Arizona falls to 46th for job growth... (Phoenix: transplants, 2009)

[HX_Guy]

The number shocked me, too. I know Arizona was in the top couple of spots for years, and to drop to almost dead last is a bit, I don't know.
Our unemployment rate however is at 3.9% compared to 5.5% nationally.

Former top-ranked Arizona falls to 46th for job growth, uptick expected in 2009
Phoenix Business Journal

Arizona ranked 46th among states for job growth in March.

The state, which has ranked high in that arena for years, actually had 7,500 fewer jobs in March 2008 compared with the same month in 2007, according to the latest issue of the Arizona Blue Chip Economic Forecast. Another perennial achiever, Nevada, ranked 47th, followed by Florida, Michigan and Rhode Island in last place.

Topping the list with a 2.7 percent gain in jobs was Wyoming, followed by Utah, Texas, South Dakota and North Dakota.

The 0.3 percent loss in jobs in March follows growth of less than 1 percent in January and no change in February. The last time Arizona lost jobs over a significant period based on year-over-year statistics was in 2002 following the 2001 recession, the monthly report states.

Arizona ranked first in job growth in first-quarter 2006, while Nevada led the nation from 2003 to 2005 with Arizona in the No. 2 slot.

The economic panel also revised its 2008 outlook in the report, predicting 0.5 percent growth rather than 0.7 percent job growth for the year. The forecast for 2009 was revised to 1.7 percent growth down from 1.9 percent.

The Blue Chip report is published monthly by the J.P. Morgan Chase Economic Outlook Center at the Arizona State University W.P. Carey School of Business.


Unemployment up sharply nationwide, holding steady in Arizona
Phoenix Business Journal - by Adam Kress

The unemployment rate across the nation rose sharply last month.

The rate jumped from 5.0 percent in April to 5.5 percent in May. The U.S. Department of Labor said it was the biggest single-month increase since 1986.

While the steep surge in unemployment was more than expected, the number of jobs lost was slightly below forecasts, at 49,000. Even so, job losses reported in both March and April were revised higher than initially reported. Employers have cut jobs for five straight months.

Jobs were lost in manufacturing, construction, retail and professional and business services.

Arizona's unemployment rate was 3.9 percent in both April and May.

[Ponderosa]

Time to move to North Dakota.

[Steve-o]

How can that be? Doesnt make sense.

[silverbear]

I think the unlikely combination of a low job growth rate and a low unemployment rate can be explained by two factors:

1) A lot of people who have migrated here for homebuilding jobs will return to their places of origin rather than stick around and add to the ranks of the unemployed.
2) The official unemployment rate probably does not accurately reflect illegal immigrants who worked off the books.

I suspect the real unemployment rate is somewhat higher, although probably still not above the national mean.

[trudawg]

wow.....michigan got beat out by RI for dead last! Progress is in the air!....lol
I have noticed the job market slowing here in PHX, I usually get job postings emailed to me as they are updated and AZ jobs listing used to be quite long, but now have been dwindling. I suspect that the amount of people that have moved here have started to fill those positions!
I have had my resume out nationwide, I'm no longer confined searching for jobs in location, there is just no point to limit yourself (in my circumstances anyway since I have no family here)

[azriverfan]

This only pertains to the month of March, not the entire year

[HX_Guy]

Hate to bring more bad news but...

Latest Phoenix metro area indicators:

Consumer Price Index (100 = U.S. urban average), up 14% in the last five years:

2002 - 101.2
2003 - 103.3
2004 - 105.2
2005 - 108.3
2006 - 111.5
2007 - 115.3

Housing construction off from 68,000 new units in 2005 to 28,000 in 2007

Job growth off from 7% n 2005 to 1% in 2007.

Population growth has been shaved by a third on an annualized basis, percentagewise, it has dropped from a 5.1% increase in 2006 to 3.5% in 2007.

[Ponderosa]

Originally Posted by HX_Guy

Hate to bring more bad news but...

Latest Phoenix metro area indicators:

Consumer Price Index (100 = U.S. urban average), up 14% in the last five years:

2002 - 101.2
2003 - 103.3
2004 - 105.2
2005 - 108.3
2006 - 111.5
2007 - 115.3

Housing construction off from 68,000 new units in 2005 to 28,000 in 2007

Job growth off from 7% n 2005 to 1% in 2007.

Population growth has been shaved by a third on an annualized basis, percentagewise, it has dropped from a 5.1% increase in 2006 to 3.5% in 2007.

I'm happy about the last statistic.

[twiggy]

I told you Taco Bell is the place to go. LOL
I'm trying to not buy in to the stats lately. LOL

[jd433]

A lot of people on this board are in denial. Like I have been saying Phoenix has a lot of problems right now and is not a good place for transplants who show up with no job expecting to make a living here.

Most of the Job growth has seem to gone to Texas for now and Phoenix is being left in the dust. The only way to resolve this is to revive the housing market. As long as the housing market is in peril so will be Arizona.

this number doesn't reflect that over 100,000 people also moved here during this time. Where are they working at???