Housing Bubble? (Phoenix, Tucson, Page: transplants, rental, new home)
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Within the next several years, your kick ass home would likely fit right in. I don’t know that this particular one is worth saving, but the old ranches can certainly be made functional to today’s standards. My point is, the shortcomings from that era can be corrected and you then get the established, sought after, central neighborhood and a home that may work.
If the economy continues, probably so. If it cools, probably not. I would never take the risk that it won't. As an investment, sure. But not to personally live in the home.
I googled the neighborhood up and down the block near Pinchot Ave. The area is pretty well taken care of versus the hoarder home noeighborhood in your earlier link. I could live in the home ^^ that you gave. I guess my hang-up centers around what the homes look like a block or two away. As in, how does it feel when I bike or drive in and out of my place? If I see homes dotted with a massive arched brick window combined with a car port, that isn't ideal. Add in a group of homes with rough shingled roofs that are curling, pealed paint and a dried up front lawn, and I'm not going there. God only knows some people find that "charming" or character. But to each their own.
I will say, cheap money is partially responsible for driving up the over priced housing market. Personally, I welcome mortgage interest rates to rise. Leveraged families cannot save because too many people are up to their eyeballs in debt. Even with more powerful incomes, often people feed car leases, student loans, daycare/nannies and mortgage interest. They aren't saving what they should. The top 1% are saving a lot. They better be, because in 2019, that means $718K in income to be a certified top 1 percenter. But to crack the top 10%, that means a family income is at a less than impressive $118K. It takes about $195K of income to crack the top 5% of income earners. See https://www.investopedia.com/persona...ou-top-1-5-10/ . $200K of income doesn't go far after you pay taxes and mortgage, daycare, etc. My point being that there are a lot of people living in Arcadia that have it. But a lot more that don't. Cheap money is the driving force and a false fear that they are safe if the economy falls.
In hindsight, I wish I would have bought in January of 2011 near Arcadia or other hot neighborhoods. That was the maximum rate of return. In a lot of parts of town you can forget the percentage increase, rather, every home has gone-up around $175K. So the $90K homes are now $265K. The $200K, 2011 homes are up about $175K to $375K. But in some hot spots, they are up $300K +. In fact, the house that you liked has gone up well over $100K since 2016. Impressive. Could have, would have, should have. For me, I'd rather have a remodeled 199x home. On paper, this looks a lot better https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Scottsdale.../home/28124117
It will be interesting to see what will happen in the spots where pricing went up the most. My bag of popcorn is ready to be popped. It might be an interesting correction in some hoods. But maybe not.
Last edited by MN-Born-n-Raised; 01-17-2019 at 04:45 AM..
Sadly, if you can look past the hoarding :::shudder::: the place looks like it has great potential with that diving pool and stone fireplace with built-ins, but man...it makes me claustrophobic to look at. I can't imagine it smells good in there, either.
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In hindsight, I wish I would have bought in January of 2011 near Arcadia or other hot neighborhoods. That was the maximum rate of return. In a lot of parts of town you can forget the percentage increase, rather, every home has gone-up around $175K. So the $90K homes are now $265K. The $200K, 2011 homes are up about $175K to $375K. But in some hot spots, they are up $300K +. In fact, the house that you liked has gone up well over $100K since 2016. Impressive. Could have, would have, should have. For me, I'd rather have a remodeled 199x home. On paper, this looks a lot better https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Scottsdale.../home/28124117
It will be interesting to see what will happen in the spots where pricing went up the most. My bag of popcorn is ready to be popped. It might be an interesting correction in some hoods. But maybe not.
That house is my worst nightmare. Cookie cutter, bad finishes, zero yard, no character or charm whatsoever. I'd need to put at least $50k into it between flooring, paint, master bath and landscaping, so even on paper, I don't see it as compelling, but I get that everything I mentioned is subjective. Great location though.
