old neighborhood in north central Phoenix it appears that house values are just correcting themselves to where they would have been without the bubble. We bought our house in 1999 for $95,000 and with normal Phoenix annual appreciation of 8% our house would have been worth around $175,000 right now. Houses in our neighborhood at the peak of the boom were selling for $250,000, so if you take away 30% that leaves you at $175,000. So the 30% correction does not seem too far off.

[sheena]

Originally Posted by markas214

I'll have what she's drinking. Make it a double.

And on the rocks

[James Brown]

yes...let it drop...let it drop

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

Originally Posted by GilbertMom

I am sorry for you if you bought a house that d has declined in value in Arizona, but the vast majority of homes in Arizona continually appreciate in value because of high demand from baby boomers, young professionals and retirees moving here for the natural beauty and enternal sunshine.

Where have you been for the past year? Your sitting in a major declining area. I for one like the fact that it is dropping. But then they are still working on the concept of building my home. Each time the market changes the builder resets the price and we pay a little less than the original price. I hope this continues during the entire 2008 year. Homes did appreciate during the past few years but for now that party is over. Maybe in Gilbert they are still appreciating. I assume you reside there. Maybe every place in the valley is taking a dive accept for Gilbert. I have no knowledge of what the prices are doing there. Maybe someone can find out the statistics for sale prices in Gilbert and the rest of the Valley.

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

Where have you been for the past year? Your sitting in a major declining area. I for one like the fact that it is dropping. But then they are still working on the concept of building my home. Each time the market changes the builder resets the price and we pay a little less than the original price. I hope this continues during the entire 2008 year. Homes did appreciate during the past few years but for now that party is over. Maybe in Gilbert they are still appreciating. I assume you reside there. Maybe every place in the valley is taking a dive accept for Gilbert. I have no knowledge of what the prices are doing there. Maybe someone can find out the statistics for sale prices in Gilbert and the rest of the Valley.

The Gilbert area has declined along with the rest of the valley, but much less than Surprise and Queen Creek, because of the latter areas having a proliferation of new builds.

In Val Vista Lakes in Gilbert, the prices are well above the 2004 prices. There are buyers, but many are looking for "exactly" what they want. In a normal market, buyers will compromise on some features, but many today won't, because they have more choices.

The decline seems to be slowing in the east valley areas. We just finalized a contract for one of my listings. It was on the market for 30 days before a couple decided to make an offer, and it was 20 days before they were able to get their own house listed so as to contract for a sale on contingency of selling their home.

In July, 3 months before I took the listing, I had comp'd the house at around $318k. It sold for $314k. For that area this house effectively showed no decline from July to December because we're really dealing with a range of prices from around $310 to $320.

Soon I'll be listing a home that has a positive/negative feature. We're waiting for the owner to do some clean up and preparation before placing it on the market. The listing price will reflect a deduction for that negative, so our challenge is to select a price that will allow some flexibility in negotiation and also be able to show the prospective buyer, through use of the comps, that the price reflects a deduction for the negative feature.

The price will still be above the 2004 value.

In each pocket there are homes that will do better, and homes that will do worse. If there are some negatives about the home, such as bad view, power lines, etc., those homes will not do as well.

One of the best pieces of advice for buyers and realtors is for the buyer to make a list of their "must have" features, a list of the "nice to have" features, and a list of their "shall not have" features. By searching for homes in the buyers chosen area, and utilizing those lists, the realtor will save him/her self and their clients a tremendous amount of time.

Bill