Census estimates say that Phoenix growth is slowing down. (Tucson: homes, agriculture)

[steve22]

Originally Posted by radraja

Yep. The approximate 100k encompasses about 40k net internal migration (the number of people moving in minus the number of people leaving), 40k of natural growth (births minus deaths), and about 20k of international migration (that they know of).

"That they know of"- that's my point. The actual number of people leaving is much, much more difficult to track and to quantify than the number of people who have immigrated to the area. For instance, I'm sure that the census data would still more than likely consider me to be a Phoenix resident, as there's really no way realistic way to reflect that I've left. I'm sure I'm not alone in that regard. Also, as another example, many of the births at Phoenix area hospitals are among immigrants, illegal or otherwise, who take advantage of the "free" medical care here, have their babies and then take back off across the border. My point is that these figures are really a very rough estimate, at best.

[Greatday]

Originally Posted by steve22

"That they know of"- that's my point. The actual number of people leaving is much, much more difficult to track and to quantify than the number of people who have immigrated to the area. For instance, I'm sure that the census data would still more than likely consider me to be a Phoenix resident, as there's really no way realistic way to reflect that I've left. I'm sure I'm not alone in that regard. Also, as another example, many of the births at Phoenix area hospitals are among immigrants, illegal or otherwise, who take advantage of the "free" medical care here, have their babies and then take back off across the border. My point is that these figures are really a very rough estimate, at best.

They track change in drivers licenses (by state), utility disconnects, change of address (from IRS database)

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by steve22

"That they know of"- that's my point. The actual number of people leaving is much, much more difficult to track and to quantify than the number of people who have immigrated to the area. For instance, I'm sure that the census data would still more than likely consider me to be a Phoenix resident, as there's really no way realistic way to reflect that I've left. I'm sure I'm not alone in that regard. Also, as another example, many of the births at Phoenix area hospitals are among immigrants, illegal or otherwise, who take advantage of the "free" medical care here, have their babies and then take back off across the border. My point is that these figures are really a very rough estimate, at best.

They use tax returns to get the internal migration figures. I agree the figures are not perfect, especially with respect to illegals. But, if anything, they probably underestimate the number as so many "live in the shadows". Give it up. People are flocking to the lifestyle you love to hate and there is nothing you can do about it. We're number one!! We're number one!!

[londonbarcelona]

Originally Posted by radraja

According to the new census estimates, internal migration into Maricopa County has fallen to approximately 40,000 people a year (down from an approximate 74,000 last year in 2006, and 86,000 in 2005).

That's a pretty huge dip. I'm almost questioning the accuracy.
All popular markets have taken a plunge this year, but one of over 30,000 is by far the most extreme I've seen.

What do you guys make of this? Do you think the slowing down trend will continue? Or are the estimates just way off base?

Fortunately (at least in my opinion) it's going to keep falling. Phoenix cannot sustain it's population at the level it is now. Also, everything that "used" to be inexpensive is now MORE expensive than most parts of the country. Plus with the influx of illegal immigrants, the nations WORST schools, lack of professional development, etc. it can't possibly be as appealing to many people anymore.
Personally, I'd love to see it go back to the bedroom community it once was.

[wit-nit]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

They use tax returns to get the internal migration figures. I agree the figures are not perfect, especially with respect to illegals. But, if anything, they probably underestimate the number as so many "live in the shadows". Give it up. People are flocking to the lifestyle you love to hate and there is nothing you can do about it. We're number one!! We're number one!!

Yea team, we're #1 and proud of it. Now that we've received national attention with an authorized season, "Monsoon Season" like the 'hurricane season' and 'tornado season' along with others, we have finally reached the pinnacle of all peaks and are recognized all over the world as a #1 class State. Let's here it for the "Giffer'... Yea team, where are the Hooters Girls to cheer us on!

[jjbradleynyc]

Originally Posted by nitram

According to the Governors office, and another official office(Transportation Dept??)the estimated population in AZ in 2025 will be 25 million people, up from the 4+ million now.

What do you mean, 4+ million now? The AZ population from the 2006 estimates is about 6.1 million...25 million in 2025? That seems super extreme to me. Maybe 11-12 million...jeez, 25 ?? That sounds super high.

[SteelCityRising]

At what point do you think that the growth you are all currently experiencing will start to have negative impacts upon your potable water supply? You are located in the desert, are you not? What preparations are your elected officials taking to ensure that future generations will have plenty of water available to them? Are there plans in place for desalination plants along the Pacific Coast? Will more water be diverted from the Colorado River? You're not planning on sticking a giant "sippee straw" into the Great Lakes, are you, as that will face TREMENDOUS opposition from not only the Great Lakes states, but Canada as well?

Your state really should be GRATEFUL for this temporary hiccup in growth so that it can have respite to improve its infrastructure for future growth. From what I've seen with all of your issues with poor air quality, urban sprawl, traffic congestion, etc., up to this point a poor job has been done in urban planning in Greater Phoenix. Utilize this opportunity to not only play catch-up, but also to plan ahead.

[SteelCityRising]

Originally Posted by nitram

According to the Governors office, and another official office(Transportation Dept??)the estimated population in AZ in 2025 will be 25 million people, up from the 4+ million now.

So in roughly 17 years Arizona is going to grow from 6,000,000 residents to 25,000,000 residents? That's an increase of 19,000,000 residents, or over 1,000,000 per year. Sounds to me as if your governor doesn't have a clue about mathematics.

[Greatday]

Originally Posted by SWB

At what point do you think that the growth you are all currently experiencing will start to have negative impacts upon your potable water supply?

100+ years SWB

The "drought" is now offically over.

The water reservoirs are full.

The Groundwater aquafirs are full.

We have a snowback that is far in excess of "normal" yet to melt.

Thanks for your concerns

[miamiman]

Originally Posted by nitram

According to the Governors office, and another official office(Transportation Dept??)the estimated population in AZ in 2025 will be 25 million people, up from the 4+ million now.

Absolutely ridiculous. There will not be 25 million people in Arizona in 2025. This state would collapse if there were that many people. The breakdown would look something like this: the Phoenix area would have around 16 million people (4 million in the city), Tucson 3.5 million in metro (2 million in the city), and the rest of the state 5.5 million (approaching 1 million in Yuma).

I don't think so.