Best and worst case possible future scenarios for Phoenix as presented by Phoenix Magazine (Tucson: townhouse, landscaping)

[phoenixmike11]

The best and worst possible case future scenarios for Phoenix as envisioned by Phoenix Magazine (and other predictions for Arizona)-

Future Phoenix | Valley News

[Valley Native]

656,000 people in Mesa by 2035??? Somehow, I don't see that happening. Sure, Mesa has been a fast growing suburban city, but I think its days of rapid growth are over because there's very little room to annex more land & grow outward ... so I guess the only way would be to start building upward like Tempe is doing.

2021: Intrigued by the “Phoenix Renaissance,” Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum – principal investor of Dubai’s 2,722-foot Khalifa Tower – breaks ground on a 1,000-foot skyscraper in Downtown Phoenix. It will be the tallest building west of the Mississippi.

It would be a good idea, but it won't materialize. The FAA would quickly shoot it down ... and the NIMBYs would complain that it would be too tall, block their sunlight, their mountain views, and whatever kinds of garbage they can conjure up. I think the best we can hope for at this point would be for more 30 or 40 story buildings to be built downtown, and along the Central Corridor.

[Ponderosa]

HaHa. Some funny things in that article. And I did not know that Arpaio's staged assassination plot ended up in a $1.6 million award to the "assassin". So I learned from it too.

[DougStark]

Final thoughts re: the future of Phoenix metro. The region needs to aggressively address the problem of the ever increasing "heat island" effect. This problem will only get worse as time goes by as more asphalt and homes are built.

EPA is well aware of this problem and has some methods to mitigate the heat island problem- cool asphalt paving, white roofing materials, shade tree lined streets, etc. Phoenix will one day become so hot no one will want to invest here.

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by DougStark

Final thoughts re: the future of Phoenix metro. The region needs to aggressively address the problem of the ever increasing "heat island" effect. This problem will only get worse as time goes by as more asphalt and homes are built.

EPA is well aware of this problem and has some methods to mitigate the heat island problem- cool asphalt paving, white roofing materials, shade tree lined streets, etc. Phoenix will one day become so hot no one will want to invest here.

The problem boils down to water used per person. What would make us both more water efficient and more able to mitigate a lot of these effects would be to have more townhouse-like homes (maybe small patio yards or something) being built then large common green spaces surrounding them in the urban areas. You use a lot less water doing it this way versus spread out single family homes each with their own lawn. It's simple logic, you build a higher density with people using less water for their own lawns you have more water to create green space and shade trees. Build the houses out of Masonry and have each with a flat roof.

Tucson requires each of its buildings to have a certain percentage off cool white roof on their construction vs the terra cotta or asphalt shingles we use.

California uses a lot of white pavement.

All of these would be for the better imo.

[new2colo]

Funny how Surprise was left out of the entire article. I can see Mesa continuing to grow rapidly. It's already on the verge of becoming too large to be considered a suburb of Phoenix. I can honestly see Mesa becoming what Fort Worth is to Dallas. It will take a lot of work, but it could happen. I think Mesa's downtown could really be transformed into what one would expect from a city of around 500,000. Once light rail opens in a week or so, things could really change if the city is smart.

The rest of the article is just a shot in the air. It's funny to look back at videos from the 1960s predicting what the 2000s would be like. There are so many technological advances that will be made in the next 20+ years that we can't even envision today. I don't really see Arizona's economy changing any time soon. We're making no progress economically and our schools are still failing. The only time this area prospers is when developers are covering agricultural fields with tile roof homes. That's happening, but until there are some changes in diversifying our economy and strengthening our educational system, it will be nothing like it was ten years ago.

The real issue is water. Lake Mead will not be filling up this winter. It would literally have to snow thousands of inches this winter season in Colorado and Wyoming for that to happen. We are going to face severe water issues here starting in a few years.

[DougStark]

Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64

The problem boils down to water used per person. What would make us both more water efficient and more able to mitigate a lot of these effects would be to have more townhouse-like homes (maybe small patio yards or something) being built then large common green spaces surrounding them in the urban areas. You use a lot less water doing it this way versus spread out single family homes each with their own lawn. It's simple logic, you build a higher density with people using less water for their own lawns you have more water to create green space and shade trees. Build the houses out of Masonry and have each with a flat roof.

Tucson requires each of its buildings to have a certain percentage off cool white roof on their construction vs the terra cotta or asphalt shingles we use.

California uses a lot of white pavement.

All of these would be for the better imo.

Good points, poster. But, people, especially families, do not want to live on top of each other in town homes. I lived in a high density town home in so. California and I HATED IT. People on top of each other- yuck, and noise.

Arizona has plenty of land, unlike California, to keep the single family home model. But, I'd require every new home built in AZ to be Energy Star certified. As far as landscaping, homes and lawns in AZ don't use anymore water than the farms that they displace (verified by studies.) New irrigation technologies for landscapes are improving water use efficiency (rotating sprinkler heads, etc.) Hunter makes good sprinkler components.

Also, more could be done to educate homeowners on how to care for their trees. It's no coincidence that so many trees get blown down during monsoon wind storms; many have spindly roots because of inadequate irrigation systems.

[exit2lef]

An interesting concept, but Phoenix Magazine loses some credibility by inviting turncoat ex-Phoenician Jon Talton to participate. He hasn't lived here since 2007 and everything he writes is colored by his bitter nostalgia for the Phoenix he thought was better during his childhood. I'm all for realistic commentary and inconvenient truths, but let them come from someone who has skin in the game. For Talton, everything seems to about saying "told ya so" as loudly and frequently as possible.

[JGMotorsport64]

Originally Posted by DougStark

Good points, poster. But, people, especially families, do not want to live on top of each other in town homes. I lived in a high density town home in so. California and I HATED IT. People on top of each other- yuck, and noise.

Arizona has plenty of land, unlike California, to keep the single family home model. But, I'd require every new home built in AZ to be Energy Star certified. As far as landscaping, homes and lawns in AZ don't use anymore water than the farms that they displace (verified by studies.) New irrigation technologies for landscapes are improving water use efficiency (rotating sprinkler heads, etc.) Hunter makes good sprinkler components.

Also, more could be done to educate homeowners on how to care for their trees. It's no coincidence that so many trees get blown down during monsoon wind storms; many have spindly roots because of inadequate irrigation systems.

You're right that they don't use a lot more water than the farms they displace.

BUT a lot of the development is going into virgin desert land at the fringes. Grass uses a lot more water than the native desert.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by exit2lef

An interesting concept, but Phoenix Magazine loses some credibility by inviting turncoat ex-Phoenician Jon Talton to participate. He hasn't lived here since 2007 and everything he writes is colored by his bitter nostalgia for the Phoenix he thought was better during his childhood. I'm all for realistic commentary and inconvenient truths, but let them come from someone who has skin in the game. For Talton, everything seems to about saying "told ya so" as loudly and frequently as possible.

Talton is very negative, which is one huge factor that has always gone against him. On the other hand, he does have vision, and he speaks the truth (sometimes more than what we want to hear). One thing I've always agreed with him on is his statement that Phoenix can no longer thrive on being sunny & cheap. Apparently we haven't learned from that, and keep plodding along on what worked 30 or 40 years ago. We will never be a world class metro area if we keep focusing mainly on weather/climate, snowbirds, and retirees.