Has the bottom hit? (Phoenix, Mesa: short sale, condos, first time home buyer)

[ArizonaBear]

Originally Posted by musicforme

What part of town is she looking at and what price range?

I could see the above happening in some areas where the prices have dropped in the low 100's, but would be surprised for homes going over $200k.

Central Mesa in the $80K range.

Many of those places were going for twice the above figure not long ago according to Zillow.com

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Central Mesa in the $80K range.

Many of those places were going for twice the above figure not long ago according to Zillow.com

There are newer homes in Gilbert that can be purchased for the same price as some of the older homes in central Mesa.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by azjack

Surprise, AZ, same side of town just further North.




Frankly, I would run, not walk, from anyone informing you of a date certain (or quarter certain) of an end to price drops. There are simply too many variables. I would never have imagined that offering 1/3 less than peak price would be followed by another 50% drop. But that is exactly what happened, and I thankfully was not a part of it. Until things settle down, you may find yourself in a deteriorating neighborhood. My suggestion to re-assess after a year was not a suggestion to buy after a year. You will want to check stuff out on the ground, like the percentage of vacants or other undesirable characteristics.

I appreciate your input azjack. I concur that timing the bottom is impossible (other than by luck). I guess what was interesting about other people's prediction was that no one thought the bottom would be in the summer or early fall. I also heard "maybe late 09" from someone who gets paid well to predict the market. I'd describe this person as an optimist.

I drove up to the Surprise area and did like the area a lot. If I am hearing you correctly (as well as markas214's ripple theory), Avondale/Goodyear could fall next.

Would either of you be surprised (no pun intended) if the area north of 10 takes a rapid decrease similar to Surprise? Why or why not... I appreciate your opinions.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

I found this site to be helpful (see Bank Owned Bargains Home )

You can search the REO market.

[Wyoming Darrell]

What I'm looking for now is private money investors who don't want to invest in real estate through ownership, but do want to earn around 10% on their money.[/quote]



Isn't this what started this mess?

[azjack]

"I appreciate your input azjack. I concur that timing the bottom is impossible (other than by luck). I guess what was interesting about other people's prediction was that no one thought the bottom would be in the summer or early fall. I also heard "maybe late 09" from someone who gets paid well to predict the market. I'd describe this person as an optimist."

I overstated my warning regarding predictions. Message board and friendly discussions will inevitably include date predictions, and there is nothing wrong with that. Just be super wary of anyone's predictions who have a figurative hand on your wallet.

"I drove up to the Surprise area and did like the area a lot. If I am hearing you correctly (as well as markas214's ripple theory), Avondale/Goodyear could fall next."

I am not as familiar with Goodyear prices as Surprise and Peoria, but I am sure that prices there are way down. They may not be as far down as Surprise. Proximity to I-10 makes downtown Phoenix access easier, but the trip can still be nightmarish if timed poorly. Often proximity to I-10 is associated with a higher car and property theft rate. I am not trying to impugn all of Goodyear or Avondale by saying that, but that is the "hot zone" trend for those type of crimes.

[Captain Bill]

What I'm looking for now is private money investors who don't want to invest in real estate through ownership, but do want to earn around 10% on their money.

Originally Posted by Wyoming Darrell

Isn't this what started this mess?

NO!!!

What started this is the mortgage industry doing the sub prime loans, and wall street packaging and selling them as BBB grade investments while they were performing as AAA grade investments. Then they stopped performing.

Private money lending is used to buy and fix up depressed properties and sell them. It has nothing to do with the scenario in the mortgage industry.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by azjack

I..... Just be super wary of anyone's predictions who have a figurative hand on your wallet.

What you are speaking of is something I call "commission breath". I'm in sales and I can smell it a mile away. In fact, occasionally I smell it on this forum.

Is there a "better" area of Surprise that I should be focusing on?? The 3000 sq footers with good street appeal and granite etc seem to be going for the upper $100's or low $200's. I assume they all started in the low $400K range. From your A - B example, you pointed to some that started in the $400K range and went down to $120ish. I have not seen that but I could be looking in the wrong area.

I am attempting to learn what I can because I was going to come down later this month to take a much closer look. My checkbook will be in hand but I am thinking I might want to keep it closed till the fall 2009 time frame.

I appreciate any and all of peoples insight as to what they are seeing.

[azjack]

"Is there a "better" area of Surprise that I should be focusing on?? The 3000 sq footers with good street appeal and granite etc seem to be going for the upper $100's or low $200's. I assume they all started in the low $400K range. From your A - B example, you pointed to some that started in the $400K range and went down to $120ish. I have not seen that but I could be looking in the wrong area."

I really can not currently vouch for any subdivision given the number of vacancies, etc. That being said, the two houses that I was referring to were in the Legacy Parc subdivision, which is mostly Shea and Morrison as the builders. I also liked The Orchards subdivision, which is Beazer.

One subdivision that would probably catch your eye online is Sierra Montana. I say that because usually the lowest priced big houses in Surprise are there. But this subdivision puts the ghost in ghost town. It is a large subdivision, so this varies by section, but I looked around parts of it last year and there were literally entire blocks that were empty.

"I am attempting to learn what I can because I was going to come down later this month to take a much closer look. My checkbook will be in hand but I am thinking I might want to keep it closed till the fall 2009 time frame."

You sound like you are exercising due diligence.

[sheena]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

Central Mesa in the $80K range.

Many of those places were going for twice the above figure not long ago according to Zillow.com

A little more than twice but were never worth it.