Has the bottom hit? (Scottsdale, Chandler: sales, 2009, foreclosures)

[LBear]

Well, depending on WHO you talk or listen to, some say the bottom has hit while others are claiming that another 2+ years before it hits bottom.

There are A LOT of gloom and doomers on this forum. I am more optimistic and looking to buy. The foreclosures are out there and the banks are dropping their prices. I believe the bottom is almost here. Nobody knows for sure, but the old saying, "you snooze, you lose" applies here.

I have done a lot of research and have found a 1 year old Standard Pacific Home with 3,900 sq.ft., tons of upgrades (granite, tile, etc), it sold for over $550K back in 2006 and now the bank foreclosed on the owner & is asking around $290K, or around $74 per sq.ft.

QUESTION:

1 - How is Standard Pacific? (quality build wise and financially)
2 - Does anyone think the prices will CONTINUE to drop, how much cheaper can it get?
3 - It has the Pergo wood flooring. How does this flooring hold-up to wear and tear?

[MotleyCrew]

Pergo has come a long way since the first generation of laminate flooring. Depends on how old it is. My personal favorite was Wilsonart and we had used it in some of our spec homes. Natures Gallery was the line we had used. Just don't dump a ton of water on it or put a space heater on it.
As far as whether or not we have reached the bottom, who knows. When prices and sales start ticking up then we can look back and say "yep, that was the bottom." I see so many tempting homes right now, hard to stay out of it.

[markas214]

Originally Posted by LBear

here. Nobody knows for sure, but the old saying, "you snooze, you lose" applies here.

I ?

Even when "the bottom" is reached it isn't as if prices will suddenly start rising at 50% a year. Prices will remain flat for a few years. That is how these cycles play out historically. As far as the home selling for $290k from $550k, I've seen house like that. The thing is though that the sale prior to the $550k may have only been $200k 6 years ago. I'm not saying that's the case with the one you're looking at. Just saying. also location is key. If that house is in Maricopa or one of the other far off areas it may eventually be worth much less in a few years.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by LBear

Well, depending on WHO you talk or listen to, some say the bottom has hit while others are claiming that another 2+ years before it hits bottom.

There are A LOT of gloom and doomers on this forum. I am more optimistic and looking to buy. The foreclosures are out there and the banks are dropping their prices. I believe the bottom is almost here. Nobody knows for sure, but the old saying, "you snooze, you lose" applies here.

I have done a lot of research and have found a 1 year old Standard Pacific Home with 3,900 sq.ft., tons of upgrades (granite, tile, etc), it sold for over $550K back in 2006 and now the bank foreclosed on the owner & is asking around $290K, or around $74 per sq.ft.

QUESTION:

1 - How is Standard Pacific? (quality build wise and financially)
2 - Does anyone think the prices will CONTINUE to drop, how much cheaper can it get?
3 - It has the Pergo wood flooring. How does this flooring hold-up to wear and tear?

No one is "gloom and doom", some just believed heavily in historical prices & income to home price ratios) and felt that your 550K home POS in '06 was grossly overpriced...(which you see now it is....

Others (particularly the NAR and those who follow lockstep) continued to beat the "now is a great time to buy" drum w/o skipping a beat right through the downturn.

If you call my position "gloom and doom", then thanks for the compliment...

[rebelcork]

I'm guessing (and selfishly hoping) for another 15% drop over the next year. I think Money magazine put it at just over 18%. Then, I'm guessing it will stabilize a bit until maybe 4 or five years later when it will probably happen again, but affect the more inflated areas the most (that's when I'll be looking to buy again). Anyway just my guesses, the second one being based on demographics/baby boom affect...

[Ponderosa]

If you can get a nice home in a nice neighborhood for $74/sf, what are you waiting for? That house will go for over $100/sf within three years regardless of what happens in the next 6 months.

[61scout80]

Originally Posted by markas214

I'm not saying that's the case with the one you're looking at. Just saying. also location is key. If that house is in Maricopa or one of the other far off areas it may eventually be worth much less in a few years.

