Soft Market (Phoenix, Mesa, Gilbert: bank owned, days on market, low income)

[azriverfan]

Originally Posted by A2M69

Azriver, I have to somewhat disagree with you here(finally!) Let's hope for your sake Stev-O don't chime in but I have to disagree. The demand may still be strong(meaning people may still want to move there) but I think the actual amount of people moving in has dropped considerably in the past couple years, on top of that the amount of people moving out of the area has dramatically increased. You add in a bleak job market and the only people that are going to be moving there are people that have jobs. I agree the values will increase but not at the same inflated prices of 2005...no way no how...

We are not disagreeing at all. In fact, I agree with you. But we need to expand on some of the things you just said. Remember, Phoenix was the 2nd fastest growing large city behind Las Vegas for the last decade or so. I agree there will be less people moving to Phoenix than in the past but what does that really mean when you were one of the fastest growing cities in the country. I do think the bleak job market will inhibit growth

The number of retirees moving here continues to increase. The baby boomers are reaching retirement age which is a huge segment of the population. And the baby boomers are a far bigger population than its parents hence it's name: translation: a 2 to 3 times larger retirement community than in the past. Phoenix is a much more affordable retirement community compared to Florida and California which is why there is so much growth on the west side in communities that border Sun City and Sun City West such as Suprise, Goodyear and Peoria. Retirees have money and are obviously not in need of any jobs. The presence of retirees create jobs since they have money and demand certain services. For example, a brand new Mercedes Benz and Lexus dealerships opened in Arrowhead. A new Coach store opened in the Arrowhead mall. Hospitals and other healthcare jobs are being created to address this population. It's much more complicated than gramps coming here and sippin on some gin n juice while playing bridge. This new generation of retirees are highly active and wealthier.

I don't know if you were here in 2005 but that was just a ridiculous time. I mean houses were nearly tripling in value in just 5 years. Most educated people did not expect those values to persist. It was just a matter of time before the bubble burst. Sure, I don't think the homes in places like Queen Creek and some of the other far reaching suburbs will recover that value but many of the homes in the interior have maintained much of their value and should recover over a longer period of time of course. For example, my home is only worth 60K less than its 2005 peak due to its location.

[azriverfan]

Originally Posted by A2M69

...If you're making 60k in CA, and for that same job in phx area, they're paying 50k, eventhough the cost of living and housing costs are less, no way anyone is going to move here....now if phx job comes anywhere near 60k, you might have to consider it but no guarantee that person will move to take a paycut.

Why wouldn't anyone take a 10K paycut if the cost of living is nearly 1/2 of what it is in California assuming they are not emotionally attached to California and are willing to leave? Financially, they are much better off accepting 10K less in salary if the cost of living more than compensates for that loss in pay. The lower pay hasn't prevented people in California from moving here in the past so why would things change now?

[dc1225]

Originally Posted by azriverfan

In medicine, you make significantly more money in Phoenix (almost two to three times as much) what you would earn in California due to the large number of HMO's and managed care that pervades California. I know opthalmologists who earn 170K working for Kaiser in California when those same doctors would easily earn 500K or more in Phoenix. The area is so saturated with physicians that new physicians are forced to working for Kaiser if they want to live there. I know so many physicians and physician assistants who moved to Phoenix after they completed their training in California because the pay is much better in Phoenix metropolitan area. In regards to software and hardware related jobs, people were paid about 20K more in the Bay area, 10-15 more in the Los Angelas area and relatively the same wages in the San Diego area. So yeah, you might make 20K more in the Bay area but you are paying 300K more for your house as well. I can't speak on behalf of other job sectors so maybe there is a greater income disparity in your field.

You are probably right about that but I am speaking behalf of practical, middle incomed, regular folk with a white collar job....I don't think there is much of that at all in PHX...its either a doctor or walmart...I guess what I am trying to say is that much of what makes a great flourishing, stable metropolitan areas and being a good place to live in is that you need to have enough of those "middle income" bracket people. I just don't see enough of those types of jobs here!

