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Our Sun City based realtors remember not that many years ago they would talk to buyer clients about Sun City Grand. Many times those clients would say "we don't want to buy way out there!". Will development move NW of Phoenix? It's apparently happening now.
Of course. I balked at buying at Warner Ranch many years ago because it was too far out in the sticks. Far out is always relative.
Nothing confusing about it. I check the data on Maricopa County Assessor's website and key in my address (which is located in zip code 85018 by the way). You can get all kinds of info on your home this way, including the valuation, property description, taxes, etc. In 2013, the full cash value of my house was less than $200,000, but in 2016 the full cash value is close to $400,000. This figures to be just over a 120% increase in three years' time.
We disagree. I was confused because the 1st time you didn't mention that your metric was assessed value. When discussing the real value of a home (market value), it's best to ignore the assessed value (not entirely but it can be way off market value). For instance back when I bought in 2011, my house was assessed at $150K. I paid $35k more than that. Today, the assessed value is $235K. Again, they are off a cool $100K. It's worth $335K. The origional buyer paid a little over $500K back in 2006.
It's a fact that houses appreciated much faster (market value) back in 2013 versus 2015. for that matter, The fastest rise was from 2011 to 2013. Hence I was confused. The assessed value can be way behind what is actually happening during appreciation (OR way behind when it fell fast like back in 2007).
Also, I just looked on the Cromford report. In January 2013, in zip code 85018, the average SFH was $221.06/Square foot. In January 2016, it was $264.12. That appreciate was "only" 20% (not 120%). Not remotely close to 120%. In August of 2011 (THE bottom of recent market for your zip code) the average price per square foot was $141.19.. Hopefully you now see why I was confused and told you to check your numbers. The lionshare of the appreciation from from mid 2011 to 2013. From 2013 to 2016 was MUCH MUCH slower growth. Whatever your tax statement said doesn't seem to correlate with the raw data from the MLS (I used your zip code too). Furthermore your zip code hasn't gotten close to 120% total appreciation from the bottom (Aug 2011) to what it is today.
I cannot post the graph because it is copyright protected. So click on this link http://www.arizonarealestatenotebook...alskdjzxcmvnb/ . If you cannot modify the zip codes, you need to sign-up by just plugging in your email address. You will have a plethora of data that accurately shows your assessed value is way off.
Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 02-24-2016 at 06:20 PM..
I think the only potential growth will probably be where they decide to put the I-11 corridor.
By those photos, I'm not sure how the I-11 will affect the growth of West Valley. I remember hearing that they were PURPOSELY dodging putting the I-11 through the Phoenix metro. However if they choose one of the options which will takeover the freeway of... oh dear the link I always take from the I-10 to the I-8 forgot what it's called... then it will help growth in Buckeye by a long shot. But that's the only one I think.
Actually if the I-11 goes further East as in going through Wickenburg it will help Surprise.
Last edited by Prickly Pear; 02-24-2016 at 06:38 PM..
Reason: Added more content
By those photos, I'm not sure how the I-11 will affect the growth of West Valley. I remember hearing that they were PURPOSELY dodging putting the I-11 through the Phoenix metro. However if they choose one of the options which will takeover the freeway of... oh dear the link I always take from the I-10 to the I-8 forgot what it's called... then it will help growth in Buckeye by a long shot. But that's the only one I think.
Actually if the I-11 goes further East as in going through Wickenburg it will help Surprise.
I think I-11 will at least go to the future Wickenburg bypass and maybe make it all the way down to Morristown, before it makes a straight shot south past Sun City Festival and down to AZ-85. They could then upgrade AZ-85 to interstate standards (probably the cheapest option), then I-11 could overlay onto I-8, or they can break I-11 off of the current AZ-85 just south of the Gila River and build a brand new highway southeast to Maricopa/Casa Grande.
Also, I just looked on the Cromford report. In January 2013, in zip code 85018, the average SFH was $221.06/Square foot. In January 2016, it was $264.12. That appreciate was "only" 20% (not 120%). Not remotely close to 120%. In August of 2011 (THE bottom of recent market for your zip code) the average price per square foot was $141.19.. Hopefully you now see why I was confused and told you to check your numbers. The lionshare of the appreciation from from mid 2011 to 2013. From 2013 to 2016 was MUCH MUCH slower growth. Whatever your tax statement said doesn't seem to correlate with the raw data from the MLS (I used your zip code too). Furthermore your zip code hasn't gotten close to 120% total appreciation from the bottom (Aug 2011) to what it is today.
You have to also consider that 85018 takes up a pretty diverse area. It includes the Camelback East area as well as Arcadia, and south Arcadia (a less desirable area). What you're likely seeing on the report is an overall average of 85018, which includes some much older neighborhoods in the south end with smaller properties that aren't kept up as well. This is why you can't always go by the zip code alone.
My house is located north of Camelback and east of 32nd Street, which is in close proximity to the Biltmore area. The property values in our neighborhood took a fairly substantial hit during the economic downturn, but have increased quite nicely since 2011, and are still on the rise according to the info on the Maricopa County Assessor's website. All I did was plug in my address (and a few others on my street), and the data was there which indicated substantial increases in full cash value since 2013.
There are now quite a bit more listings on my way to work in North Phoenix. I would say it's not more than this time last year though. Let's not forget we've just had another rough spot in the economy the last quarter so this may also have affected our RE market. Overall it looks to me like the second half of this year may actually be better than the first.
