Phoenix among top cities for millennial migration (Tucson: 2013, apartment)

[Arizona Mike]

Phoenix gets regularly trashed as not having sufficient infrastructure, a cool urban core, culture, educational excellence, etc. to attract young, tech-savvy millennials in search of a career, so I found this interesting:

When Amazon decided to locate its second headquarters in New York, it cited the supposed advantages of the city’s talent base. Now that progressive politicians have chased Amazon out of town, the tech booster chorus has been working overtime to prove that Gotham, and other big, dense, expensive cities, are destined to become “tech towns” anyway, because of their young, motivated labor pools. That argument may sound great to New York Times readers or on local talk shows, but it is increasingly untrue.

In fact, as a new Brookings study shows, millennials are not moving en masse to metros with dense big cities, but away from them. According to demographer Bill Frey, the 2013–2017 American Community Survey shows that New York now suffers the largest net annual outmigration of post-college millennials (ages 25–34) of any metro area—some 38,000 annually—followed by Los Angeles, Chicago, and San Diego. New York’s losses are 75 percent higher than during the previous five-year period.

By contrast, the biggest winner is Houston, a metro area that many planners and urban theorists regard with contempt. The Bayou City gained nearly 15,000 millennials net last year, while other big gainers included Dallas–Fort Worth and Austin, which gained 12,700 and 9,000, respectively. Last year, according to a Texas realtors report, a net 22,000 Californians moved to the Lone Star State.

The other top metros for millennials were Charlotte, Phoenix, and Nashville, as well as four relatively expensive areas: Seattle, Denver, Portland, and Riverside–San Bernardino. The top 20 magnets include Midwest locales such as Minneapolis–St. Paul, Columbus, and Kansas City, all areas where average house prices, adjusted for incomes, are half or less than those in California, and at least one-third less than in New York.

Perhaps even more significant has been the geographic shift within metro areas. The media frequently has exaggerated millennial growth in the urban cores. In reality, nearly 80 percent of millennial population growth since 2010 has been in the suburbs. Even in the Bay Area, the tech industry’s global epicenter, suburban Silicon Valley has continued to grow its STEM base rapidly, while San Francisco recently has seen rapid slowdown in tech jobs. Perhaps density, massive homelessness, and filthy and disorderly streets, not to mention unaffordable living costs, lose their appeal as couples contemplate childbearing.

Dense, high-priced cities attract young people straight from college, but they have trouble keeping them there. Some of the “best and brightest” still migrate to “superstar” cities, but many don’t stay long. The average resident in the downtown areas so popular with post-college millennials has lived in the same house for approximately 2.4 years, compared with seven or more years in the suburbs and exurbs.

Urbanists’ faith in the inevitable appeal of major cities to high-end businesses, notably in tech, may be questionable. New York, for example, is not remotely the tech center that outlets like the Times suggest; according to estimates from the economic consultancy ESRI, its share of computer-related jobs barely equals the national average, well below even such unheralded spots as Dallas–Fort Worth or Columbus. Tech workers, and the capital to finance them, may come to Manhattan or San Francisco, but the growth of these industries is slower than in places like Austin, Nashville, or Orlando.

Read more here: https://www.city-journal.org/millenn...-growth-cities

[JGMotorsport64]

Moral of the story: Phoenix is still more affordable than most large cities. Therefore, it attracts millennials despite critics who claim otherwise. Millennials are also being priced out of urban cores (no shock there, even here that's a problem) therefore they are also moving to suburbs.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by JGMotorsport64

Moral of the story: Phoenix is still more affordable than most large cities. Therefore, it attracts millennials despite critics who claim otherwise. Millennials are also being priced out of urban cores (no shock there, even here that's a problem) therefore they are also moving to suburbs.

It appears everyone is running from un-affordable places leading me to believe that the Phoenix area will suffer the same fate. AZ has a relatively low state and local debt per capita, my prediction is that will change dramatically within the next 5-10 years (could be sooner).

[Arizona Mike]

Not just Millennials, either. The high prices in California are pushing the middle class out to Arizona and Texas:

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/...way/1816113521

[Hschlick84]

At this rate, most of the US is becoming unaffordable. Time to move to a developing 3rd world country, like Thailand, Philippines, Cambodia where your money will go much further.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by Hschlick84

At this rate, most of the US is becoming unaffordable. Time to move to a developing 3rd world country, like Thailand, Philippines, Cambodia where your money will go much further.

Have fun there. LOL. Go, settle down and then report back. Of course, if you are forced to live on 2000 a month you will go and pretend to like it. But you won't be living a Western lifestyle.

[Burning Madolf]

Originally Posted by Arizona Mike

Not just Millennials, either. The high prices in California are pushing the middle class out to Arizona and Texas:

https://www.kron4.com/news/bay-area/...way/1816113521

Don't forget Nevada

[moshywilly]

I thought Phoenix would be more of a retirement place with retirees trying to get away from the cold. Base on City-Data posts, it seems like ABQ is more of a young people city.

[Burkmere]

Originally Posted by potanta

I thought Phoenix would be more of a retirement place with retirees trying to get away from the cold. Base on City-Data posts, it seems like ABQ is more of a young people city.

Not at all. You can't even compare ABQ to the Phoenix Metro.

[Prickly Pear]

Phoenix has a fair amount of job growth and while still being a major city with employment options and big city amenities, a lot more affordable than other cities. While I still gripe about Phoenix's affordability, since half of all residents live on less than $17/hr, and the average one bedroom apartment requires an income almost double that for rent (with a decent lifestyle, not paying all of your income to rent), if you are in the higher income brackets Phoenix looks fairly appealing.

Phoenix is one of the if not *the* last affordable large Western city in the US. Denver? Expensive. Los Angeles? Expensive. Portland? Expensive. Salt Lake City? Expensive. Las Vegas? More expensive than Phoenix. Albuquerque? More expensive than Phoenix. Anchorage? Sky high. Honolulu? Astronomical. So you get Western US nature with a bit more bang for the buck. Also cacti are pretty cool if you ask me. Not a lot of cities have those lying around.

The downsides are Phoenix as a city itself is just not as appealing. The pro to this is it's more affordable because of less demand. The con is if you live here your lifestyle is more limited. For example if I wanted a more urban, car-free lifestyle, where in Phoenix might I go? Even our most urban areas barely have a grocery store in walking distance, so even those areas require driving. Slim to none. Many of these other cities Millennials are moving from have more options than just 70s-90s suburbia.

Millennials would rather live in Tucson if I took a guess at it. But Tucson doesn't have the economy. Tucson could really be something great if it received some investment. I loved Tucson when I lived there, but my family and career took me back home. Tucson is not only colder, better nature access, older architecture and more liberal, but also *much* more affordable. Tucson is closer to what appeals to Millennials than Phoenix is, but you can't just move somewhere and not have a job.