Has the bottom hit? (Phoenix, Tucson: real estate market, coupon, apartment complex)

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by CouponJack

Bill, do you really believe what you write? I mean really...

93.9%?????

Did you ever happen to think that in that number govco doesn't include people who CAN'T collect (ie small business owners out of business) or people who's benefits have run out.

In addition to the craziness you wrote above, why don't you tell everyone how you don't believe in historicals, and that people should "work harder" to afford more expensive homes (instead of home prices coming in line w/incomes...)

jeez........for such a smart guy......really

What part of 100 minus 6.1 don't you understand?

Jack, you still don't get it do you

You must be a guy who believes that everything must be easy; that everything is entitlement.

I'm going to explain this to you one more time, and hopefully you'll understand what I mean. Although I suspect I'm just wasting bandwidth.

I have a very strong work ethic. I grew up on a farm in Tennessee, and my parents followed the normal migration route to Nashville for a job away from the farm, and then to the factories of Detroit.

We did not own a car until I was age 14. My parents both worked and rode the bus to their jobs. When I wanted spending money, I had to work for it. At age 12, I was mowing lawns to earn money, and at that time we only had push mowers (that means it had no motor Jack); and the homes I worked for had 1/2 acre lawns.

Try to get a kid to mow lawns today.

I worked part time jobs all through school, and after I left school, I usually worked two jobs. For most of my life I've worked two jobs.

I worked in the factories of Detroit and sometimes worked at two of them at the same time so that I could afford to buy the things I wanted to have. To me, prices of items were what they were, and if I wanted them and couldn't afford them, I would work more in order to save and buy them.

In my environment it was easy to get trapped in the inner city, working in the factory for the rest one's life. But I wanted better than that. So I worked hard and paid my way through college, and was fortunate to get the education that allowed me to pursue my 35 year career as an airline pilot, spending 27 of those years as an international airline pilot for Pan Am.

During the time I was flying, I still worked two jobs. I rehabbed 4 plexes during the 70's. Later I founded another business which grew to 16 employees.

After retiring I realized my life long dream of having my own big (17-piece) band. It's still operating under my name, but I sold it to my musical director when I left San Francisco for Phoenix. www.btso.com

When we moved to Phoenix in 2004 we started to buy a $150k home but instead we elected to buy a $675k custom home on the lake in Val Vista Lakes. That extra payment amount meant that I needed to have more income above my retirement, so I elected to get back into real estate. The current value of our home is now less than we paid, but I have no fear because I know the value will increase again.

Of course, I could have complained that the home I bought needed to come down in price to be in line with my retirement income. But that's your mentality, not mine. And you still don't understand it. My thought process tells me that if I want something today, and my current income doesn't afford it, then I have the choice of doing without, taking something less, or "work harder" to be able to afford what I really want.

Have I repeated this enough times for you to understand what I'm saying? You can sit back and say that you have to wait for prices to come to your income level. But I don't. If I want it now, I'm willing to work to afford it.

So you see Jack, I have a strong work ethic, and believe in working hard to get what I want. My options, when coming to Phoenix, were to have the home I wanted, and work to pay for it, or to take a lesser home and complain that houses are too expensive for me. Everyone has choices, and everyone has the same opportunity that I had to better themselves.

Now stop your banal attacks on me and post some useful information.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by CouponJack

Bill, do you really believe what you write? I mean really...

93.9%?????

Did you ever happen to think that in that number govco doesn't include people who CAN'T collect (ie small business owners out of business) or people who's benefits have run out.

In addition to the craziness you wrote above, why don't you tell everyone how you don't believe in historicals, and that people should "work harder" to afford more expensive homes (instead of home prices coming in line w/incomes...)

jeez........for such a smart guy......really

I agree with you that the official unemployment underestimates the reality of the situation. It happens because of methods and definitions, of course. Maybe something more like 10-12% of workers are under employment stress now. Who knows really? It is bad, but not as bad as in past recessions (so far).

However, I disagree with comment like "houses need to fall to affordable levels". If you can't afford a home in this market, then you probably never will. These are the best prices in decades and decades - often a fraction of what it actually cost to build the house. And with interest rates around 5% - get real! The problem is deflationary expectations combined with job loss or worry combined with over-leveraged consumers combined with skitish lenders - and so forth and so forth. The one thing that is not a problem is prices. When the myriad problems other than price begin to show signs of resolution - the housing market will come storming back as buyers who are sitting on the sidelines realize this is a once in a lifetime chance to own a home on the cheap.