You have to also consider that 85018 takes up a pretty diverse area. It includes the Camelback East area as well as Arcadia, and south Arcadia (a less desirable area). What you're likely seeing on the report is an overall average of 85018, which includes some much older neighborhoods in the south end with smaller properties that aren't kept up as well. This is why you can't always go by the zip code alone.
My house is located north of Camelback and east of 32nd Street, which is in close proximity to the Biltmore area. The property values in our neighborhood took a fairly substantial hit during the economic downturn, but have increased quite nicely since 2011, and are still on the rise according to the info on the Maricopa County Assessor's website. All I did was plug in my address (and a few others on my street), and the data was there which indicated substantial increases in full cash value since 2013.
Here what I am saying and I will use my home as an example. My Maricopa County Assessor's value is a cool $100K below market. I have comps in our neighborhood that shows it to be a fact. When my assessed value finally catches up the market value (and one day it will), should I say that my house appreciated $100K from February 2016 until Maricopa finally gets it right? Of course not! I'm saying this is exactly what you are seeing and this has absolutely nothing to do with the timing of what is actually occurring.
The reality is the busy assessor's office works in neighborhoods groups over-and-above what you have observed by global area increases. My guess is your value is probably close to market because your area was visited. There will be other areas that have not. Like your neighborhood, our hood is more desirable in our town versus the other adjacent subdivisions (see Homes in Surprise, AZ | Surprise, Arizona Real Estate | Marley Park ). There eventually will be an actual assessors that gets out in the field and physically look inside peoples homes. When that happens, I am going to see a big bump in assesssed values (legal limit per year). Because of this^^, the data I supplied.
So no, your market value didn't go up 120% either. It is why I said double check your work. The reality was the most sought after locations didn't have as much depreciation (and therefore not the same amount of overcorrection). In other words, if your hood inside of your global zip code has been more desirable, then it didn't over correct to the same percentage as the less desirable areas inside of the same zip code. Therefore further proof that they got the assessed values back in 2011 wrong (too low). In actuality which is a universal law, the biggest overcorrection areas are also the least desirable. It is why the outer burbs got slammed the most. The biggest overcorrection areas actually got the biggest percentage increases too because they overshot actual values. So you got it inverted. Buckeye and Avondale for instance had the fastest rebound and biggest percentage gains because they were actually LESS desirable. But once the equilibrium happened around early 2015, it has been the most desirable areas that have continued to appreciate the most and least desirable that has fallen a touch or flat.
But unlike what the thread stated, the best areas are barely up and the rest of the valley is actually going down. That's what the MLS data by zip codes is saying. Hence, most of the upbeat euphoria that people are discussing here isn't showing up in the numbers.
Of course there are areas that had better appreciation than others. I am not debating you actually saw a 120% assessed value increase. I'm saying like everyone else in the Valley, your bulk of the appreciation came from mid 2011 to mid 2013. The Maricopa website isn't telling you much, and no one in the entire value saw market increases of 120%.
Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 02-26-2016 at 07:23 AM..
I dunno, in the neighborhoods that I watch, the assessor's values are amazingly accurate, given the data sets they get. They don't know which houses have been fluffed & flipped, but they're pretty close to the market.
Like you mentioned, some neighborhoods over corrected on the way down & the market is in the process of rationalizing values now. I.e., if living in north Scottsdale is "worth" $300k minimum, maybe an equivalent house 15 minutes down the road is "worth" $250k - even if you're buying it from someone who only paid $90k during the crash. What the seller paid is *technically* irrelevant from a current-value standpoint, but I think most buyers still want to know that number & try to negotiate from there. The stigma seems to be falling away, which is rational, but it isn't instant. If markets were purely rational, there wouldn't have been any crash.
I dunno, in the neighborhoods that I watch, the assessor's values are amazingly accurate, given the data sets they get. They don't know which houses have been fluffed & flipped, but they're pretty close to the market.
Like you mentioned, some neighborhoods over corrected on the way down & the market is in the process of rationalizing values now. I.e., if living in north Scottsdale is "worth" $300k minimum, maybe an equivalent house 15 minutes down the road is "worth" $250k - even if you're buying it from someone who only paid $90k during the crash. What the seller paid is *technically* irrelevant from a current-value standpoint, but I think most buyers still want to know that number & try to negotiate from there. The stigma seems to be falling away, which is rational, but it isn't instant. If markets were purely rational, there wouldn't have been any crash.
The country targets getting to about 98% of the real market value. BUT there is normally a delay for assessed values to catch up to where the market is especially when the RE market moves quickly. When the market was dropping like a rock, people were complaining that their assessed value was too high. It's the same thing that is happen with the brisk appreciation from 2011 to 2014. The reality is it takes a year or more for the departments to catch-up. There is absolutely no doubt my assessed value is significantly low on MY house. I have full confidence they will eventually hit the real market value. But it might be a year or more longer even though my value is currently flat or going down slightly. So while my assesed value might rise $100K in the next year, this has nothing to do with the market value.
I propose Valley Native's assessed value took some time to catch-up and skewed his vision as to when the appreciation occurred. As I mentioned, I have very high doubts he actually received 120% appreciation from the fall to the rise. Now if he stole in on a short sale or put in $100K to trick it out, sure. But absolutely no part of the PHX area experienced that kind of growth in the past few years as his assessed value shows. Again, I have no doubt that his assessed value DID change by 120%. But the actual market didn't follow those gains no matter where he lives in his zip code.
Isn't there now a 5% pa cap on how much assessed values can go up? There was this weirdo prop a few years back.
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Furthermore your zip code hasn't gotten close to 120% total appreciation from the bottom (Aug 2011) to what it is today.
