Metro light rail ridership declined in 2018 (Phoenix, Mesa: sales, 2015, neighborhoods)

[Valley Native]

Valley Metro light rail ridership dropped by 4.4 percent in 2018

The article correctly states that public transit ridership often goes down during good economic times and when gas prices are lower. I think there could be another reason behind it: the increased popularity of ride share services (Uber & Lyft) has taken away some of the demand. In any case, it's the first report I've seen where ridership has gone down since the light rail started operations. If there continues to be less of a demand, would adding more lines throughout the metro area be necessary as currently planned?

[Prickly Pear]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

Valley Metro light rail ridership dropped by 4.4 percent in 2018

The article correctly states that public transit ridership often goes down during good economic times and when gas prices are lower. I think there could be another reason behind it: the increased popularity of ride share services (Uber & Lyft) has taken away some of the demand. In any case, it's the first report I've seen where ridership has gone down since the light rail started operations. If there continues to be less of a demand, would adding more lines throughout the metro area be necessary as currently planned?

Lyft ridership has also gone down

Lyft riders spend $53.6M in metro Phoenix in 2018, less than before

Uber and Lyft do affect the transit ridership without a shadow of a doubt. More so than car ownership and driving oneself around.

The light rail does need to be expanded. One line is inefficient. Truth is a lot of Phoenicians don't live along the line and a lot of where they are going to is not along the line. We need more lines in more directions. Light rail in Phoenix has grown in ridership every year for almost a decade where some cities like Dallas and Denver could not say the same, so if anything Phoenix is one of the cities that can actually justify more growth of the light rail in terms of ridership numbers.

However the light rail lines need to be planned well. Going down freeway medians that are not walkable and encourage driving to (why drive and stop at a light rail station when you can just, keep driving?) or going to and serving neighborhoods with low transit ridership and high car ownership (like say, Paradise Valley) would be a poor use of our resources. Our current light rail line goes to not only major job centers (Downtown, Midtown, DT Tempe, DT Mesa), major schools (ASU, some high schools), and Sky Harbor. Which is why it does so well, as it serves both commercial and residential areas. South Phoenix has some 80% of residents using public transit, with that being said, it would be an effective use of our resources to put public transit money we already have funded for towards that community yes? Then a line down to South Phoenix makes sense. Valley Metro planned the line to go down one of our busiest corridors, the City of Phoenix BRT routes, Tempe streetcar, and some of the other studied light rail expansions from City of Mesa, also take the busiest corridors for heavier investment.

But the light rail has brought more development than ridership, it shows investment in communities, in its public spaces, and improvement of the city, signs a city is flourishing, which lures developers for residential, retail, and office to set up in the nearby areas. We see this in Downtown Phoenix and Midtown especially, as people back in the day were much more interested in South Scottsdale and Tempe (they still are, but a lot less so) and suburban/exurban office development back before the light rail. It wasn't until after the light rail was built things started to shift the other way in any significance. And I would say in Phoenix compared to other major cities especially ones of similar size (Seattle metro is the same population), we fall far far behind on the centralization metric still. It's hard to make transit work with our setup, but there is an interest in reducing commute times and increasing our options, and we need to look long-term in cheap, effective modes of transportation, especially as housing costs continue to rise and wages stagnate.

[exit2lef]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

In any case, it's the first report I've seen where ridership has gone down since the light rail started operations. If there continues to be less of a demand, would adding more lines throughout the metro area be necessary as currently planned?

It's not the first time light rail ridership has gone down, even though the media seem to be ignoring that fact. Ridership decreased in 2015 only to rebound in 2016 and 2017. More importantly, total transit ridership (bus + rail) went up last year in Phoenix, despite declining in most other cities around the country.

https://www.valleymetro.org/ridership-reports

As you suggest, any change in expansion plans should be based on a sustained trend last lasts for several years, and not just a single year's fluctuation, especially when there has been some year-to-year variability up and down in the past.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by Prickly Pear

The light rail does need to be expanded. One line is inefficient. Truth is a lot of Phoenicians don't live along the line and a lot of where they are going to is not along the line. We need more lines in more directions. Light rail in Phoenix has grown in ridership every year for almost a decade where some cities like Dallas and Denver could not say the same, so if anything Phoenix is one of the cities that can actually justify more growth of the light rail in terms of ridership numbers.

