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Unread 02-16-2009, 11:27 AM
 
Location: Houston, Tx
752 posts, read 1,515,655 times
Reputation: 559
Smile You are safe now

We are in a bottom right now. You will never time it to the actual day and hour but overall this is a bottom. What ever property you buy right now will retain its value and start to appreciate when the market turns.

One thing ou may want to keep in mind is that when the market comes back we will need inflation in order to survive. With all this debt out there we will definitely need the value of the dollar to go down in order for the debt to not seem like much.
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Unread 02-16-2009, 12:42 PM
 
611 posts, read 1,212,074 times
Reputation: 217
Quote:
Originally Posted by jd433 View Post
We are in a bottom right now. You will never time it to the actual day and hour but overall this is a bottom. What ever property you buy right now will retain its value and start to appreciate when the market turns.

One thing ou may want to keep in mind is that when the market comes back we will need inflation in order to survive. With all this debt out there we will definitely need the value of the dollar to go down in order for the debt to not seem like much.
California has a $42 billion deficit and the others in the multiple billions as well. Unemployment is just beginning to take off. Wages will be flat or fall if you are lucky enough to have any. The banks are insolvent. Oh and remember when it was being said that the Chinese, Canadians and Europeans would swoop in and buy all these properties. Well they are now more screwed than us economically. I just can't find any upside on the horizon. Am I missing something?
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Unread 02-16-2009, 12:51 PM
 
203 posts, read 233,532 times
Reputation: 198
You have to clarify a bottom. Homes under $250k, there is a bottom forming. Above that, it's gonna take a while. 400k-1 million, people are still completely unrealistic and holding out for hope. It's much worse with more expensive homes (i.e. Scottsdale); foreclosures are starting to really pop up in very nice neighborhoods.
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Unread 02-16-2009, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Metrowest, MA
1,815 posts, read 7,170,525 times
Reputation: 811
For those who thinks Phoenix hits bottom... please put down money... and start buying.... Talk is cheap

What is your bet? If you're right about hitting bottom, you could make a killing! If you think there will be less and less jobs... may be it is a good idea to sell now before it drops again?

Regardless of replacement cost... If there are no jobs, it will get even cheaper.... Just look at Detroit....
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Unread 02-16-2009, 03:13 PM
YAZ
 
Location: Phoenix,AZ
5,645 posts, read 5,529,413 times
Reputation: 3705
Quote:
Originally Posted by smarty View Post
For those who thinks Phoenix hits bottom... please put down money... and start buying.... Talk is cheap

What is your bet? If you're right about hitting bottom, you could make a killing! If you think there will be less and less jobs... may be it is a good idea to sell now before it drops again?

Regardless of replacement cost... If there are no jobs, it will get even cheaper.... Just look at Detroit....
Detroit's been messed up since 1967.

No fair comparing.....

Ya see, Phoenix actually has a chance of bouncing back.
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Unread 02-16-2009, 07:18 PM
 
10 posts, read 12,513 times
Reputation: 12
Quote:
Originally Posted by markas214 View Post
California has a $42 billion deficit and the others in the multiple billions as well. Unemployment is just beginning to take off. Wages will be flat or fall if you are lucky enough to have any. The banks are insolvent. Oh and remember when it was being said that the Chinese, Canadians and Europeans would swoop in and buy all these properties. Well they are now more screwed than us economically. I just can't find any upside on the horizon. Am I missing something?
The USA will pull down those around itself. Like an elephant rolling over, many will suffer.
While our manufacturing sector is struggling, we are in good shape. OUr petroleum industry is suffering due to low prices, but i can assure you, the USA needs our oil and natural gas. Little known fact, our little province of saskatchewan, sells you americans more oil than Kuwait!
Oh, and by the way, our financial industry is suffering, but will never, EVER see the demise like those in the USA have.
We had this little thing called standards for loan qualifications. Something crazy like HAVING A JOB, HAVING A REAL PAYCHEQUE and VERY FEW interest only loans. Damn those rules otherwise we'd be in the freefall as you are!
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Unread 02-16-2009, 07:49 PM
 
Location: Mesa, Az
21,157 posts, read 24,122,938 times
Reputation: 3604
Quote:
Originally Posted by aaron kristen View Post
The USA will pull down those around itself. Like an elephant rolling over, many will suffer.
While our manufacturing sector is struggling, we are in good shape. OUr petroleum industry is suffering due to low prices, but i can assure you, the USA needs our oil and natural gas. Little known fact, our little province of saskatchewan, sells you americans more oil than Kuwait!
Oh, and by the way, our financial industry is suffering, but will never, EVER see the demise like those in the USA have.
We had this little thing called standards for loan qualifications. Something crazy like HAVING A JOB, HAVING A REAL PAYCHEQUE and VERY FEW interest only loans. Damn those rules otherwise we'd be in the freefall as you are!
And; as the USA recovers............that will help Canada as well.
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Unread 02-16-2009, 07:56 PM
 
Location: Anchored in Phoenix
1,680 posts, read 2,039,933 times
Reputation: 1165
I stand by my prediction of the bottom in 2012. Note there could be a sharp drop due to more resets peaking this year and 2010. Then an undershoot and a slow downward move and then flat for about 10 years.

Next real estate boom in 2021.
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Unread 02-17-2009, 04:48 AM
 
Location: Metrowest, MA
1,815 posts, read 7,170,525 times
Reputation: 811
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Roark View Post
I stand by my prediction of the bottom in 2012. Note there could be a sharp drop due to more resets peaking this year and 2010. Then an undershoot and a slow downward move and then flat for about 10 years. Hoping to save my money for $15/ft killing...

Next real estate boom in 2021.
Wow! You sure bottom is 2012 not 2010, 2011 or 2013? Is there a quarter which you are predicting bottom? What level is the bottom (back to 1992 level or 1982 level)?

IF 2012 is bottom, 10 years of flat... would be 2022... start boom in 2021... Peak in 2025 again? Bust... in 2027?
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Unread 02-17-2009, 05:54 AM
 
Location: Gilbert - Val Vista Lakes
6,046 posts, read 7,249,098 times
Reputation: 3598
Quote:
Originally Posted by Howard Roark View Post
I stand by my prediction of the bottom in 2012. Note there could be a sharp drop due to more resets peaking this year and 2010. Then an undershoot and a slow downward move and then flat for about 10 years.

Next real estate boom in 2021.
Here are the Greater Phoenix Median Price and Price per Square Foot for January 2008 and January 2009.

Greater Phoenix Area
  • Jan 2008 Median Price $230k, Price per square foot $152
  • Jan 2009 Median Price $132k, Price per square foot $91
Using these numbers as a base, can you place numbers on your predictions for end of year 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012?

Also, what is your prediction for interest rates in those years?
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