[YAZ]

Cap'n Bill is my hero.

That is exactly how it's done. This is the land of opportunity; the PURSUIT of happiness.

No promises, no "gimmees", and no guarantees.

My wife and I have worked our arses off since we can remember....no student loans to pay, minimal credit card debt, and we live just a 'lil bit below are means.

We've had our "ups and downs", but doesn't everyone?

I cleaned toilets at night to keep from going into foreclosure back in Michigan.

My wife waited tables at a posh Scottsdale resort to keep her home after her ex husband decided that work wasn't fun anymore.

We both worked through college while maintaining our homes without "help" from our parents. Or the government.

It's not what your country can do for you, or what you can do for your country so much.

It's what you can do for yourself that matters. Sounds narcissistic, but that ain't so when ya grow yer own 'maters and share 'em.

[azjack]

"If you can't afford a home in this market, then you probably never will"

Prices are still declining. So being able to afford something does not mean that buying a house in Arizona is a good use of money.

"These are the best prices in decades and decades"

I do not agree with that. Adjusted for inflation, house prices in the hardest hit areas are not less than they were in 1999. We are close, though. Decades is plural and 1989 equivalent prices have not arrived.

"- often a fraction of what it actually cost to build the house."

People have to understand that replacement cost is irrelevant to current value. Stuff is sold for below the cost it would take to reproduce all of the time. Useless stuff, like a toy that did not catch on in the 25 cents bin or a house in Coolidge.

"The problem is deflationary expectations"

Depressions involve more than an expectation of deflation.

"When the myriad problems other than price begin to show signs of resolution - the housing market will come storming back as buyers who are sitting on the sidelines realize this is a once in a lifetime chance to own a home on the cheap."

All I can say is wow! I guess Larry Yun is still earning his paycheck. I am glad many others now see the NAR propaganda and the misallocation of resources on suburban/exurban housing for what they are.

[markas214]

Originally Posted by azjack

All I can say is wow! I guess Larry Yun is still earning his paycheck. I am glad many others now see the NAR propaganda and the misallocation of resources on suburban/exurban housing for what they are.

WOW!

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by azjack

All I can say is wow! I guess Larry Yun is still earning his paycheck. I am glad many others now see the NAR propaganda and the misallocation of resources on suburban/exurban housing for what they are.

WOW! Where are these "others" of whom you speak? It seems to me that the entire effort today is to restore the allocation of resources to housing and consumption - world wide, too. 40000 years of human search for ever finer shelter and the acquisition of "stuff" did not change in the last couple years. Renters are one small rung up the status ladder from the homeless. The desire for homeownership is universal and powerful. Beemers are better than beaters. I can envisage early woman saying "Buford, there's too much $hit in this tiny, old cave. Let's go look at models". The consumer and the 'burbs will rise again! The only thing we should debate is when.

[Greatday]

Shoot! This is the best market I have seen in over 40 years!

Heck - it have even made me get back into buying properties for rentals. It has been absolutely fantastic.

[azjack]

"Originally Posted by azjack

All I can say is wow! I guess Larry Yun is still earning his paycheck. I am glad many others now see the NAR propaganda and the misallocation of resources on suburban/exurban housing for what they are.

WOW! Where are these "others" of whom you speak? "

Other people not manipulated by the NAR propaganda (and it is truly propaganda in every sense of the word) are some posters here, who can speak for themselves, thousands of commenters on Housing Bubble Blogs over the last 4 to 5 years, and heck, anyone who did not buy into the nonsense.

And to continue the "Lost" "others" joke-theme, here is some background info on our "Ben":

The man behind the Housing Bubble Blog - How the World Works - Salon.com

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by azjack

Other people not manipulated by the NAR propaganda (and it is truly propaganda in every sense of the word) are some posters here, who can speak for themselves, thousands of commenters on Housing Bubble Blogs over the last 4 to 5 years, and heck, anyone who did not buy into the nonsense.

And to continue the "Lost" "others" joke-theme, here is some background info on our "Ben":

The man behind the Housing Bubble Blog - How the World Works - Salon.com

Ah, the choir.

[azjack]

That is why I post on a couple of NAR-friendly sites, like city-data.