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View Poll Results: By 2050, how big do you think the Phoenix metropolitan area will be?
In the 5 millions 9 7.83%
In the 6 millions 28 24.35%
In the 7 millions 32 27.83%
In the 8 millions 17 14.78%
In the 9 millions 2 1.74%
Larger than 10 million people 23 20.00%
Other 4 3.48%
Voters: 115. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-16-2018, 01:57 PM
 
Location: East Central Phoenix
6,541 posts, read 9,623,380 times
Reputation: 7569

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Quote:
Originally Posted by locolife View Post
This argument occurs everywhere, I travel extensively for work and I've never been to a city and heard "wages are exactly where they need to be for my city." It's always your argument, things are going up but my pay sure isn't.

I'd rather make $26/hr in Phoenix than $29/hr in LA or NY.

https://www.paychex.com/employment-watch/#!/wage-data/
Good point, but there was a time when you could get a lot more bang for your buck here than in other large cities. It's not so much that way anymore. What's really noticeable for a lot of people is the drastic increases in rent and utilities. No large city is cheap as far as I know, but there are some places where you can earn more and actually have a similar (or lower) cost of living compared to Phoenix, such as Dallas or Houston. In states like Texas, your net income is greater anyway because of no income tax, and this can make a considerable difference.
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Old 10-17-2018, 05:11 PM
 
510 posts, read 230,656 times
Reputation: 628
Quote:
Originally Posted by locolife View Post
I think your advice, along with many others, is being considered. There are 7 cranes in Tempe now and 5 or 6 in downtown Phoenix. You're seeing the downtown areas thrive, while I still believe there is demand for growth on the fringes the infill is certainly alive and well here.
There will always be a strong desire for unattached single family dwellings with a yards and plenty of space and needless to say there's plenty of land to build on in the Phoenix area. I believe Phoenix is still a young city that could design a well thought out master plan, similar to Portland, Oregon, for future growth, limiting outgrowth, while prioritizing family friendly high rise dwellings (4 stories and higher) near future schools and parks. What is now, a whole lot of dirt, or as locals call it, desert, could become a beautiful master planned oasis.
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Old 10-18-2018, 12:58 AM
 
3,035 posts, read 2,117,860 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angelino19 View Post
There will always be a strong desire for unattached single family dwellings with a yards and plenty of space and needless to say there's plenty of land to build on in the Phoenix area. I believe Phoenix is still a young city that could design a well thought out master plan, similar to Portland, Oregon, for future growth, limiting outgrowth, while prioritizing family friendly high rise dwellings (4 stories and higher) near future schools and parks. What is now, a whole lot of dirt, or as locals call it, desert, could become a beautiful master planned oasis.
Infill makes all the sense in the world and I agree that SFDUs will always be desired by families seeking a traditional American lifestyle. I’m one of the locals that supports preserving that brown dirt we call the Sonoran desert, home to plants and animals that live nowhere else on earth. A place that springs to life with green grass everywhere and sprouts wildflowers and fruit sometimes two tiles a year (spring and late summer). I can’t imagine a more unique environment to live in.
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Old 10-20-2018, 11:32 PM
 
3,335 posts, read 2,180,621 times
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City Proper: 2.2 million and Metro: 6.5 million
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Old 10-22-2018, 06:56 PM
 
277 posts, read 194,626 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by locolife View Post
Infill makes all the sense in the world and I agree that SFDUs will always be desired by families seeking a traditional American lifestyle. I’m one of the locals that supports preserving that brown dirt we call the Sonoran desert, home to plants and animals that live nowhere else on earth. A place that springs to life with green grass everywhere and sprouts wildflowers and fruit sometimes two tiles a year (spring and late summer). I can’t imagine a more unique environment to live in.
Rejoice most homes are built on former crop land not on wild desert
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Old 10-23-2018, 11:34 AM
 
Location: East Central Phoenix
6,541 posts, read 9,623,380 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by the topper View Post
City Proper: 2.2 million and Metro: 6.5 million
This is about what Houston's population is now. I can easily see Phoenix reaching these numbers in the next 30 years, but I highly doubt Phoenix as a city will move any higher in rank than #5 in the nation due to Houston still growing, and Chicago, L.A., and New York being so much larger. I can also possibly foresee another large Texas city (Dallas, San Antonio, or even Austin) moving up in rank and competing with Phoenix for the #5 spot some day.
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Old 10-23-2018, 11:55 AM
 
Location: Gilbert, Arizona
2,940 posts, read 1,400,025 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Valley Native View Post
Good point, but there was a time when you could get a lot more bang for your buck here than in other large cities. It's not so much that way anymore. What's really noticeable for a lot of people is the drastic increases in rent and utilities. No large city is cheap as far as I know, but there are some places where you can earn more and actually have a similar (or lower) cost of living compared to Phoenix, such as Dallas or Houston. In states like Texas, your net income is greater anyway because of no income tax, and this can make a considerable difference.
I think the rent increases are true, utilities are hit and miss depending on the place.

