Future weather/water issues? (Phoenix: leasing, neighborhoods, buying)

[Burkmere]

I know there's threads about this, but wanted a fresher perspective. It does seem that there's evidence that the Valley is getting hotter. Lots of stats back this. The urban/concrete thing appears real as does hotter weather in general. Also, although there is water available now, will there be in the future? As I weigh moving longer term, will these be big issues in the next few decades to come? (I think I'll only need about three...lol)...

Real causes for concern or no?? I'm posting this in the Phoenix thread because I'm sure the concern won't be for hot temps in some of the mountainous areas, etc.

Apologize if I'm beating a "dead weather horse" here. But I do want to know more about the actual projections and opinions and if anyone else who lives there or is moving there is concerned about the next 20-30 years in any sort of significant way.

Thanks!

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

I know there's threads about this, but wanted a fresher perspective. It does seem that there's evidence that the Valley is getting hotter. Lots of stats back this. The urban/concrete thing appears real as does hotter weather in general. Also, although there is water available now, will there be in the future? As I weigh moving longer term, will these be big issues in the next few decades to come? (I think I'll only need about three...lol)...

Real causes for concern or no?? I'm posting this in the Phoenix thread because I'm sure the concern won't be for hot temps in some of the mountainous areas, etc.

Apologize if I'm beating a "dead weather horse" here. But I do want to know more about the actual projections and opinions and if anyone else who lives there or is moving there is concerned about the next 20-30 years in any sort of significant way.

Thanks!

For some reason people in other states obsess over this. In Arizona we don't. People seem to think we are the Sahara over here, we aren't.

-Water use has decreased since the 90's even though population has exploded.
-New neighborhoods usually replace farmland and use less water
-Phoenix cities do a great job recycling water and using reclaimed water
-We have a 100 year groundwater supply
-Most "drought" articles focus on the Colorado river, very little of the Phoenix area drinking water comes from the Colorado river.

Phoenix is doing a lot of experimentation to remedy heat island effects as well. They have planted many more trees and are testing alternatives to blacktop.

[JGMotorsport64]

Common misconception present here. Usually people assume that Phoenix has the water problems but the mountainous areas will be fine. The opposite is true. Due to the geography and water table, the mountainous areas have significantly more water problems than the lower lying deserts.

As for water, there are a lot of interesting things present. We've tied our water sustainability to the supply of CAP, which is first in line for cuts on the Colorado River. Specifically, the 100 year AWS is often met by developers paying CAGRD to use CAP water to recharge the groundwater supply. CAGRD gets its water, in general, from CAP. Do note that Colorado River water accounts for about less than 1/3 of our regional water supply. The rest comes from the Salt/Gila/Verde system and from groundwater.

That doesn't mean we will run out or anything like that, but it will require some adaptation and locating new sources of water at some point. One source that is becoming more plausible by the day is leasing/buying water from GRIC (which is very water resource rich) and using it.

[Potential_Landlord]

We grow alfalfa in Arizona. There cannot be water issues if you can grow alfalfa.

[cjseliga]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

We grow alfalfa in Arizona. There cannot be water issues if you can grow alfalfa.

Or cotton!

[GSR13]

Well I think in part it depends on whether the Deep State decides to do any "weather modification" shenanigans or not.

[phx1205]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

I know there's threads about this, but wanted a fresher perspective. It does seem that there's evidence that the Valley is getting hotter. Lots of stats back this. The urban/concrete thing appears real as does hotter weather in general. Also, although there is water available now, will there be in the future? As I weigh moving longer term, will these be big issues in the next few decades to come? (I think I'll only need about three...lol)...

Real causes for concern or no?? I'm posting this in the Phoenix thread because I'm sure the concern won't be for hot temps in some of the mountainous areas, etc.

Apologize if I'm beating a "dead weather horse" here. But I do want to know more about the actual projections and opinions and if anyone else who lives there or is moving there is concerned about the next 20-30 years in any sort of significant way.

Thanks!

The information here should keep you occupied for quite a while on the current thinking about water: https://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/pr...r-water-policy

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by phx1205

The information here should keep you occupied for quite a while on the current thinking about water: https://morrisoninstitute.asu.edu/pr...r-water-policy

Thank you for that.

[gemstone1]

Originally Posted by GSR13

Well I think in part it depends on whether the Deep State decides to do any shenanigans or not.

Does that come with Tin foil hats free of charge...? (shenanigans)

[Prickly Pear]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

I know there's threads about this, but wanted a fresher perspective. It does seem that there's evidence that the Valley is getting hotter. Lots of stats back this. The urban/concrete thing appears real as does hotter weather in general. Also, although there is water available now, will there be in the future? As I weigh moving longer term, will these be big issues in the next few decades to come? (I think I'll only need about three...lol)...

Real causes for concern or no?? I'm posting this in the Phoenix thread because I'm sure the concern won't be for hot temps in some of the mountainous areas, etc.

Apologize if I'm beating a "dead weather horse" here. But I do want to know more about the actual projections and opinions and if anyone else who lives there or is moving there is concerned about the next 20-30 years in any sort of significant way.

Thanks!

The biggest concern here will not be water issues (unless something drastic has happened that none of us can predict) but increasing heat waves. Heat waves whether one believes it or not are actually considered natural disasters. In some places hotter than Phoenix the roads begin to melt, planes can't land, and people can die just being outside. Heat waves are arguably the easiest natural disaster to handle since we are in a developed country. Climate change is a real thing, as Earth has cooled down and heated up periodically over the course of its life, and we are in a warming stage right now (1800s was a cooler than average period ironically) and that will affect Phoenix more than anything. If no one can drive and planes can't land because it's past the melting point for asphalt and the FAA has their limits, you're stuck at home. It's not like we are built like Manhattan or anything with underground subways or something that would be protected from such a thing. The infrastructure here will be in a dire state, assuming growth continues like this and so does the UHI.

What should be looked into here is something that is white, not black asphalt, to use for the roads. And before anyone says it's too reflective, try driving in snow some time. People do that a lot. Phoenix dedicates more public space to black asphalt than most comparable cities due to our low density through out on top of large amounts of land used. In one of the hottest cities in the country, the majority of our surface area should not be made out of black material that absorbs 95% of sunlight.

Though there's many other things as well that can help curb rising temperatures that we should look into.