Has the bottom hit? (Phoenix, Mesa: lenders, new home, FSBO)

[MotleyCrew]

Thank you Capt Bill for the great information. All I know is that foreclosed homes here in Vistancia are not staying on the market as long as they did last year and that there seem to be fewer new ones popping up.

[azjack]

"and it shows the buyer that s/he will not have the large supply of homes to choose from that she had several months ago."

Let us not forget the shadow inventory of foreclosed houses.


FWIW:

"Jim Belfiore of Phoenix-based Belfiore Real Estate Consulting said that based on the number of homes repossessed by banks and the number of bank-owned homes sold in recent months, there are roughly 16,000 bank-owned homes in Maricopa and Pinal counties that have not yet been placed on the market."

"Meanwhile, foreclosure activity has accelerated. About 44,000 homes in the two counties were repossessed by banks in 2008, Belfiore said, and at least that many foreclosures are expected this year despite the federal government's efforts to stop them."

azcentral.com

[sheena]

Originally Posted by azjack

Let us not forget the shadow inventory of foreclosed houses.


FWIW:

"Jim Belfiore of Phoenix-based Belfiore Real Estate Consulting said that based on the number of homes repossessed by banks and the number of bank-owned homes sold in recent months, there are roughly 16,000 bank-owned homes in Maricopa and Pinal counties that have not yet been placed on the market."

"Meanwhile, foreclosure activity has accelerated. About 44,000 homes in the two counties were repossessed by banks in 2008, Belfiore said, and at least that many foreclosures are expected this year despite the federal government's efforts to stop them."

azcentral.com

Then I say let's stop throwing money down the drain to stop foreclosures of people who never did pay their bills and who had bad credit and lied on their mortgage applications. What a waste of money for nothing. the damage is done let the market correct itself .

[Captain Bill]

Originally Posted by azjack

Let us not forget the shadow inventory of foreclosed houses.

FWIW:

"based on the number of homes repossessed by banks and the number of bank-owned homes sold in recent months, there are roughly 16,000 bank-owned homes in Maricopa and Pinal counties that have not yet been placed on the market."

"Meanwhile, foreclosure activity has accelerated. About 44,000 homes in the two counties were repossessed by banks in 2008, Belfiore said, and at least that many foreclosures are expected this year despite the federal government's efforts to stop them."

azcentral.com

Today there are 48,868 active residential units on the mls in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. That's down from 57,287 (15%) on the same date in 2008. That includes the bank owned properties and short sales.

The "scheduled" daily foreclosure sales are running less than 300 per day as opposed to around 600 per day earlier this year.

Of that number, some are sold, rescheduled, taken back by the bank to become REO's (bank owned properties) or cancelled due to a workout with the homeowner.


There are many Home Retention Counselers working for companies hired by the banks to contact homeowners in pre-foreclosure to try and work out a way for the owners to;

• retain their home;
• walk away if they have to move and just can't afford to stay;
• or get it sold as a short sale.

Buyers with good credit are able to obtain mortgages with good rates without any problem. The buyers I've worked with lately have not had any difficulty in getting a mortgage.

Many single family homes are getting down under the 75k range and there are buyers waiting to pay cash for these bargain foreclosure homes. I recently bought a distressed property in north Phoenix and sold it for $29k cash to a Hispanic family who will live in it and rehab it. When they finish rehabbing they will have a property worth over $70k today, with rents in the area around $700/mo. They plan to live in it for a long time. They had saved 28k for a home and borrowed 1k from their father.

They were smart by saving their money in preparation to pay cash for a bargain investment property, and it worked out well for them. They got a nice home on a large lot in the same community with their family.

I'm working with another Hispanic family in Mesa who own their own home, and want to buy and finance the home across the street for their brother. The brother doesn't have good credit so the family is going to buy and finance it for him and he'll make the payments. Now I'm just having to negotiate with the bank to get the price where they can work the deal.

The picture is changing. There are still some negatives out there, but there are also many positives. We need to look at the positives and the negatives to try and determine what will happen tomorrow.

[ArizonaBear]

For the record: my G/F is buying an older home in central Phx which recently sold for almost $200K.

She is getting it for $80K.

[azjack]

All factors included, I simply do not see how rising unemployment, increased walkaways, and more foreclosures lead to anything other than house price erosion. The near-bankrupt status of Arizona itself (and its political subdivisions) will only yield further employment losses over the next few years.

[azriverfan.]

According to the April 2009 edition of Money magazine, they estimated the Phoenix area market will not reach its bottom until the 3rd quarter of 2010. They advised that people should continue to rent and bide their time as prices will drop.

[mwwwin]

Originally Posted by azjack

Great. Except rising unemployment, softening demand, and overall economic contraction do not lead to higher rents. Corporate apartment complexes are heavily discounting their rates, and single family rental rates face even stiffer competition. So, you must be the exception.

Are some of these places in Pinal County? Good luck with that.

Well said...rents are going down big time...I'm paying less now than I did in Scottsdale in 1999! Big time vacancies and lots more to come when renters bail on their leases due to job losses and nothing to springboard onto...

[mwwwin]

Originally Posted by azriverfan.

According to the April 2009 edition of Money magazine, they estimated the Phoenix area market will not reach its bottom until the 3rd quarter of 2010. They advised that people should continue to rent and bide their time as prices will drop.

Agreed...wait another year+ for Scottsdale...so 2011/12 will be the time to buy in Scottsdale...IMO...and if you have a sound financial stream coming in...or savings...

[azriverfan.]

Originally Posted by ArizonaBear

For the record: my G/F is buying an older home in central Phx which recently sold for almost $200K.

She is getting it for $80K.

This is actually good news in a way. At least people are finding homes they can afford and more people are finding homes.