Water, sewer, trash, internet, cable, phone (cell/landline), electricity, are the main ones, but the most costly of them bunch are typically, cell service, cable, landline, and electricity. So some smart shopping would really help here. (i.e., buy your cell phone cash outright, go prepaid; subscribe to a streaming Internet cable service and get rid of cable itself; find a relatively energy efficient and reasonably sized place to rent to reduce cooling costs)
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Old 06-01-2019, 08:27 PM
 
Location: Tokyo, Japan
6,804 posts, read 9,122,157 times
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The 2018 census estimates were released for metropolitan statistical areas and combined statistical areas, Phoenix, by the way, has a CSA now too after the census definition realignment in November 2018.

This is the population as of 2018 for the Phoenix CSA;

Combined Statistical Areas, 2018:
01. New York-Newark, NY-NJ-CT-PA Combined Statistical Area: 22,679,948
02. Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Combined Statistical Area: 18,764,814
03. Chicago-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Combined Statistical Area: 9,866,910
04. Washington-Baltimore-Arlington, DC-MD-VA-WV-PA Combined Statistical Area: 9,778,360
05. San Jose-San Francisco-Oakland, CA Combined Statistical Area: 9,666,055
06. Boston-Worcester-Providence, MA-RI-NH-CT Combined Statistical Area: 8,285,407
07. Dallas-Fort Worth, TX-OK Combined Statistical Area: 7,957,493
08. Philadelphia-Reading-Camden, PA-NJ-DE-MD Combined Statistical Area: 7,204,035
09. Houston-The Woodlands, TX Combined Statistical Area: 7,197,883
10. Miami-Port St. Lucie-Fort Lauderdale, FL Combined Statistical Area: 6,913,262
11. Atlanta–Athens-Clarke County–Sandy Springs, GA-AL Combined Statistical Area: 6,775,511
12. Detroit-Warren-Ann Arbor, MI Combined Statistical Area: 5,353,002
13. Phoenix-Mesa, AZ Combined Statistical Area: 4,911,851
14. Seattle-Tacoma, WA Combined Statistical Area: 4,853,364

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combin...tistical_areas

Now for the 2018 MSA population;

Metropolitan Statistical Areas, 2018:
01. New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA MSA: 19,979,477
02. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA MSA: 13,291,486
03. Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI MSA: 9,498,716
04. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX MSA: 7,539,711
05. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX MSA: 6,997,384
06. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV MSA: 6,249,950
07. Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL MSA: 6,198,782
08. Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD MSA: 6,096,372
09. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA MSA: 5,949,951
10. Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH MSA: 4,875,390
11. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA: 4,857,962
12. San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA MSA: 4,729,484
13. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA MSA: 4,622,361
14. Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI MSA: 4,326,442


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...tistical_areas

Phoenix is now one of the higher growing regions in the United States, both its MSA and CSA added over + 95,000 people going from 2017 to 2018. In accordance with the information that I have available to me, I would double down on my vote for "in the 8 millions" for Greater Phoenix by 2050. At the bare minimum it will definitely be in the 7 millions by then.

Next year the Phoenix MSA surpasses the Boston MSA for 10th most populous in the United States. I think by 2032 or so that Phoenix MSA will move up to the #9 spot, surpassing the Philadelphia MSA in population and on the MSA list I think that is where Phoenix will top out for the remainder of all of our lifetimes. Phoenix will grow very quickly but many places that will be ahead of it already have a few million more people and some of them like Houston and Dallas/Fort Worth are adding the same number of people or far more every year, meaning the gap will stay consistent or grow wider. Atlanta, Miami/Fort Lauderdale, and Washington D.C. are not adding the number of people that Phoenix is adding in raw numbers but are still a few million up on Phoenix right now and all three are growing by a large sum annually as well.

As for CSAs, I don't think the Phoenix CSA can get into the Top 10 in there because the base is very high. Miami/Fort Lauderdale CSA is currently #10 on the CSA list with over 6.9 million people and adding + 65,000 people per year. By 2050, the Top 10 largest CSAs will be New York, Los Angeles, Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Washington DC-Baltimore, San Francisco Bay Area, Chicago, Atlanta, Miami/Fort Lauderdale, and Boston in that same order or roughly close to it with the Boston CSA being well over 9 million people or so by then (Boston CSA is already over 8.2 million people). I think Phoenix will be next up at #11, having surpassed the Philadelphia CSA in the process.

How are the development trends in Phoenix currently? Is the region beginning to build more vertically and embracing more density, especially in its core areas? How is the infrastructure as of the present moment? Hopefully there aren't any strains on the roads yet because the region can expect a few million more people in the coming decades for sure. Infrastructure is the one thing that has to stay ahead of the population growth curve and the creation of dense, functionally walkable areas in the heart of the city will go a long way to help. Expanding the light rail system to serve the denser corridors throughout the heart of the city will go the distance as well.

Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 06-01-2019 at 08:56 PM..
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Old 06-01-2019, 11:21 PM
 
15 posts, read 6,788 times
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Oh now this is really hard to answer.
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Old 06-03-2019, 02:29 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
865 posts, read 779,548 times
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In regards to those CSA, a cool note:

Boston and Providence being in the same CSA yet are about 40 miles apart

Drive 40+ miles from Anthem to Ahwatukee-still the same city. It's quite amazing to see how big the area is here. Especially coming from New England myself (and I've been in Phx for about 10 years LOL)
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