Any guesses on home prices? (Phoenix, Pine: low income, 2013, mortgages)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Greeniis78

I personally would wait atleast a year. I dont think prices will rise anymore. The way I think is that the Fed wants us to be far from the reality and truth for their economic gain. As you can see more and more assisted down payment loans are coming out, there are some price cuts, and homes are staying longer on the market. But the housing market is great they say. Trust me im tempted to buy buy Im smart enough to just wait atleast a year and let this market take its course and not buy an over priced home.

You just described the Fall sales cycle in PHX. Read the Cromford report. Normally you can not see the report as it is a pay service. I googled "Cromford Report and November 2015". Cromford Report Monthly shows some posted data. read it an learn. In short, like every year it starts to pick up in January (and written as such). NO ONE has a crystal ball. But the Cromford is sooooooooo(and a few more)oooooooooo much better than some hacks (including myself) guessing. It's far from a weak market. But it depends on the price point. If you are looking to spend below $250K, it is a sellers market even in December. Above $300K and it softens. Above $500K, it softens more.

[GeneR]

Originally Posted by asufan

... FHA loans are also not looked at as attractive to lenders anymore as well, with a company such as Quicken considering not doing FHA's anymore.

I've not been able to find any details on this information. Can you direct us to any substantiating source for this claim? Quicken is the nation's number one originator of FHA loans.

[asufan]

Originally Posted by GeneR

I've not been able to find any details on this information. Can you direct us to any substantiating source for this claim? Quicken is the nation's number one originator of FHA loans.

Sure, folllow the link Gene

Quicken Loans considers quitting FHA loans | 2015-12-02 | HousingWire

[GeneR]

Thank you! Not surprised to read it's a reaction to the Dept of Justice (and we use that term 'Justice' loosely!) suit against Quicken.

[DougStark]

As I've posted before, the higher home prices in CA continue to increase, the higher home prices in Phoenix will also go up IMO (spill over effect of people fed up with SD and LA home prices.)

So far in 2015 and '16, So. CA real estate is again in record high price points. Some Californians won't consider Phoenix as an alternative, but many, especially those with children/families, will consider it. So I'm optimistic for the Phx RE market.

[LagunaMom]

They will continue to rise, although a factor of how fast is where you're looking.
We're investors (CA/AZ). Bought a lakefront house in Avondale a few months ago. Couldn't touch it for that price today.

[petlover8]

Originally Posted by LagunaMom

They will continue to rise, although a factor of how fast is where you're looking.......

Forecast Says U.S. Home Prices Are Overvalued, Will Peak In 2016 - Real Time Economics - WSJ

[Greeniis78]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

You just described the Fall sales cycle in PHX. Read the Cromford report. Normally you can not see the report as it is a pay service. I googled "Cromford Report and November 2015". Cromford Report Monthly shows some posted data. read it an learn. In short, like every year it starts to pick up in January (and written as such). NO ONE has a crystal ball. But the Cromford is sooooooooo(and a few more)oooooooooo much better than some hacks (including myself) guessing. It's far from a weak market. But it depends on the price point. If you are looking to spend below $250K, it is a sellers market even in December. Above $300K and it softens. Above $500K, it softens more.

Thanks that was a good read. But reality still feels like weve gone and hit the top of the market. I understand what you mean of it being a seasonal switch. But last year prices were lower so there was room to move up. I mean this isnt 2005 anymore where your gonna get a shack of a home for $300k...No thats long gone. And yes history does tend to repeat itself but not at the pace that 2005 hit. Trust me the fact that renting is so hot right now isnt because of chance. Alot of it is not just people that cant afford it. But also potential buyers that are aware of the situation that lies in front of them. With that said its better to wait.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Greeniis78

Thanks that was a good read. But reality still feels like weve gone and hit the top of the market. I understand what you mean of it being a seasonal switch. But last year prices were lower so there was room to move up. I mean this isnt 2005 anymore where your gonna get a shack of a home for $300k...No thats long gone. And yes history does tend to repeat itself but not at the pace that 2005 hit. Trust me the fact that renting is so hot right now isnt because of chance. Alot of it is not just people that cant afford it. But also potential buyers that are aware of the situation that lies in front of them. With that said its better to wait.

There are few approaches to predict what will happen in home prices. The 1st option is to toss out all of the metrics and simply say "no one can predict bla bla bla...". IMHO, that is the head-in-the-sand approach. NOTHING is 100%, but surely you can assess probabilities. There are times when the probabilities were weak and very volatile and then the Cromford report made that statement.

Option 2 is insert you own personal feelings into the mix without a nickels amount of research. To validate ones point of view, just google any asinine viewpoint and someone is going to pontificate what you were thinking a the world is full of paranoid people and articles cater to paranoia. As an example, google "World War 4" (World War 4 will supposedly be fought with sticks and stones), the "collapse of the world economy", "a MEGA asteroids hitting the earth", or "a Super bug killing millions of people". I made all of these up. But low-and-behold, see Superbugs could kill 10 million people a year, report warns - CBS News (and I can give you 20 more links related) on other cockamamie versions. All of these theories start with a small shed of possibilities and build up the remaining argument. Your theory starts with high rent prices plus a (typical) soft winter demand and you let your mind wander without any data to support your view.

I on the other hand use option 3 and lean on people who study the topic with actual statistical data. It just so happens PHX area has a guy who does just that. This RE region is incredibly unique to have such a person. So if I read you right, you thought, "Wow, that is interesting but I'm going to toss out that intense research to default what I personally think". Everyone has a right to go about it by themselves and trust their (zero research) gut feelings. Does that seem very logical you you?

[petlover8]

You can of course, quote from all the "experts" you want, or happen to agree with. But with facts like this starring you in the face, it takes quite an optimist to be bullish on a housing market most anywhere today. The fact of the matter is, regardless of how you try to sugar coat it, this nations economy is hanging by a thread. And the danger lies in the fact you don't hear anyone talking about solutions. That's because wealth has to be earned. It cannot be created by liberals in Washington trying to divide, and hand out what's left of it.

14 Signs That Most Americans Are Flat Broke And Totally Unprepared For The Coming Economic Crisis | Zero Hedge

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#7 One survey discovered that 52 percent of all Americans really cannot even financially afford the homes that they are living in right now.

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