Phoenix Real Estate Predictions 2018 (Mesa, Gilbert: apartment, foreclose, leasing agent)

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by BigEinAz

It's curious that the student loan debt crisis that has been building over the past ten years or more isn't even on the radar of many so-called economic experts. This could very well be the catalyst for the next big "correction".

Student loans are a tiny %age of total consumer debt. Even if all fail (they won't) it wouldn't be a material impact to the economy. Same is true for car loans, maybe the next panic attention grabber media story ("car loans fail amid a wave of repossessions buy gold and ammo blablabla"). All these are dwarfed by mortgage debt.

[john3232]

I was involved in both ends of the housing bubble. I initially bought in 2005 and by 2009 was down 100 grand on each property. (Today the properties have recouped a bit more their what I paid for them and I would break even if sold.)

In 2010 I actually went back into the market by taking out a equity loan on the home I owned in Cal. (home I had inherited years ago after my father died.) I was able to purchased several properties at rock bottom prices in very nice areas of Gilbert and Chandler. These homes have done quite nice but mainly because of when they were bought.

The RE nightmare for me has passed and I am not seeing appreciation out of the ordinary. (Basically I'm seeing 4-6%)

However, back in 2005 there were those who saw the housing disaster coming and got out. I could have sold in 2006 but never thought home prices would crash like they did.

The next time a housing bubble starts brewing I will get out fast!

I can't go through all that again.

[American Expat]

Originally Posted by john3232

I was involved in both ends of the housing bubble. I initially bought in 2005 and by 2009 was down 100 grand on each property. (Today the properties have recouped a bit more their what I paid for them and I would break even if sold.)

In 2010 I actually went back into the market by taking out a equity loan on the home I owned in Cal. (home I had inherited years ago after my father died.) I was able to purchased several properties at rock bottom prices in very nice areas of Gilbert and Chandler. These homes have done quite nice but mainly because of when they were bought.

The RE nightmare for me has passed and I am not seeing appreciation out of the ordinary. (Basically I'm seeing 4-6%)

However, back in 2005 there were those who saw the housing disaster coming and got out. I could have sold in 2006 but never thought home prices would crash like they did.

The next time a housing bubble starts brewing I will get out fast!

I can't go through all that again.

Unless you get into a Detroit type situation of negative growth patterns, real estate eventually recovers and you have had to be patient to recover from the worst housing crisis in my lifetime.


I bought 3 houses in Maricopa in 2011-2012 and they have been great rentals, I wish I had been even more adventurous and bought in Scottsdale and I'm still thinking of buying there for a winter condo. It seems to me like Scottsdale doesn't carry the premium it once did and the values are very good....anyone thoughts on this would be appreciated?


What is scary are the bubbles of rapid escalation of values like Phoenix had 2002-2006 and what we are seeing in Seattle and San Francisco now....my son is trying to buy a bigger house in Kirkland, Wa but housing prices have escalated by 18% in the last year....I'm advising caution though he could have a huge profit on the house he bought there in 2011, he would still have to pay a huge premium for the bigger house....I'm start to get a whiff of trouble.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Energy price explosions are always possible. They would come first, then a recession and RE prices in danger of falling. Nobody knows if this is going to happen in the future but right now it's not the case. As of now, there is no danger of falling RE prices in Phoenix and we have at least a year before a recession. I don't think we can make any safe predictions beyond this.

I will add that cheap oil helps avoid a recession but it won't stop it. I pulled all of our investments out of the stock market. Of course I could be wrong.... I wish I could point only to oil as a recession proof safety net. If the stock market bubble bursts, that alone could push us in a recession. The press would get a hold of it and would have a field day trying to scare us to read their news. And so the cycle continues...

Read this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o..._United_States . If you read the cliff notes (right column), there is always a new reason why a downturn happened. I'm with you. I don't see anything happening in the next yearish. But massive debt (personal and government) eventually will be listed on that right wikipedia column. The only question is when.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by American Expat

Unless you get into a Detroit type situation of negative growth patterns, real estate eventually recovers and you have had to be patient to recover from the worst housing crisis in my lifetime.


I bought 3 houses in Maricopa in 2011-2012 and they have been great rentals, I wish I had been even more adventurous and bought in Scottsdale and I'm still thinking of buying there for a winter condo. It seems to me like Scottsdale doesn't carry the premium it once did and the values are very good....anyone thoughts on this would be appreciated?