That house is my worst nightmare. Cookie cutter, bad finishes, zero yard, no character or charm whatsoever. I'd need to put at least $50k into it between flooring, paint, master bath and landscaping, so even on paper, I don't see it as compelling, but I get that everything I mentioned is subjective. Great location though.
I agree with you on the lot size. That would be a show stopper. Wide angle pictures have a way of misrepresenting what it actually feels like inside the property. I added $85k into my home just to get it up to my spec in Surprise. We put in $300k more into our MN home to super charge it. So I am seeing through having to put $50k into in. Give me cookie cutter over 60's to late 70's build any day of the week. But as we agree, it is subjective.
Months of supply of new homes and specs are well below equilibrium. Far fewer are getting built than needed and the market will continue to be undersupplied for at least the next few years. Couple that with the fact that in November the year over year job growth was the highest it's been since they started tracking that stat (nearly 87k new jobs added) and the influx of boomer empty nesters, retirees, and people moving here from California and the midwest and I don't see this market slumping again anytime soon. ESPECIALLY since the multi-family market has slowed down a lot on new units in the construction pipeline. There simply won't be enough places for all these new people to live. Guess what that means? That's right, prices are going to continue to rise.
This should be interesting to watch. I'm in the first wave of Gen Xers and we start turning 55 in 2-3 years. Purely anecdotal on my part, I've recently relocated to an area in Tucson located right next to a large retirement community and my subdivision is mostly retired folks. But the 55-60 year olds that I'm seeing moving into the area tend to be ex government employees with pensions and benefits from out of state. Just chatting up guys while waiting in line at the grocery store I've met a few retired law enforcement and fire fighters that are in their mid-50's and from California, New York and Illinois. My wife is a current federal employee and she has a couple of co-workers in other states that have been shopping in Arizona for their retirement home.
My husband and I are in the demographic you are talking about (53). We just bought a house in AZ last year for our future retirement a few years out. Our friends in the same demographic have houses in North Scottsdale and another friend is building a home in Silverleaf. I think the difference with many of our friends (as opposed to our parents) is that we'll have a homebase in AZ (or FL or wherever), and use VRBO for extended stays domestically and internationally, instead of maintaining a second home. Another friend is doing the same thing in Austin.
My husband and I are in the demographic you are talking about (53). We just bought a house in AZ last year for our future retirement a few years out. Our friends in the same demographic have houses in North Scottsdale and another friend is building a home in Silverleaf. I think the difference with many of our friends (as opposed to our parents) is that we'll have a homebase in AZ (or FL or wherever), and use VRBO for extended stays domestically and internationally, instead of maintaining a second home. Another friend is doing the same thing in Austin.
You bring up an interesting point. I've had two or three homes since my early 30's and I am the same age as you (53). It's a small PITA to own a 2nd home. There are a couple dozen reasons not to have a 2nd home and they are too numerous to list. Over a couple of decades, it is wearing on me. Here is a small sample of pains: You have twice the bills to manage (paperwork), twice the contractors to coordinate, shutting up the home and opening up the next, worrying about two homes like was the landscaping work done properly, hauling things back and not forgetting key items, tying up retirement money into a house, not feeling like either is officially your home (relationships soften when you leave for 6 months), and the list goes on and on. These are all 1st world problems, but there are plenty of trade-offs.
Some of the things that have gone wrong are landscapers that messed up the sprinklers that caused $300 a month water bills (2X). A water leak that caused $20K of damage. A transformer that blew near the road causing a power outage in the dead of winter, trees downed during a storm that had to be coordinated from afar and a dozen other PITA examples. Again, so far, nothing earth shattering. I have automated lights, thermostats, locks, cameras, etc. But those take work to keep up properly as well (firmware updates, hard drives that fail, batteries to change etc).