Ya, Maricopa is going to fall off just like all those other cities that are, or were "far off". Ya know, Chandler, Gilbert, Queen Creek, Apache Junction, Surprise, Sun City, Sun City west, Avondale, Peoria, Buckeye, Cave Creek, Anthem, Casa Grande. Hell even Wickenburg, thats so far away from phoenix I bet people pay you to take their house


One of my coworkers was telling me how he bought his home in chandler many years ago when it was an out of the way area, and currently he is considering selling his place (still for double what he paid) so he can get further away from the rat race.


I think the bottom is near, or hit depending on where your looking. The best advice anyone can give you is buy at the price you feel is fair for the house that you like in an area you like. That's what I did and i couldn't be happier.

Personally I moved here two and a half years ago, and being in the engineering depart of construction companies I got a lot of "peer pressure" from coworkers who thought they knew something. They would all tell me i was crazy for throwing my money away on rent, and that I should buy immediately so i don't miss out on the "low" prices. I heard that "this market is going to be just like California, its just going to keep going up and up". My response was always the same, "I'll move back to Pa and buy 100 acres and a house for $250,000 before i spent that on a 1500 sq.ft house with a .15 acre lot.

I recently bought in Maricopa after renting here for a year. I feel the price is good and the timing for me was better. Will there be another boom? probably not in the near future.

I'm very excited to be a part of a new city and the development of it. My commute to I-10 and chandler blvd is still 20 minutes, the same amount of time it took me when i lived in chandler. I bought new and I'm fully expecting one or 2 more price drops, but even then I feel i got the best deal at the best time for me, I think renting for another year would have negated any value loss I may encounter.

[CouponJack]

Originally Posted by 61scout80

Ya, Maricopa is going to fall off just like all those other cities that are, or were "far off". Ya know, Chandler, Gilbert, Queen Creek, Apache Junction, Surprise, Sun City, Sun City west, Avondale, Peoria, Buckeye, Cave Creek, Anthem, Casa Grande. Hell even Wickenburg, thats so far away from phoenix I bet people pay you to take their house


One of my coworkers was telling me how he bought his home in chandler many years ago when it was an out of the way area, and currently he is considering selling his place (still for double what he paid) so he can get further away from the rat race.


I think the bottom is near, or hit depending on where your looking. The best advice anyone can give you is buy at the price you feel is fair for the house that you like in an area you like. That's what I did and i couldn't be happier.

Personally I moved here two and a half years ago, and being in the engineering depart of construction companies I got a lot of "peer pressure" from coworkers who thought they knew something. They would all tell me i was crazy for throwing my money away on rent, and that I should buy immediately so i don't miss out on the "low" prices. I heard that "this market is going to be just like California, its just going to keep going up and up". My response was always the same, "I'll move back to Pa and buy 100 acres and a house for $250,000 before i spent that on a 1500 sq.ft house with a .15 acre lot.

I recently bought in Maricopa after renting here for a year. I feel the price is good and the timing for me was better. Will there be another boom? probably not in the near future.

I'm very excited to be a part of a new city and the development of it. My commute to I-10 and chandler blvd is still 20 minutes, the same amount of time it took me when i lived in chandler. I bought new and I'm fully expecting one or 2 more price drops, but even then I feel i got the best deal at the best time for me, I think renting for another year would have negated any value loss I may encounter.

I think this is sensible advice many can agree on....

[sablebaby]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

If you can get a nice home in a nice neighborhood for $74/sf, what are you waiting for? That house will go for over $100/sf within three years regardless of what happens in the next 6 months.

I agree!!

[ArizonaBear]

My 'gut' tells me we are going to hit an average bottom of the RE market early 2009.

As for Maricopa and Queen Creek-------they are either at bottom or damn close right now.

If I were a gambin' man------I would lay some serious $$$ that north Scottsdale will suffer severe depreciation in the next few months. $4+ a gallon for gas tends to do that------even in far flung affluent enclaves.