House prices seen falling more than 30%; significant declines expected in Arizona; worst downturn since World War II... (Gilbert: short sale, real estate)

[James Brown]

to be quite honest...i still think the prices for these homes are overpriced especially in these "new areas"...i think builders got greedy and buyer got desperate...there is no way some of these homes should be selling at the prices they are...now i am not talking about scottsdale, etc i am talkin about new housing developments in the middle of nowhere, no infrastucture, no shops, no good schools, you know what cities i am talking about...etc...i think if builders were happy to just build houses and have them competitively but reasonably priced we would not be in this downtown...especially when u factor how greedy lender/builders got giving anyone money to anyone to meet their quota...and they didnt think of the future...what goes up must come down...i think arizona still has not reached rock bottom yet...these houses people are buying now...in "new" areas are going to be worthless...mark my words...they are going to worth less than people paid for...it happened in Maricopa its gonna hit FAR more areas soon....watch and see....and for those who just wanna live in a nice home for cheap it would be perfect but when it comes to selling it will be tough

anyways read the article below...


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Housing markets from Punta Gorda, Florida, to Stockton, California, will crash and suffer price drops of more than 30 percent before the housing crisis is over, a report from Moody's Economy.com said on Thursday.
Moderator cut: copyright
House prices seen falling 30 pct: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance (broken link)

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by James Brown

...these houses people are buying now...in "new" areas are going to be worthless...mark my words...

James, I have your words marked.

I love the articles choice of words. In the first short paragraph they use three of the famous journalistic sensationalism type words crash - suffer - crisis.

And James I love your title, which mixed several phrases into this composite:

House prices seen falling more than 30%; significant declines expected in Arizona; worst downturn since World War II...

That's a blanket statement and is not quite what the article said. They named a few areas that they expect to see a "peak to trough" decline of 35 to 40%, and they mentioned others that they expect to see a 15% decline.

They did not mention that there are pockets in the country that are seeing steady increases.

They didn't mention what is being done to help the people whose rates are due to increase in order to reduce the foreclosure rate in 2008.

In Surprise, some of the homes have already seen more than a 40% drop. A short sale that I have there has dropped a little more than 40% and some of the homes in that vicinity have sold at around 45% less than the "peak". These were 2005 new builds.

Homes in my area have declined around 10%. From the comps, I estimate that my residence which I bought in 2004 increased around 20% to the peak and has lost less than half of that gain. This home and others like it will hold their values better because they are in prime areas.

The three most important criteria in real estate will never change. It has always been and always will be Location, Location, Location.

As I look to buy investment property, I look in the prime areas for undervalued homes. I think the homes in Surprise sometime in the future will be a good investment, but it is not a prime area. And because of the overbuilding and so many homes vacant or rented they will take a longer time to recover.

I mention Surprise because it is such a nice area, but unfortunately it has been hit very hard by this credit/overbuild situation.

Queen Creek is similar, and it has additional problems such as the current lack of sufficient highways, and by the fissure problems in the area.

People choose to live in each of those areas for very specific reasons and they usually love it. So it is unfortunate that the markets there have been hit so hard.

Bill

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

Our builder just called yesterday. They are reducing our price by $30,000 over in Surprise Farms.(A 15% decrease.) We were willing to buy at the former price but are happy to pay less. We have yet to have our construction meeting with the builder and the developer. That may not be for a few months. I am hoping that the price is reset a few more times between now and then. They tols us that if may very well do that before we close. Maybe the prices are out of sink for what they should be. That is ok because I am a happy participant.

[altus2006]

Sounds good to me about the price reductions!

Who is your builder?

altus2006

[blueeyz911]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

Our builder just called yesterday. They are reducing our price by $30,000 over in Surprise Farms.(A 15% decrease.) We were willing to buy at the former price but are happy to pay less. We have yet to have our construction meeting with the builder and the developer. That may not be for a few months. I am hoping that the price is reset a few more times between now and then. They tols us that if may very well do that before we close. Maybe the prices are out of sink for what they should be. That is ok because I am a happy participant.

$30,000 is a NICE deduction. Are these Richmond American homes?

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

Originally Posted by altus2006

Sounds good to me about the price reductions!

Who is your builder?

altus2006

Richmond American is the builder. I bet though that if they are doing it that many others will be reducing there prices. We also bought in Surprise Farms.

[sheena]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

Our builder just called yesterday. They are reducing our price by $30,000 over in Surprise Farms.(A 15% decrease.) We were willing to buy at the former price but are happy to pay less. We have yet to have our construction meeting with the builder and the developer. That may not be for a few months. I am hoping that the price is reset a few more times between now and then. They tols us that if may very well do that before we close. Maybe the prices are out of sink for what they should be. That is ok because I am a happy participant.

The way it's going before it's built you will be under 100,000. That's not a bad thing. I saw a realtor advertising 20 3,800 sqft homes up in Surprise for 232,000.

[GilbertMom]

I am sorry for you if you bought a house that d has declined in value in Arizona, but the vast majority of homes in Arizona continually appreciate in value because of high demand from baby boomers, young professionals and retirees moving here for the natural beauty and enternal sunshine.

[GilbertMom]

Originally Posted by GilbertMom

I am sorry for you if you bought a house that d has declined in value in Arizona, but the vast majority of homes in Arizona continually appreciate in value because of high demand from baby boomers, young professionals and retirees moving here for the natural beauty and enternal sunshine.

Oops! Meant "eternal sunshine."

[GilbertMom]

We looked at some beautiful new homes at Morrison Ranch (SE of Elliot and Higley) yesterday that range in size from 2300 to 4400 square feet on large 75' x 130' lots. They had a one-story, +3300 sq. ft model that has a spectacular floor plan! The monthly HOA is only $80 and includes multiple sport courts, tot lots and open space.