The Wifey wants to get down to one home and do what you are proposing. To her it is a no brainer. I'm close. But I want the lake home for a few more years. Maybe 5 tops. My thought is it might make sense to simply have a nice apartment in Prescott or _________ for $18K a year. I calculate it costs me $13K a year in Surprise for taxes, HOA, heat, electric etc. Zero mortgage. Then add thousands for upgrades and repairs. When you amortize those items up and actually are accurate in your calculations, it adds up to several more thousand per year of expenditures. Plus, you need to coordinate and buy the crap. Heck, if you wrapped your home in bubble, the internals like flooring, furniture, etc are depreciating simply because of style changes. I figure it costs me well over $20K for our MN lake home which is also paid for. And again, that does NOT includes repairs and deprecation. All in, both spots costs a lot ($$ and emotional energy) to feed. Recently, healthcare has become a problem for ACA medical insurance (self employed). You are not covered out of state. So for 6 months, you have a $20K deductible and emergency use only for healthcare.
So yea, renting some VRBO's or AirBnB's make economical sense AND releases a lot of administration work and mental headaches. Especially if you split the bill with a couple or two and rent something snazzy. Dividing the rent with friends at 1/2 or 1/3 the price can buy you what ever you want versus blowing THOUSANDS on your own place. So while renting someones place has it's trade-offs, it is a lot less draining. I won't deny there is still something cool about having a 2nd place that is your very own. I wish I had deeper pockets and could hire it all done. As in, have a person full time to manage everything. It doesn't hurt to dream.
Months of supply of new homes and specs are well below equilibrium. Far fewer are getting built than needed and the market will continue to be undersupplied for at least the next few years. Couple that with the fact that in November the year over year job growth was the highest it's been since they started tracking that stat (nearly 87k new jobs added) and the influx of boomer empty nesters, retirees, and people moving here from California and the midwest and I don't see this market slumping again anytime soon. ESPECIALLY since the multi-family market has slowed down a lot on new units in the construction pipeline. There simply won't be enough places for all these new people to live. Guess what that means? That's right, prices are going to continue to rise.
Your post is a little rosy for my eyes. Here are some facts: September through December 2018, Phoenix home sales were down 6% compared to the same (red hot) period in 2017. During Q4, the number of active listings increased 14%. Still, there is a 2.5 month supply which means a sellers market. Unlike your POV, that doesn't mean prices are going to continue to rise in 2019. We don't know. They might. But the economy might catch a small cold and we stay flat. if the cold turns into the flu, they could come down in some parts of town. Meaning, there is a reason to pause and wonder.
Realtors I know have suggested things have softened some (call volume, showings, etc). That's reflected in the numbers. CURRENTLY, new buyers don't and shouldn't feel the same sense of urgency to buy as they did from 2011 to mid this year. So IF inventory rises some more, and IF people imagine the market might turn some (I can easily see that happen), all of sudden people might be listing their home to try and time the top of the market including the large pool of investors and 2nd home buyers that have been enjoying some good gains. Putting it another way, If I had multiple homes like bulk buyers, I think it might be a good time to sell off at the top of the market. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. So far, that hasn't happened. But over heated markets (PHX?) have a way of slowing faster than expected. Time will tell.
Saying all of this, 3 months doesn't make a trend. But as sure as I am sitting here, we will have several more recessions. So the question that has to be answered is will the last three month trend continue? If so, that recession is coming sooner than you predict. If not, we might get another year of some PHX housing appreciation. I don't feel the sense of urgency to buy. That was happening a year ago. My gut tells me to wait. Lose some on my less expensive property and wait for the more expensive overly hot markets to drop some more. That's my approach. YMMV.
Well...from what I have seen (and this is not scientific at all...just seems to me as a casual observer) Arizona tends to have a 10 year real estate cycle. Homes are affordable...people get interested and start buying, prices increase...we hit a "not so affordable" ceiling, interest in homes cools and prices drop...rinse/repeat. I can't seem to find any easy to read trend graphs for the past 50 years but if my hypothesis holds...we should see a dip around 2022 (last dip being 2012).
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Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. So far, that hasn't happened. But over heated markets (PHX?) have a way of slowing faster than expected. Time will tell.
