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Old 10-10-2008, 10:25 AM
 
551 posts, read 2,426,306 times
Reputation: 259

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Yes, a lot of people have decided to trash their houses when facing foreclosure. Maybe it's kind of the, "If I can't have it, no one will" mentality?

Here's an interesting article from the Wall Street Journal that talks a little about it, as well as how some banks are even offering cash payments to the occupants to try and get them to just leave without causing damage!

How bad can it get? This article (http://www.foreclosure-fighter.com/foreclosure_articles_pigs.asp - broken link) mentions how one home owner in Oregon actually locked three hungry pigs in his house for a week!
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Old 11-02-2008, 08:37 PM
 
458 posts, read 669,163 times
Reputation: 156
Quote:
Originally Posted by 61scout80 View Post
they would, they did. a friend of mine has heard this from many Realtors. your numbers are skewed.

Existing home sales are up. Recent trends show 214 existing homes a month sold in maricopa. realtor.com is showing 783 existing homes for sale right now. that means there is a 3.7 month supply of homes in maricopa. There were 149 building permits pulled in July (latest numbers aren't updated yet). 101 of those were for single family residences. Maricopa is in demand, and prices are at the bottom in my opinion.
I am also looking in Pinal County, the prices are down close to 50% from two years ago. I do believe you are painting a way too rosy picture of the local Maricopa market. I get the impression you bought a home where you have taken a huge hit on financially. According to my numbers, during the week ending Sep. 29th, there were 101 homes sold in zip code 85239. Sales have dropped from July when they peaked at about 130 per month. Prices have dropped about 18% since July in Maricopa. Sales are up year to year about 3fold What also has to be factored in is trustee sales which are not real sales at all. In Maricopa County when trustee sales were taken out a couple months ago, what seemed like sales increases were really sales decreases. Plus compared to the spring and summer of 07, where monthly sales totals were in there 250-400 range the current volume is very low. Year to year sales prices are down 41%. A property in Maricopa that sold for 220K in 2005 recently sold for 78K.


The real sales numbers may be far lower than even my numbers. What I show is close to a 13 month supply, not 3.7 month. I am waiting to see how things look from data after the financial crisis began. October numbers should tell a lot. If things have not totally fallen off a cliff I will buy.

Last edited by Winkelman; 11-02-2008 at 09:43 PM..
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Old 11-03-2008, 08:36 AM
 
Location: Tampa Bay
1,587 posts, read 3,728,295 times
Reputation: 1319
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman View Post
I am also looking in Pinal County, the prices are down close to 50% from two years ago. I do believe you are painting a way too rosy picture of the local Maricopa market. I get the impression you bought a home where you have taken a huge hit on financially. According to my numbers, during the week ending Sep. 29th, there were 101 homes sold in zip code 85239. Sales have dropped from July when they peaked at about 130 per month. Prices have dropped about 18% since July in Maricopa. Sales are up year to year about 3fold What also has to be factored in is trustee sales which are not real sales at all. In Maricopa County when trustee sales were taken out a couple months ago, what seemed like sales increases were really sales decreases. Plus compared to the spring and summer of 07, where monthly sales totals were in there 250-400 range the current volume is very low. Year to year sales prices are down 41%. A property in Maricopa that sold for 220K in 2005 recently sold for 78K.


The real sales numbers may be far lower than even my numbers. What I show is close to a 13 month supply, not 3.7 month. I am waiting to see how things look from data after the financial crisis began. October numbers should tell a lot. If things have not totally fallen off a cliff I will buy.

I have bought a house in April 08 for $130k. The house was new construction, and the builder is still selling my model for the same price. they have about 30 various floor plans in my section of the development under construction. I could have bought a foreclosure for a little cheaper but I didn't want to have to dump the difference in price into the foreclosure to fix what was destroyed by the previous occupant being evicted. I don't feel i have taken a huge hit financially.

Real Estate - Phoenix Arizona Homes - azcentral.com does indeed say 101 homes sold in the last 4 weeks. but you may not know maricopa is 2 zip codes. the other is 85238 which azcentral lists 99 homes sold in the last 4 weeks. so a total number of homes sold in maricopa over the last 4 weeks according to that site is 200, down 14 sales from the post of mine you quoted.

for the next part of this post I'll be using the only source i know of to check inventory, realtor.com. if someone knows of a better source please let me know.

so, for single family homes in Maricopa realtor.com lists 804 homes. highest is $975,000 and the lowest is $64,900. 804 homes selling at an average rate of 200 a month would be a 4.02 month supply.

I still strongly feel we are at or near the bottom of the market, both in the stock market and the housing market.
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:09 PM
 
458 posts, read 669,163 times
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I was not aware of the two zip codes, thanks for the info.

Looking at the numbers from both zip codes, sales are dropping, 85238 at the lowest level in a year. Prices in both zip codes are dropping fast, both hitting new lows in the last period reported. If you bought in for the long haul and don't plan on pulling a bunch of money out, why do you keep calling for a bottom? Why does it matter?

I don't at all see that things are bottoming out. I see another 20-25% in areas like Maricopa, after that it will stay flat for a few years. Outlying areas are always the last to recover. I still think it is not a bad time to buy, if you can get a good deal.

Regarding sales and listings. I come up with 1300 using zip realty. About a 6.5 month rate with the 200 sales per month. I do believe trustee sales are lumped in there, perhaps 50% are trustee sales. it is over 30% in Maricopa County, you would expect it higher in Pinal. You understand trustee sales are not real sales, just the bank taking title back from the foreclosed homeowner. So you can't just take sales and inventory and come up with anything useful.

