Has the bottom hit? (Phoenix, Scottsdale: renters, credit card, student loans)

[markas214]

Calculated Risk blog: "In Phoenix, house prices have declined more than 45% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Charlotte and Dallas are only off about 9% from the peak.

Prices fell at least 1% in all Case-Shiller cities in December, with Phoenix off 5.1% for the month alone!"



Bottom?

[musicforme]

Originally Posted by markas214

Calculated Risk blog: "In Phoenix, house prices have declined more than 45% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Charlotte and Dallas are only off about 9% from the peak.

I find it hard to put a lot of faith in reports such as that one. As they say all real estate is local.

My house in Grapevine, TX (literally on the west side of the DFW Airport) is only down 2% from its high per Zillow.com. Other areas of Dallas I know to be down further than 9%. Further, over the past five years my house's value is up 15%.

We'll know for sure the bottom is hit when we have at least two or three months of data showing the declines have stopped.

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by musicforme

I find it hard to put a lot of faith in reports such as that one. As they say all real estate is local.

My house in Grapevine, TX (literally on the west side of the DFW Airport) is only down 2% from its high per Zillow.com. Other areas of Dallas I know to be down further than 9%. Further, over the past five years my house's value is up 15%.

We'll know for sure the bottom is hit when we have at least two or three months of data showing the declines have stopped.

And; RE prices in Texas did not spike like they did here in Arizona, Las Vegas, Florida, etc from 2003-05 either.

[markas214]

Originally Posted by musicforme

I find it hard to put a lot of faith in reports such as that one. As they say all real estate is local.

My house in Grapevine, TX (literally on the west side of the DFW Airport) is only down 2% from its high per Zillow.com. .

No faith in Case Shiller where CR got their data but you trust Zillow?

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

Captain Bill (rather than quote I just reply from your most recent post) - we'll see who is right!

I'm not trying to be the "right" answer, as in a contest so see who is right. I'm just contributing information that I have and making an estimate based on a lot of factors. As new information comes along, my estimate could change.

The unemployment rate is 6.1% (Dec 2008)Unemployment Rates for Large Metropolitan Areas

A lot of people are out of work, but still 93.9% of the people have jobs. There are also a lot of retired people living here. John McCain is still working. People have tightend their belts, and that will hold for awhile, but not forever. People will begin to spend again to buy all the things they want but may not need.

I just bought 2 Ipods, and 2 FlipCams. I use mine for my business and my wife uses hers for personal use. So we're still spending.

One thing I'm looking at is how the market will react to the Obama plan. He is taking a strong stance in his call to action to correct the recession, and is apparently going to hold the banks accountable for the money the government is giving them to help relieve the tension on lending. This may have a strong impact on the housing market sooner than expected.

I'm not a fan of government control, but I am happy with the accountability factor that Obama is introducint. It would be apalling to give these banks money and have the CEO's use the money for exorbitant bonuses for non-performance. So limiting their pay when they're being bailed out is good in my eyes.

If they don't like the pay then they can quit, and there will be other very bright minds that haven't made it to the top yet, who will be very happy to step into a $500k per year job.

One of the pro's who works the court house steps every day buying properties at the trustee sales told me that Recon Trust which is part of Country Wide, and Cal West, and some others have curtailed their foreclosing of homes. Apparently they have been told to work out these mortgages.

That should slow down the glut of foreclosed homes hitting the market.

I know there are a lot of complaints that none of this is going to help; but we won't know that until some time has passed. There will probably be some corrections and additions to the plan, and Obama has said that it will cost more money.

[jwest09]

Originally Posted by musicforme

I find it hard to put a lot of faith in reports such as that one. As they say all real estate is local.

My house in Grapevine, TX (literally on the west side of the DFW Airport) is only down 2% from its high per Zillow.com. Other areas of Dallas I know to be down further than 9%. Further, over the past five years my house's value is up 15%.

We'll know for sure the bottom is hit when we have at least two or three months of data showing the declines have stopped.

Oklahoma's home prices still rising

[Howard Roark]

Zillow's only value, but a big value, is its tracking of historical sell prices. I do not trust the "zestimates" one bit. But I do return to Zillow all the time to check on sales. I don't ever want Zillow to die.

Originally Posted by markas214

No faith in Case Shiller where CR got their data but you trust Zillow?

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by Captain Bill

A lot of people are out of work, but still 93.9% of the people have jobs. .

Bill, do you really believe what you write? I mean really...

93.9%?????

Did you ever happen to think that in that number govco doesn't include people who CAN'T collect (ie small business owners out of business) or people who's benefits have run out.

In addition to the craziness you wrote above, why don't you tell everyone how you don't believe in historicals, and that people should "work harder" to afford more expensive homes (instead of home prices coming in line w/incomes...)

jeez........for such a smart guy......really

[YAZ]

I think the "bottom" has just started. Not a bad time to "buy" whatever...but a better time to buy is later...of course, we just bought a house that we "lowballed", only because we loved it.

When I say "buy", I mean FINANCE.

We could finance the same house a helluva lot cheaper a year from now...maybe.

I dunno.

We're taking our chances. Only because we have the cash NOW...and we're ready to move.

A 5% interest rate, and I don't think we'll EVER refinance, and we're comfortable with that.

Moving towards "CASH" with our investments, as I THINK that will be king in the next ten years or so....

If the U.S.A. crashes, I think we're all screwed anyway; cuz remember:

FDR made it illegal to "own" gold.

That could happen again.

Real estate. They just don't make dirt anymore.

[buckeyenative01]

Originally Posted by jwest09

Oklahoma's home prices still rising

Yeah, but consider the location.

I hate the heat in July, but at least its nowhere near as humid as back east.