Census estimates say that Phoenix growth is slowing down. (Yuma: sale, mortgage)

[radraja]

According to the new census estimates, internal migration into Maricopa County has fallen to approximately 40,000 people a year (down from an approximate 74,000 last year in 2006, and 86,000 in 2005).

That's a pretty huge dip. I'm almost questioning the accuracy.
All popular markets have taken a plunge this year, but one of over 30,000 is by far the most extreme I've seen.

What do you guys make of this? Do you think the slowing down trend will continue? Or are the estimates just way off base?

[Ponderosa]

Don't know about your numbers, the ones that were on TV were about twice what you have but maybe they count the illegals. Anyway, there's a couple things going on:

1. One year (or even two or three during times of economic distress) does not a trend make.

2. You now have to include Pinal county when considering Phoenix metro growth as a lot of the newbies are going there. I think the census had Pinal has one of the fastest growing in the country as well.

3. Migration all over the country has slowed since 2006 due the housing crunch. Most of our growth is from California and you can't sell a house in California these days. No sale there = no move here.

4. It's good news. We desperately needed a breather to allow infrastructure to catch up.

Maricopa county is still the number one in the USA. It will continue to be in the top several for many years to come.

[radraja]

The total population increase was 100,000. The 40,000 is just internal migration. Other factors are natural increase (births) and international migration.

[wit-nit]

According to the Governors office, and another official office(Transportation Dept??)the estimated population in AZ in 2025 will be 25 million people, up from the 4+ million now.

[steve22]

The numbers here also don't take into account those who have left Phoenix and moved elsewhere, a statistic that's more difficult to accurately track. Without subtracting the efflux from the influx, you can't come up with a reasonable estimate of real population growth. I've heard it estimated that for every 100 people who move to the Phoenix area, there are between 60 and 70 who leave. Taking that into consideration, I'd figure the population in the Valley isn't growing at nearly as astronomical a rate as these figures might lead you to believe.

[Ponderosa]

Figures are population change so NET:

population
County 7/1/07 1-year change
Arizona 6,338,755 173,066
Apache 69,980 492
Cochise 127,866 1,103
Coconino 127,450 1,367
Gila 51,994 543
Graham 34,769 1,417
Greenlee 7,754 285
La Paz 20,172 151
Maricopa 3,880,181 101,583
Mohave 194,944 3,292
Navajo 111,273 2,126
Pima 967,089 8,385
Pinal 299,246 30,930
Santa Cruz 42,845 779
Yavapai 212,635 5,897
Yuma 190,557 4,716
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

[HX_Guy]

Originally Posted by steve22

The numbers here also don't take into account those who have left Phoenix and moved elsewhere, a statistic that's more difficult to accurately track. Without subtracting the efflux from the influx, you can't come up with a reasonable estimate of real population growth. I've heard it estimated that for every 100 people who move to the Phoenix area, there are between 60 and 70 who leave. Taking that into consideration, I'd figure the population in the Valley isn't growing at nearly as astronomical a rate as these figures might lead you to believe.

Steve, where did you get the information that this did not take into account those who have left?

From how I understood the article to read, the totals were net, therefore we got 102,000 more people after taking into account the people that have left.
Here is the article...

Valley population gains moderating (broken link)

[amatrine]

Pinal county had the third largest population growth nation wide by percentage for 2007.

I was a mesa resident who moved here. So some of those numbers may be people leaving maricopa and moving here?

Ama

[radraja]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

Steve, where did you get the information that this did not take into account those who have left?

From how I understood the article to read, the totals were net, therefore we got 102,000 more people after taking into account the people that have left.
Here is the article...

Valley population gains moderating (broken link)

Yep. The approximate 100k encompasses about 40k net internal migration (the number of people moving in minus the number of people leaving), 40k of natural growth (births minus deaths), and about 20k of international migration (that they know of).

[artyst]

the dip was reported on the news the other night and attributed to the mortgage fiasco. people are having trouble selling their homes so they aren't able to move here or people aren't able to get financing because of tighter lending.