Good luck with your new home, I may be your neighbor soon.
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:26 PM
 
609 posts, read 1,875,063 times
Reputation: 230
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman View Post
I was not aware of the two zip codes, thanks for the info.

Looking at the numbers from both zip codes, sales are dropping, 85238 at the lowest level in a year. Prices in both zip codes are dropping fast, both hitting new lows in the last period reported. If you bought in for the long haul and don't plan on pulling a bunch of money out, why do you keep calling for a bottom? Why does it matter?

I don't at all see that things are bottoming out. I see another 20-25% in areas like Maricopa, after that it will stay flat for a few years. Outlying areas are always the last to recover. I still think it is not a bad time to buy, if you can get a good deal.

Regarding sales and listings. I come up with 1300 using zip realty. About a 6.5 month rate with the 200 sales per month. I do believe trustee sales are lumped in there, perhaps 50% are trustee sales. it is over 30% in Maricopa County, you would expect it higher in Pinal. You understand trustee sales are not real sales, just the bank taking title back from the foreclosed homeowner. So you can't just take sales and inventory and come up with anything useful.

Good luck with your new home, I may be your neighbor soon.
A major contributor to the drop in the 85238 is the active adult Province community built by Engle Homes and now in bankrupty. Nothing has been built here for a year now.
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Old 11-03-2008, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Casa Grande, AZ (May 08)
1,490 posts, read 3,345,698 times
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Also, I have started to really like www.trulia.com for my market overview. Just go to the "Trends and Stats" section and put in a zip code. It graphs thing out nicely over a one year to five year period for median price (over last 90 days), average selling, price per sf, number of foreclosures (ANY part of the process from start to finish, not just actual bank REOs) etc...
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Old 11-05-2008, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Tampa Bay
1,587 posts, read 3,728,295 times
Reputation: 1319
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman View Post
I was not aware of the two zip codes, thanks for the info.

Looking at the numbers from both zip codes, sales are dropping, 85238 at the lowest level in a year. Prices in both zip codes are dropping fast, both hitting new lows in the last period reported. If you bought in for the long haul and don't plan on pulling a bunch of money out, why do you keep calling for a bottom? Why does it matter?

I don't at all see that things are bottoming out. I see another 20-25% in areas like Maricopa, after that it will stay flat for a few years. Outlying areas are always the last to recover. I still think it is not a bad time to buy, if you can get a good deal.

Regarding sales and listings. I come up with 1300 using zip realty. About a 6.5 month rate with the 200 sales per month. I do believe trustee sales are lumped in there, perhaps 50% are trustee sales. it is over 30% in Maricopa County, you would expect it higher in Pinal. You understand trustee sales are not real sales, just the bank taking title back from the foreclosed homeowner. So you can't just take sales and inventory and come up with anything useful.

Good luck with your new home, I may be your neighbor soon.

it doesn't really matter for me, but I'm here to express my opinion, and that opinion is that maricopa is a great value right now.


the 10/1/08 numbers are listed on Real Estate - Phoenix Arizona Homes - azcentral.com

85238 seen 155 sales in the last 4 weeks, median price of $149k up from 145k.
85239 seen 131 sales in the last 4 weeks, median price up to 130k from 123k


both are still down a bunch from last year. i'm not sure how that site will break up the zip codes since 85238 was created about 1 year ago. 85238 seems to be holding value better than 85239.
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Old 11-06-2008, 03:07 AM
 
611 posts, read 1,760,009 times
Reputation: 229
Quote:
Originally Posted by 61scout80 View Post
I
I still strongly feel we are at or near the bottom of the market, both in the stock market and the housing market.
11/5/08:
"Home prices are down 20% nationwide since their peak in July 2006, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index. Economist Nouriel Roubini of New York University, who accurately predicted the housing slide and credit crisis, expects another 20% decline in home prices next year. Patrick Newport of economic forecasting firm Global Insight projects a 15% drop."

2009 will be a terrible year. The good news is that prices will fall less for future buyers than those who bought in '05 and '06. Anyone looking to purchase now had better be able to withstand a drop in equity if they need to sell in less than 3 years. The biggest problem I see are higher rates and more stringent loans terms. There does seem to be some chance of stabilization because banks and the government are helping prevent some foreclosures but 1 in 3 mortgages are more than 3 months behind nationally. I expect the number is much greater in bubble areas where speculators drove the markets.
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Old 11-06-2008, 10:32 AM
 
641 posts, read 2,052,047 times
Reputation: 275
Well here in Arizona City in Pinal they cant go lower, because the homes are now about at builders cost. Im still paying mortgage for less than rent, so even though we are down about 30k in value since buying I am not sweating it. Gonna be here a while anyway.
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Old 11-06-2008, 02:55 PM
 
Location: Surprise, AZ
98 posts, read 235,168 times
Reputation: 43
I'm renting in Vistancia..there should be no bidding wars. There's loads of houses in here for sale. On my street alone I've counted about 8 and three of those are right next to one another. And keep in mind..these homes are no more than 2 or 3 years old!! To add to the thread. I've heard Trend Homes is filing for Bankruptcy and have you seen the Centex sites in the Northwest Valley? DEAD!!! We were told by Centex that they've either halted or severely slowed the production of homes and homesites because the housing market here is flat. People aren't building. If I had the money I'd be taking advantage of all this...but we're in the same boat everyone else is in!!
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