[dc1225]

Originally Posted by azriverfan

We are not disagreeing at all. In fact, I agree with you. But we need to expand on some of the things you just said. Remember, Phoenix was the 2nd fastest growing large city behind Las Vegas for the last decade or so. I agree there will be less people moving to Phoenix than in the past but what does that really mean when you were one of the fastest growing cities in the country. I do think the bleak job market will inhibit growth

The number of retirees moving here continues to increase. The baby boomers are reaching retirement age which is a huge segment of the population. And the baby boomers are a far bigger population than its parents hence it's name: translation: a 2 to 3 times larger retirement community than in the past. Phoenix is a much more affordable retirement community compared to Florida and California which is why there is so much growth on the west side in communities that border Sun City and Sun City West such as Suprise, Goodyear and Peoria. Retirees have money and are obviously not in need of any jobs. The presence of retirees create jobs since they have money and demand certain services. For example, a brand new Mercedes Benz and Lexus dealerships opened in Arrowhead. A new Coach store opened in the Arrowhead mall. Hospitals and other healthcare jobs are being created to address this population. It's much more complicated than gramps coming here and sippin on some gin n juice while playing bridge. This new generation of retirees are highly active and wealthier.

I don't know if you were here in 2005 but that was just a ridiculous time. I mean houses were nearly tripling in value in just 5 years. Most educated people did not expect those values to persist. It was just a matter of time before the bubble burst. Sure, I don't think the homes in places like Queen Creek and some of the other far reaching suburbs will recover that value but many of the homes in the interior have maintained much of their value and should recover over a longer period of time of course. For example, my home is only worth 60K less than its 2005 peak due to its location.

OK, we do agree then....Yes, I was there in 2005 and I have friends there who told me to get out there then...but I am kind of glad that I didn't because I may have been sucked into all that hype!

Also, what I might add is that really to me, the most important telling thing about a great metropolitan city is really about jobs...not the executive jobs or the fast food workers but the middle income...because I believe they more so than any other income brackets drive the controlled economic stability and growth!

[Coop01]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

Count me in as one of those Californians that see the Phoenix area as a land of opportunity. .......

We saw an opportunity in Surprise and jumped on it. Now our home is nearing completion and we will be coming to the area in the next 45 days or so. .......

Glad you found your little bit of heaven. When I was 5 years from retirement and still under the stress of a job, I checked out Surprise on many occasions and visited it during different seasons.

I like to play outdoors but I'm not a golfer. The fall and winter were pleasant enough but the summer was brutally hot and I mean brutal.
Everything had to be done in the early morning. Even the nights were stifling.
I was also put off when I read the CC&R for the subdivision.
HOAs? -Some people should not be given authority. They just don't know how to handle it. They even controlled the Patio size and BBQ. Had to paint the TV Dish brown.
When I drove down the streets, every thing looked alike - same plants, same color schema - same houses. No one was outside except the gardeners. Everything in it's place. Very neat - very sterile. Very Very Quiet. Deathly quiet. It just felt like a place where people go to die. The only starkly different scene were the paramedics arriving at a house. Even they couldn't turn of their siren. Sorry no stimulation allowed.

Lots of Health care organizations and financial offices, banks and such but I see a lot of old people that eventually have more health problems. If you have kids and grandkids as I do, they are far away. I saw this act play out more than once with my parents and Grandparents. They all regretted moving away from their roots but couldn't move back because of the expense of getting back to California. It was as if they fell though a one-way trap door.

Your life is where your friends and family are. The nicer home is immaterial as it really is just a place to sleep as you say.

The reason you pay so much for So. Cal is that you have diversity. The good and the bad unfortunately. The excitement of life is there. The mountains, desert and sea are close and the weather cannot be beat. If it were different, the homes would not be so expensive compared to Surprise.

Now if you're part of the organizations that provide support to these concentration camps, things are better. This is where your friends and family are. You have a life but it's still hot.
Just looking at it from an alternate perspective from one who's been there.
Different strokes for different folks. Your mileage may vary.

[azriverfan]

Originally Posted by A2M69

You are probably right about that but I am speaking behalf of practical, middle incomed, regular folk with a white collar job....I don't think there is much of that at all in PHX...its either a doctor or walmart...I guess what I am trying to say is that much of what makes a great flourishing, stable metropolitan areas and being a good place to live in is that you need to have enough of those "middle income" bracket people. I just don't see enough of those types of jobs here!

