Frustrated home buyer, West Valley (Phoenix, Glendale: homes, prices, budget)

[kell490]

Originally Posted by asufan

LOL, since 2013? I don't think so. Maybe since 2011 when we were at the bottom. Since 2013 prices have only increased in the 20-30% range, but leveled off more recently.

Yes that is what I meant 2013 the market started to rebound in AZ.

Example below of home near 67th ave and Union Hills.

That home sold for 155k in OCT of 2012 then again 1 month later for 226k now $93k higher on the market for 319k. With supply lacking I bet they get close to that price. This home isn't even 2000 sq feet. Look how it was flipped for 71k in profit sold 50 days later.



19506 N 66th Ln, for sale for 319k MLS #: 5372746
Glendale, AZ 85308

12/12/15 Listed for sale $319,900+41.0%
11/21/12 Sold $226,900+46.4% G. Johnson, D. Monger
10/01/12 Sold $155,000-51.6%

[asufan]

Originally Posted by kell490

Yes that is what I meant 2013 the market started to rebound in AZ.

Example below of home near 67th ave and Union Hills.

That home sold for 155k in OCT of 2012 then again 1 month later for 226k now $93k higher on the market for 319k. With supply lacking I bet they get close to that price. This home isn't even 2000 sq feet. Look how it was flipped for 71k in profit sold 50 days later.



19506 N 66th Ln, for sale for 319k MLS #: 5372746
Glendale, AZ 85308

12/12/15 Listed for sale $319,900+41.0%
11/21/12 Sold $226,900+46.4% G. Johnson, D. Monger
10/01/12 Sold $155,000-51.6%

The sale for 155k was a short sale cash offer at below market so that's not an apples to apples comparison on home values. For instance, the house I'm in now would appraise about +$130,00 from when I bought it in 2013, but I too bought my residence as a short sale and it was about $50k under market value, so the typical house in my neighborhood appreciated around $80k in that timespan, or ~14%. I know homes in the sub $200k market appreciated at a higher rate, just not 50-100% is all I'm saying (not including previous distressed sales of specific properties).

[asufan]

BTW, the most recently closed sales of model match floorplans to the property listed above sold for $255K (no pool) and $290K (pool). There's a similar slightly larger plan on a larger lot with superior upgrades that sold for $310K, so that would be the top point IMO, with the 290's being where the actual value is, not 319K. Just my opinion though.

[kell490]

12/12/15 Listed for sale $319,900+41.0% It's listed for $93k more then it sold for
11/21/12 Sold $226,900+46.4% G. Johnson, D. Monger Not a short sale

[asufan]

Originally Posted by kell490

12/12/15 Listed for sale $319,900+41.0% It's listed for $93k more then it sold for
11/21/12 Sold $226,900+46.4% G. Johnson, D. Monger Not a short sale

See my post above. List price does not equal sales price. 41 DOM and not under contract and no price reductions = time to reduce the price

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by asufan

See my post above. List price does not equal sales price. 41 DOM and not under contract and no price reductions = time to reduce the price

Your right. I was thinking 2011. In our hood, it's the basically up $100K from 2011. $90K is now $190K. $220K is now $320K.

[Packard fan]

To the OP: if at all possible, you MIGHT be better off renting a place because Phoenix may be fixin' to have another housing crash.

[John7777]

Originally Posted by Packard fan

To the OP: if at all possible, you MIGHT be better off renting a place because Phoenix may be fixin' to have another housing crash.

In all likelihood, I think so. People will say the economy is now in better shape than in 2007-2008, and that it's tougher to get a mortgage these days. But actually, the economy is not so hot and we're in the beginning stages of another recession and there's not much the Fed can do about it. Moreover, wages in the valley aren't so high. Simply put, wages have not kept up with home prices and we're on the verge of a downturn. Just wait a while and the real estate market will soften.

Paying $300K for a $150K house is not a smart move.

[jmw51882]

Based on the original post and other comments, I see two possibilities. One, the OP is looking for the purple unicorn of a house, rock bottom price, updated, tastefully decorated, great floorplan, amenities, and location. This will obviously not happen, a compromise will need to be made.


Option two, is that these listings do exist, but occur infrequently and are under contract within hours. In this case, you need to be willing to make an on the spot offer after dropping any plans in order to see the house as soon as it hits the market. In this case you need an agent who is really on top of things.

[pgc323]

"The Phoenix market is headed for a downturn/gonna crash again". I've been reading this ever since the market started to rebound 5 or 6 years ago. I think it's headed up a bit.