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Old 03-27-2018, 10:31 AM
 
1,567 posts, read 1,945,796 times
Reputation: 2374

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Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG CATS View Post
We're heading for 2008 all over again. I aint buying squat for now. Home prices are bloated, salaries here are crap, subprime mortgages (auto and home) are on the rise, etc. The warning signs are here for all to see, but no one remembers from the past. Too many people buying second and third homes here, or getting approved for homes and cars they cant afford. Dumb people, I swear.
My wife works in the financial sector. Home equity loans are exploding again too. People didn't learn their lesson before.
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Old 03-27-2018, 10:38 AM
 
2,803 posts, read 3,159,133 times
Reputation: 2702
Long-term, housing seems to go up with inflation. So not a great investment, but still beats renting.
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Old 03-27-2018, 03:35 PM
 
Location: Scottsdale, AZ
5,649 posts, read 5,928,076 times
Reputation: 8317
Quote:
Originally Posted by ajonesaz View Post
My wife works in the financial sector. Home equity loans are exploding again too. People didn't learn their lesson before.
I'm sick of it all. These "live like there's no tomorrow" people that plague the Valley are simply idiotic.


They don't remember the vacant neighborhoods from 2008? The seemingly endless streams of tow trucks taking away their C-Class Benzes due to repossession? Dumb.
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Old 03-27-2018, 03:44 PM
 
656 posts, read 808,651 times
Reputation: 1421
It's just going to go up and up and up, no downside, plenty of land and water for more tan subdivisions. Weeee!
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Old 03-27-2018, 04:52 PM
 
Location: Phoenix, AZ
11 posts, read 14,765 times
Reputation: 26
I’ve enjoyed reading this thread as it is on my mind daily. The wife and I will be looking to buy a home sometime in the next few years. Nervous as all hell to do it tho, overpaying for a 1600sqft crapbox doesn’t sound appealing. We just got done paying off all of our debt, and are working on saving our emergency fund and then onto the down payment.

We will both be first time homebuyers, and are looking in the east valley (Gilbert/Chandler area). When I moved to PHX in 2014, nice homes were going for the mid 200’s, now those same home are low to mid 300’s! I feel like we really missed the boat on getting a good deal on a home.

We are on the sidelines for the time being. We both have great paying, stable jobs but still feel these prices are out of control. I’ll be carefully monitoring things to see how things go and in the meantime, saving as much as we can. I don’t wish 2008 on anyone again, but there’s a lot of crazy things going on in the economy right now that has me worried about another 08’, or possibly something much, much worse.
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Old 03-27-2018, 08:15 PM
 
4,619 posts, read 9,244,070 times
Reputation: 4974
Quote:
Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord View Post
Long-term, housing seems to go up with inflation. So not a great investment, but still beats renting.
Great investment if you leverage
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Old 03-28-2018, 12:28 AM
 
Location: Phoenix
3,211 posts, read 2,227,812 times
Reputation: 2607
Quote:
Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord View Post
Long-term, housing seems to go up with inflation. So not a great investment, but still beats renting.
Are you referring to housing as an investment or where you live? I agree that housing goes up roughly with inflation but that varies by market tremendously.


I'm still undecided on whether buying real estate and renting is a better investment than just sticking to the stock market. I own some rentals and I'm invested through the 401K program in the stock market.


I'm pretty sure after adding the rental return minus expenses and adding the increased value that my real estate investment has a better return for me though it requires more management than does stock investing (admittedly you can spend infinite time researching stocks as well but if you invest in a broad based S&P fund for example, easy to manage).

Last edited by American Expat; 03-28-2018 at 12:44 AM..
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Old 03-28-2018, 05:57 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
29,985 posts, read 18,827,290 times
Reputation: 25931
Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG CATS View Post
We're heading for 2008 all over again. I aint buying squat for now. Home prices are bloated, salaries here are crap, subprime mortgages (auto and home) are on the rise, etc. The warning signs are here for all to see, but no one remembers from the past. Too many people buying second and third homes here, or getting approved for homes and cars they cant afford. Dumb people, I swear.
The other major factor that caused the 2008 crash was oversupply of new homes built, under construction and planned for....that is not the current situation and with the recent growth, you are seeing a tightening of supply available. They are also much more restrictive in lending than in 2008.

As mentioned earlier, Phoenix is still 18% below its peak and how much have incomes risen from 2008 means greater affordability then versus now.

I will agree that there are still too many people that just go out and buy up to the amount of mortgage they are approved for....that's not prudent unless the prices continue to rise after they buy which is speculation.

So I think not 2008 yet by a long shot.
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Old 04-01-2018, 11:47 AM
 
5 posts, read 3,478 times
Reputation: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by DieselTrucking85 View Post
I’ve enjoyed reading this thread as it is on my mind daily. The wife and I will be looking to buy a home sometime in the next few years. Nervous as all hell to do it tho, overpaying for a 1600sqft crapbox doesn’t sound appealing. We just got done paying off all of our debt, and are working on saving our emergency fund and then onto the down payment.

We will both be first time homebuyers, and are looking in the east valley (Gilbert/Chandler area). When I moved to PHX in 2014, nice homes were going for the mid 200’s, now those same home are low to mid 300’s! I feel like we really missed the boat on getting a good deal on a home.

We are on the sidelines for the time being. We both have great paying, stable jobs but still feel these prices are out of control. I’ll be carefully monitoring things to see how things go and in the meantime, saving as much as we can. I don’t wish 2008 on anyone again, but there’s a lot of crazy things going on in the economy right now that has me worried about another 08’, or possibly something much, much worse.
This is us too. Except renting is hell right now with the rents overinflated like crazy. We are intentionally renting a house that would be much higher than a mortgage so that buying a house will actually help us save money in the long run. I know that sounds silly but we really are not ready to buy yet (we only have half a down payment saved) and want to see the housing market soften a bit before we jump in. My fiancee has a little bit of debt he needs to pay down before we get married (I won't marry him until it's paid off!) and then he will be saving that money instead of using it to pay down debt. We should be ready in 2 years to buy and hope the market has softened by then and we will be actually married.
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Old 04-01-2018, 11:56 AM
 
2,803 posts, read 3,159,133 times
Reputation: 2702
Quote:
Originally Posted by American Expat View Post
Are you referring to housing as an investment or where you live? I agree that housing goes up roughly with inflation but that varies by market tremendously.


I'm still undecided on whether buying real estate and renting is a better investment than just sticking to the stock market. I own some rentals and I'm invested through the 401K program in the stock market.


I'm pretty sure after adding the rental return minus expenses and adding the increased value that my real estate investment has a better return for me though it requires more management than does stock investing (admittedly you can spend infinite time researching stocks as well but if you invest in a broad based S&P fund for example, easy to manage).
I would not compare stock market to RE market, neither for investing nor living purposes. Totally different markets requiring different approaches. Do what you are comfortable with. From my experience for most people the stock market is not the way to go... human nature is so bad to deal with uncertainty and volatility. It almost forces us to make bad decisions. Not trying to brag, it is not a question of being smart. In fact being smart is often an obstacle for investing in stocks. Most chimps outperform humans in the stock market, I'm sure.
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