I agree. This has been very frustrating to observe. It's as if we are content with building a Pei Wei, Best Buy, Cosco and a Target on every corner but when it comes to luring companies and bringing real jobs here, our governermnet has been extremely lax. Our government hasn't done enough to provide the tax breaks to lure companies to establish here. They also haven't been aggressive in developing downtown. They could have bought out those homes south of the railroad and cleared space to build and develop that land. And there is this huge area of land south of the I-17 free way near downtown just before the I-17/I-10 merger. That area could also be developed but it just looks like a big metal scrap yard and dirt heap. I also think if Arizona abolished a state income tax, it would lure a lot of companies here because a lot of executives would want to settle here to save 6% on their 500K income. That policy has certainly helped both Texas and Florida recruit companies

I do think this will change. Downtown is starting to develop. The lighrail will create a more urban feel to the city but I think we are still a long ways away.

[dc1225]

Originally Posted by azriverfan

I agree. This has been very frustrating to observe. It's as if we are content with building a Pei Wei, Best Buy, Cosco and a Target on every corner but when it comes to luring companies and bringing real jobs here, our governermnet has been extremely lax. Our government hasn't done enough to provide the tax breaks to lure companies to establish here. They also haven't been aggressive in developing downtown. They could have bought out those homes south of the railroad and cleared space to build and develop that land. And there is this huge area of land south of the I-17 free way near downtown just before the I-17/I-10 merger. That area could also be developed but it just looks like a big metal scrap yard and dirt heap. I also think if Arizona abolished a state income tax, it would lure a lot of companies here because a lot of executives would want to settle here to save 6% on their 500K income. That policy has certainly helped both Texas and Florida recruit companies

I do think this will change. Downtown is starting to develop. The lighrail will create a more urban feel to the city but I think we are still a long ways away.

They were doing well there for a while it seems luring companies(i.e. landing Verizon, MCI, etc.....)why did the big corporations stop coming there? My friends were telling me couple years ago that this was going to be the next "corporate call center heaven" and corporate mecca in general....but I am guessing that all these corporations probably went to India instead! bastards....I tell yeah, for my job I have to deal with these indian people and it is very frustrating! Sometimes, I want to punch them through the computer. They say that these people have master's degrees and exceptionally educated, etc...but they're dumber than doorknobs when I talk to them on the phone. Horrible, non-sensical engrish for one. Also, you just cannot teach someone culture! They just don't understand but yet the corporate america keeps insisting funneling money through India...I agree AZ river, for phoenix to recover like they should, Phoenix area needs huge Gov help(i.e. tax breaks, etc...!) Just cannot be done otherwise IMHO.

[sheena]

Originally Posted by azriverfan

To add to what you said, Phoenix will recruit even more Californians than before. In the past, the issue that held Phoenix back in terms of recruitment was it's small town status. A lot of Californians saw Phoenix as an underdeveloped town in the desert. That's changed a lot in the last 10 years. As the city continues to develop and urbanize, a lot more Californians are going to see Phoenix as a valid option.

I have to agree with that as well. I see soooo many California plates and now I'm starting to see a lot of Nevada plates. I'm wondering it they were originally Californians that moved to Vegas and are now trying AZ.

I also think the people from the Mid West will continue to flock here.

[Coop01]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

Count me in as one of those Californians that see the Phoenix area as a land of opportunity. We can't touch a home in our area that we would want to live in. The only thing we can afford is a run down 2 bed 1 bath condo for $290,000 in our area. After we spend $100,000 to bring it up to speed all we would have is a remodeled condo that is 37 years old. ............

Prepare to get your hands dirty. There are so many foreclosures in Surprise that the Mayor wants your help to clean it up. I like community pride. It helps keep the home values up. Good for them.
Surprise plans cleanup around homes in foreclosure
Take a look at what you can get in Surprise
Phoenix HUD Homes, Arizona Foreclosures, Phoenix Homes for sale
Another thread says the password is galaxian

[markas214]

Originally Posted by sheena

I have to agree with that as well. I see soooo many California plates and now I'm starting to see a lot of Nevada plates. I'm wondering it they were originally Californians that moved to Vegas and are now trying AZ.

I also think the people from the Mid West will continue to flock here.

As others have stated if there are not good paying jobs the only ones flocking will be retirees who will boost demand for more low paying service jobs and refuse to fund quality education for children. That is not a formula for a world class city. Also with a majority of jobs being low wage there will be less people qualified for mortgages at todays prices further putting downward pressure on the real estate market. The days of landscapers qualifying for $400,000 homes with zero down are gone forever.