Real estate has already experienced double digit gains from 2013! :) (Phoenix: for sale by owner, apartment)

[Paige65]

Originally Posted by DetroitN8V

This is purely observational, but the market here in North Scottsdale in the $400k-800k range seems to have really softened. I'm watching several nicely updated houses that have been sitting for 120 days+ that are priced below $200/sq ft.

I'm looking in this general range in North Scottsdale, Cave Creek and Carefree and I've noticed the same. And in the past several weeks, a handful of homes in the $600,000 to $900,000 range have sold for between $75,000 and $125,000 lower than the original list price. There are many, many homes that are approaching 100 days+

Obviously, like yours, just an observation, but the report that said luxury homes are doing well surprised me.

[AZ Tracy]

Inventory is up, but sales are down. Click HERE for a report that just came out.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by Roger427

Mine was originated in Oct 2000 and rate was 7.75% conventional. Doubt I paid any points.

Thanks -this is what has driven affordability in the last 30+ years: falling mortgage rates. If you figure median real household income dropped by 10% since 2000 but mortgage rates dropped by 50% you get better net affordability for buying homes. However going forward rates would have to drop to below 2% on a 30 year fixed home loan to get the same boost again. We're getting close to "free mortgages". Not sure if this is going to happen.

[Potential_Landlord]

Some good signs according to the realtor <your zip code> leaflet the demand by buyers is showing first signs of revival and we may not see too much of a drop later this year in the usual weak RE season. The two leading indicators I have learned work best for the economy, the 10 year - 1 year Treasuries spread (leading by +/- 18 months) and the random lumber futures price (leading by +/- 6 months) are both pointing up again. These are just qualitative leading indicators and say nothing about the rebound strength but do point to better economic growth and a better RE market. We'll see how it goes from here for the rest of the year but my feeling is the Phoenix RE market will surprise to the upside.

[Newporttom]

I bought 2 homes in Coldwater Springs at very close to the bottom. $90,000. They are listing about $145,000 right now which is nice. But back in the boom they were selling for $250K, or $260K. (I see the histories.) So in those cases they haven't come anywhere close the the boom prices. These are homes about 1600SF.

[kell490]

I don't give any stock in these perfections no one really knows. The big thing will be if interest rates start to tick up some it will generate a frenzy of buying as people want to lock in low rates. I hope we have a good year I plan on selling and moving to Oregon next year. I won't use an agent been burned too many times by low ball price listings only to hand over 6% for a few days of work. I sold my home back in 03 after foolishly allowing my agent to price the home a few thousand over comps it sold in 24 hours and then the guy who bought it listed it again a few weeks later sold it for 10k more.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by AZ Tracy

Inventory is up, but sales are down. Click HERE for a report that just came out.

Thanks Mike Orr is always worth reading.

I value what he has to say a lot.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by AZ Tracy

Inventory is up, but sales are down. Click HERE for a report that just came out.

Thanks for the link Tracy!
"The monthly median sales price for single family homes was $199,000 in September 2013. Our February figure of $204,520 is only up by 2.8% over the last 6 months. We may be looking at little to no annual appreciation within 6 months time if prices behave as we currently expect."


Late last year, my crystal ball thought the same thing. But as he said, this Phoenix market is highly volatile. It might go up some but it's not out of the realm for it to drop YOY too.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by kell490

I don't give any stock in these perfections no one really knows. The big thing will be if interest rates start to tick up some it will generate a frenzy of buying as people want to lock in low rates. I hope we have a good year I plan on selling and moving to Oregon next year. I won't use an agent been burned too many times by low ball price listings only to hand over 6% for a few days of work. I sold my home back in 03 after foolishly allowing my agent to price the home a few thousand over comps it sold in 24 hours and then the guy who bought it listed it again a few weeks later sold it for 10k more.

I caught a Surprise dentist trying to explain I had deep pockets (several +5 depths) in my teeth. That required some treatments costing $600. He could not proceed with even a cleaning until I agreed. I walked out. A 2nd opinion confirmed he was lying (nothing was higher than a 3).

So using your logic, should I ever trust a dentist again? You get my point. You needed a 2nd opinion and possibly a 3rd. Recently, I had to do a lot more research to find an honest dentist. It seems you need to do some more homework and locate an honest and knowledgeable Realtor.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by kell490

I don't give any stock in these perfections no one really knows. The big thing will be if interest rates start to tick up some it will generate a frenzy of buying as people want to lock in low rates. I hope we have a good year I plan on selling and moving to Oregon next year. I won't use an agent been burned too many times by low ball price listings only to hand over 6% for a few days of work. I sold my home back in 03 after foolishly allowing my agent to price the home a few thousand over comps it sold in 24 hours and then the guy who bought it listed it again a few weeks later sold it for 10k more.

If you asked a person who passed away in say 1960 what "normal" interest rates are like he would have said 2.5 - 3 % on the 10 year treasury note. That was the range from about 1935 - 1956, no less than 21 years. I'm just saying we are so used to and conditioned by interest rates to either move up or down considerably in the post 1956 era that nobody assumes low interest rates are here to stay for decades. Nobody. History shows it is very much possible though. As markets have a way of fooling most people I say we will have low interest rates (and inflation) for the foreseeable future. I also noticed this huge demand for floating rate bonds recently. People holding cash will be screwed and people holding rental properties and stocks purchased at good valuations will be the winners. Then after decades everyone will be conditioned again to assume long-term interest rates will always be 2.5 - 3% and then they will go up.