Population with or without Snowbirds? (Mesa, Scottsdale: 2013, rentals, vacation home)

[TraceAyala51]

Hello -
According to Wikipedia, the population in Scottsdale is approximately 236,839.
My question is, is this the population including snowbirds? Or does that not reflect all the people who come here for the winter months? Are these numbers only for the population that lives here year round?

[ScottsdaleMark]

According to the Census Bureau, "Usual residence is defined as the place where a person lives and sleeps most of the time."

So most snowbirds would not be counted, assuming they spend more than half their time in their "home" state. However, I do wonder if there might not be a fair number of snowbirds who make sure to spend more than half their time in Arizona, perhaps due to lower taxes here than in their original state. So in that case, I would think they would identify themselves as Arizona residents for the Census, too.

Also, no Canadian national snowbird would be counted, I don't think, since they are not citizens (and they all have to spend more than half their time in Canada to retain Canadian benefits, I believe).

According to an ASU study, "The last study, conducted after the 2003-04 visitor season, estimated the state's seasonal population swelled by about 300,000 long-term visitors, with a spending impact of $1 billion."

According to the 2000 Census Data says in Scottsdale there are:
Total housing units 104974 100.00%
Occupied housing units 90669 86.37%
Vacant housing units 14305 13.63%
For seasonal, recreational, or occasional use 7938 7.56%
Homeowner vacancy rate (percent) 2.3
Rental vacancy rate (percent) 10.6

That was back in 2000 so I have to think we'd have more now.

I also found a City of Scottsdale demographics PDF that showed there are 99,860 occupied housing units in the city, and 29,574 that are vacant or seasonal housing. It said the homeowner vacancy rate was 1.9% and the rental vacancy rate was 9.3%. So if we account for that...that would imply to me at least, that there were well over 20,000 "vacation homes" or "seasonal rentals" in the City of Scottsdale, so it's hard to tell for sure.

[cab591]

I saw a more recent report, I'll try to find the link, but it put the number of seasonal visitors in the Valley (the whole metro, not just Scottsdale) closer to 400-450,000 each year.

Crazy to think that the population of a small city moves in for half the year.

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by cab591

I saw a more recent report, I'll try to find the link, but it put the number of seasonal visitors in the Valley (the whole metro, not just Scottsdale) closer to 400-450,000 each year.

Crazy to think that the population of a small city moves in for half the year.

I'd believe that number. That's pretty much the population of Mesa. So we are essentially dropping down one Mesa for the summer. No wonder my commutes this time of year are so much easier!

[cab591]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

That's pretty much the population of Mesa.

That's exactly how my friend described it when we were discussing the article -- It's literally one additional Mesa being added to the Valley each winter.

[BIG CATS]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

I'd believe that number. That's pretty much the population of Mesa. So we are essentially dropping down one Mesa for the summer. No wonder my commutes this time of year are so much easier!

Not to mention the parks, pools, and restaurants arent clogged with musky cologne-heavy senior citizens from Minnesnowta. The lines for meds at Walgreens are also waaaaaaaaaay shorter in summer.

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

A bit off topic, but does anyone think Mesa will have more people than Long Beach, CA or Hempstead, NY (the whole town, not the hamlet) and become the most populated suburb in the US?

[Prickly Pear]

Originally Posted by cab591

That's exactly how my friend described it when we were discussing the article -- It's literally one additional Mesa being added to the Valley each winter.

Eh, we can live without another Mesa

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220

A bit off topic, but does anyone think Mesa will have more people than Long Beach, CA or Hempstead, NY (the whole town, not the hamlet) and become the most populated suburb in the US?

It is already adding people at a faster rate than either of those and has more room to grow. It may already have surpassed Long Beach (they were very close in population according to the 2013 estimate), but it would have a long way to go to pass Hempstead. I doubt it ever will unless it annexes a lot of land to the southeast.

[FirebirdCamaro1220]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

It is already adding people at a faster rate than either of those and has more room to grow. It may already have surpassed Long Beach (they were very close in population according to the 2013 estimate), but it would have a long way to go to pass Hempstead. I doubt it ever will unless it annexes a lot of land to the southeast.

With the land they already have, if they made the areas east of Gilbert Rd as dense as the areas west of Gilbert Rd, they would have a population of around 900,000 or just a bit more than Hempstead, they would just have to infill on land they already have and increase density