However the light rail lines need to be planned well. Going down freeway medians that are not walkable and encourage driving to (why drive and stop at a light rail station when you can just, keep driving?) or going to and serving neighborhoods with low transit ridership and high car ownership (like say, Paradise Valley) would be a poor use of our resources. Our current light rail line goes to not only major job centers (Downtown, Midtown, DT Tempe, DT Mesa), major schools (ASU, some high schools), and Sky Harbor. Which is why it does so well, as it serves both commercial and residential areas. South Phoenix has some 80% of residents using public transit, with that being said, it would be an effective use of our resources to put public transit money we already have funded for towards that community yes? Then a line down to South Phoenix makes sense. Valley Metro planned the line to go down one of our busiest corridors, the City of Phoenix BRT routes, Tempe streetcar, and some of the other studied light rail expansions from City of Mesa, also take the busiest corridors for heavier investment.

I mostly agree here. Expanding light rail should take place in the areas where demand is highest, which would be mainly in the centralized areas, and perhaps south Phoenix (despite the recent protests from NIMBYs there). A line to the Capitol, and more lines on major streets like 7th Street, 7th Avenue, McDowell, Thomas, Indian School, and east Camelback would probably work. I can't see the reasoning behind putting more lines in suburban areas where the demand isn't sufficient enough. Also, installing a light rail line in the median on I10 in the west Valley makes little sense ... even though something similar already is in existence in the L.A. area. That I10 median desperately needs upgrades, but I would much prefer more traffic lanes, specifically bus or HOT lanes instead of rail.

Originally Posted by Prickly Pear

But the light rail has brought more development than ridership, it shows investment in communities, in its public spaces, and improvement of the city, signs a city is flourishing, which lures developers for residential, retail, and office to set up in the nearby areas. We see this in Downtown Phoenix and Midtown especially, as people back in the day were much more interested in South Scottsdale and Tempe (they still are, but a lot less so) and suburban/exurban office development back before the light rail. It wasn't until after the light rail was built things started to shift the other way in any significance. And I would say in Phoenix compared to other major cities especially ones of similar size (Seattle metro is the same population), we fall far far behind on the centralization metric still. It's hard to make transit work with our setup, but there is an interest in reducing commute times and increasing our options, and we need to look long-term in cheap, effective modes of transportation, especially as housing costs continue to rise and wages stagnate.

There is no evidence at all that light rail has spurred development. The revitalization in downtown Phoenix would have occurred anyway, thanks largely to more demand for inward & upward development. I wouldn't have admitted this a decade ago, but ASU Downtown has been one of the projects which has created a lot of this demand. Light rail has definitely helped in this regard, but it wasn't the main reason for why central Phoenix has finally come to life compared to 20+ years ago.

I can't believe you included midtown in your example. Aside from light rail on Central Avenue, midtown hasn't changed much at all in over 25 years. The office towers bring in the business people on weekdays, but the whole area still goes dead after 7 PM. Abandoned buildings & vacant lots still can be found in the midtown area. West Camelback Road & 19th Avenue where the light rail line has existed for over a decade still looks the same with very little in the way of new development or activity. Same goes for the Washington/Jefferson corridor: still a very industrial & sketchy area for the most part. And have you been on Apache Blvd. in Mesa where the light rail line is? No change at all ... still plenty of vacant lots!

[TempeAZnative]

I ride the light rail daily to and from work and I've noticed a lot less ASU students on the light rail. 2-3 years ago it was packed with students going between campuses so I wonder what has caused the decline.

[Ripper3785]

Originally Posted by TempeAZnative

I ride the light rail daily to and from work and I've noticed a lot less ASU students on the light rail. 2-3 years ago it was packed with students going between campuses so I wonder what has caused the decline.

More online classes?

[kytoaz]

ASU offers free shuttle buses between campuses maybe word got out?

[pbenjamin]

Originally Posted by kytoaz

ASU offers free shuttle buses between campuses maybe word got out?

ASU students can get an unlimited pass for the academic year for $150. It would be interesting to see if sales of those passes had gone down.

[yukon]

I can't believe the capitol building wasn't the first leg of the rail. And the current station is about a mile away, not overly convenient.

[HTY483]

It had to start going down at some point. The trains have been pretty full for a long time.