What is scary are the bubbles of rapid escalation of values like Phoenix had 2002-2006 and what we are seeing in Seattle and San Francisco now....my son is trying to buy a bigger house in Kirkland, Wa but housing prices have escalated by 18% in the last year....I'm advising caution though he could have a huge profit on the house he bought there in 2011, he would still have to pay a huge premium for the bigger house....I'm start to get a whiff of trouble.

Our daughter just moved to that area for her 1st job as a dentist. $7xx a square foot; triple Scottsdale! But holy-smokes is it beautiful (4 months a year anyways). That area is a little different and here is one reason why https://www.geekwire.com/2017/amazon...-workforce-55/ Amazon is adding 100,000 paying jobs on the backs of 22 B&M retailers 22 Big Retailers Announcing Store Closings In 2017 | Bankrate.com . I like to joke that Best Buy as well as other retailers have have become free Amazon showrooms.

[American Expat]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Our daughter just moved to that area for her 1st job as a dentist. $7xx a square foot; triple Scottsdale! But holy-smokes is it beautiful (4 months a year anyways). That area is a little different and here is one reason why https://www.geekwire.com/2017/amazon...-workforce-55/ Amazon is adding 100,000 paying jobs on the backs of 22 B&M retailers 22 Big Retailers Announcing Store Closings In 2017 | Bankrate.com . I like to joke that Best Buy as well as other retailers have have become free Amazon showrooms.

I guess that's why I see Scottsdale prices and I'm a little shocked how cheap (relatively) they are. So we have 4 months of great weather and you have 8 months...what am I missing?


Hope your daughter enjoys Kirkland, yes it's a fantastic place provided you can deal with the winter.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

I am a constant visitor to the Phoenix area and forum.

Just wondering: Would people care about prices if they were like the op's parents and stayed for many years in the same home?

For me prices in my area I don't care that much about. It would be awesome for a decline and we would buy a rental home. About the only thing that high prices do for the home owner is make them feel like they got a deal when they bought. Although, I do know some people that bought and held on to their homes when prices declined. So they bought high and held and now they are even or a little ahead. Here it is 10 years later and they are current on the payments, I think one couple we know bought in 2006 and now in 2017 they have paid down the note and have some equity in the home, only because things came back. They plan on staying now because of the beating the took when prices went down. I tried telling them that maybe the beating was only mental as they are in the same position that they would have been if prices has gone up while they owned the home.

For the average home owner I have always wondered why they are concerned with prices. Lets say that you have no interest in selling for at least the next 10 years. Would you be concerned with prices?

[john3232]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

I am a constant visitor to the Phoenix area and forum.

Just wondering: Would people care about prices if they were like the op's parents and stayed for many years in the same home?

For me prices in my area I don't care that much about. It would be awesome for a decline and we would buy a rental home. About the only thing that high prices do for the home owner is make them feel like they got a deal when they bought. Although, I do know some people that bought and held on to their homes when prices declined. So they bought high and held and now they are even or a little ahead. Here it is 10 years later and they are current on the payments, I think one couple we know bought in 2006 and now in 2017 they have paid down the note and have some equity in the home, only because things came back. They plan on staying now because of the beating the took when prices went down. I tried telling them that maybe the beating was only mental as they are in the same position that they would have been if prices has gone up while they owned the home.

For the average home owner I have always wondered why they are concerned with prices. Lets say that you have no interest in selling for at least the next 10 years. Would you be concerned with prices?

Because you need to have the financial means to ride it out. Some people have to move, some get divorced and some lose their job.

I bought a home from a couple getting divorced in 2010. They paid $270,000 in 2007 and I bought it in 2010 for $160,000. But they were splitting and the house had to go.

I own a home in East Mesa which I paid $189,000 in early 2005

By 2010 I would have been lucky to get $85,000 but I wasn't forced to sell. 2017 it's in the $220,000 range.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by American Expat

I guess that's why I see Scottsdale prices and I'm a little shocked how cheap (relatively) they are. So we have 4 months of great weather and you have 8 months...what am I missing?


Hope your daughter enjoys Kirkland, yes it's a fantastic place provided you can deal with the winter.

Evergreen lined mountains, no bugs in the summer, seafood, the ocean, and a vibrant economy. All things equal, I'll take the brown "mountains" and 8 months of idea weather.

[RedRockAZ]

Talking about leveraged, 10% of people are still seriously underwater on their home (defined by the loan >25% of the value). This link is from 2015 when it was 13% (now it is 10%) 13 Percent of Homeowners Are 'Seriously' Underwater on Mortgages - NBC News .


This should have read..."loan > 125% of the value"