Where do you see the Phoenix real estate market going? (house, buying)

[smoochaz]

Went to an economic meeting with government and top officials in the phx metro area - we're good for at least another 2 years no signs of slowing down -

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by smoochaz

Went to an economic meeting with government and top officials in the phx metro area - we're good for at least another 2 years no signs of slowing down -

I'm not sure if you can see two years ahead but currently I'm not seeing any significant weakening in economic indicators either. One of the most interesting indicators for RE prices IMO is lumber futures prices and they are very close to a high, having recovered from a recent pull back. Unless I see significant weakening in lumber futures prices I'm not too concerned for RE prices nationwide. Lumber futures prices "look" 6-12 months ahead.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by smoochaz

Went to an economic meeting with government and top officials in the phx metro area - we're good for at least another 2 years no signs of slowing down -

I don't disagree, but they wouldn't know any more or less than a lot of other so called experts.

[American Expat]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

I would not compare stock market to RE market, neither for investing nor living purposes. Totally different markets requiring different approaches. Do what you are comfortable with. From my experience for most people the stock market is not the way to go... human nature is so bad to deal with uncertainty and volatility. It almost forces us to make bad decisions. Not trying to brag, it is not a question of being smart. In fact being smart is often an obstacle for investing in stocks. Most chimps outperform humans in the stock market, I'm sure.

Most studies show investing in a S&P or Dow fund will outperform the market "experts" virtually every time. I've always done better than the "investment experts" we've hired and I'm no expert in the market. I guess there are people that can outperform the market but they're working for people like Buffett & Bezos.


I do compare how my real estate is doing compared to my stock investments in deciding how I want to invest my future capital.


I think Phoenix market is still about 40% below being in bubble territory.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by American Expat

Most studies show investing in a S&P or Dow fund will outperform the market "experts" virtually every time. I've always done better than the "investment experts" we've hired and I'm no expert in the market. I guess there are people that can outperform the market but they're working for people like Buffett & Bezos.


I do compare how my real estate is doing compared to my stock investments in deciding how I want to invest my future capital.


I think Phoenix market is still about 40% below being in bubble territory.

Doubt very much you are going to see a 40% rise in real estate prices before some sort of correction.

[American Expat]

Originally Posted by Burkmere

Doubt very much you are going to see a 40% rise in real estate prices before some sort of correction.

I was referring to the Phoenix market specifically...we'll see.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by American Expat

I was referring to the Phoenix market specifically...we'll see.

So, was I. 40% more from current levels is "a lot." We shall see.

[starla]

Originally Posted by WildSpark

This is exactly our situation. How long did it take you to find something? Did you look from another state? Where in Phoenix did you end up? We're considering giving up over the lack of inventory.

We wound up buying a remodeled house out in NE Mesa, near Longbow Marketplace. I think in a hot market, buying something that needs a lot of work is rarely a good deal. Houses that needed 40-50k of work would be priced only 20-30k under market. So in the end remodeled houses were all we looked at. I also didn't want to buy a flip because frankly those are basically cheaply remodeled houses. We lucked out in finding a house that had been remodeled in the last two years. The owners were an unmarried couple who split up and neither could afford the house on their own. I was very picky about what I was willing to buy and ultimately it took us about a year to find what I wanted and make it stick (namely, a 3/2+ house that didn't need much work with a north or east-facing backyard, 2+ garage, and pool). We will be remodeling the pool and installing granite countertops, but flooring, roof, and HVAC were all done. And the pool and countertops can be done whenever we want.

Moved in last weekend, so much nicer than a crappy apartment, that's for sure!

[ghdana]

Originally Posted by starla

We wound up buying a remodeled house out in NE Mesa, near Longbow Marketplace.

Hey I'm closing on a place out there next week! The home had been on the market for ~30 days and they accepted our first offer. Meanwhile some places we looked at in Chandler were off the market by the time we got home from looking. I think horrible pictures were part of the problem.

We went for a place in Red Mountain Ranch that didn't need any repairs, and some stuff like the kitchen and pool had been updated, and the older stuff like the bathrooms weren't that bad because they're built in the 90s anyway.

Most of my peers and I are in our mid-twenties and looking to buy within the next year or 2.

[Finper]

Originally Posted by starla

We wound up buying a remodeled house out in NE Mesa, near Longbow Marketplace. I think in a hot market, buying something that needs a lot of work is rarely a good deal. Houses that needed 40-50k of work would be priced only 20-30k under market. So in the end remodeled houses were all we looked at. I also didn't want to buy a flip because frankly those are basically cheaply remodeled houses. We lucked out in finding a house that had been remodeled in the last two years. The owners were an unmarried couple who split up and neither could afford the house on their own. I was very picky about what I was willing to buy and ultimately it took us about a year to find what I wanted and make it stick (namely, a 3/2+ house that didn't need much work with a north or east-facing backyard, 2+ garage, and pool). We will be remodeling the pool and installing granite countertops, but flooring, roof, and HVAC were all done. And the pool and countertops can be done whenever we want.

Moved in last weekend, so much nicer than a crappy apartment, that's for sure!

Congrats on your new house. Just wanted to mention granite is out. Most tile and slab stores hardly sell it anymore. Quartz is in now and marble if you can afford it but mainly quartz.