So Where's El Niño? (rating, money, winters)

[Ponderosa]

The forecast remains for it to turn wet next week and stay that way for a while. We will soon be hearing on TV that El Nino has returned, whether it has anything to do with it or not. I will continue to maintain that the correlation, at least in Arizona, is pretty thin.

[Mike Warner]

Big rain coming for Cali, could be 6 inches in the north.



El Nino-driven storm to dent California's drought with inches of rain next week

[the topper]

It is a coming this weekend!!

[stevek64]

Originally Posted by Mike Warner

Big rain coming for Cali, could be 6 inches in the north.



El Nino-driven storm to dent California's drought with inches of rain next week

Excellent, let's hope it really happens.

Sounds like this climatologist might have all this right after all:

Let's talk about Arizona weather: What is El Niño?

""Last fall, University of Arizona climatologist Mike Crimmins said the rain could come in bunches and it could also come late in the winter. He said there are often lulls with little rain, even in strong El Niño years.

[BIG CATS]

Originally Posted by the topper

It is a coming this weekend!!

It usually seems to rain here on the weekends, which is a bummer. Those are the days I can get my hiking and biking in.

[Valley Native]

We're going to need a lot of precipitation in March and through the spring to make up for what we lost out on during February (and December for that matter). December was on the dry side, and February tied for the driest ever on record with no rain at all during the month. As I said before, I'm hoping for decent rain this month, but I'm not holding my breath. After March, the true dry season normally begins, and we're pretty much rainless until the summer monsoon. Last year was the exception, and I hope this year will be as well.

On top of the lack of rainfall, February was the second warmest on record with numerous record high temperatures broken throughout the month. The earliest 90 degree high occurred on the 17th. February would have easily been the warmest on record had it not been for a cold spell during the first week. It's not unusual for February to have a warm spell for a week or so with highs in the 80s, but an entire month of temperatures that are more typical of April or May is highly unusual.

[BestintheWest]

hope what is on the way beats the last storm, that ending up with almost no ran and ended up being a dust and wind event.

[ScottsdaleMark]

Yeah unfortunately based on what I'm seeing/reading this one will be just light rain ... some sprinkles maybe some showers, but probably only a fraction of an inch total. No gullywashers predicted. Sigh.

[eqttrdr]

Farmers Almanac > Meteorologists

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by ScottsdaleMark

Yeah unfortunately based on what I'm seeing/reading this one will be just light rain ... some sprinkles maybe some showers, but probably only a fraction of an inch total. No gullywashers predicted. Sigh.

After this big "storm" moves through, high pressure is expected to build again over the region, bringing more sunshine, and more above normal temps. This has been really been a wet winter, hasn't it?! NOAA definitely has their act together with all their advanced computer models, huh? The NWS seriously needs an overhaul, even if that means defunding them on a federal level, getting back to basic forecasts, and eliminating their bogus long range outlooks.

Originally Posted by eqttrdr

Farmers Almanac > Meteorologists

Exactly! The Farmer's Almanac was more accurate in their winter outlook than the Blather Service. This has been the second winter in a row which was predicted to be wetter than normal according to NOAA, and the exact opposite occurred both times.