strange things in Maricopa (Surprise, Goodyear: mortgages, houses, job market)

[azjack]

The fact that job losses and the big downturn in equity markets are (percentagewise) relatively recent events speaks volumes about the future direction of house prices. Martin Weiss explains it better than I can:

"One of the greatest blunders of our time is made by those who blindly assume home prices are so low they couldn’t possibly go any lower.
In reality, home prices don’t stop going down at some particular level that appears to be 'cheap.' Nor do they stop falling because they match some historical price that was previously a low.
The end of the decline in home prices will come only when there are no new economic forces driving them down."

"The reason: So far, most of the troubles in the housing market have been caused by bad mortgages going sour. Meanwhile,
the more common causes of housing slumps — high interest rates, rising unemployment, and recession — are just starting to kick in. And …
the most powerful causes — depression and deflation — are still on the horizon."

The Great American Housing Nightmare: Next Phase | Money and Markets: Free Investment Email Newsletter

[finnari]

young guy I work with has five kids and just bought a big home in maricopa for real cheap. I think it was 5 bedrooms and i cant remember the price but I was shocked at how low it is. Works for him.

[Winkelman]

Originally Posted by 61scout80

it doesn't really matter for me, but I'm here to express my opinion, and that opinion is that maricopa is a great value right now.


the 10/1/08 numbers are listed on Real Estate - Phoenix Arizona Homes - azcentral.com

85238 seen 155 sales in the last 4 weeks, median price of $149k up from 145k.
85239 seen 131 sales in the last 4 weeks, median price up to 130k from 123k


both are still down a bunch from last year. i'm not sure how that site will break up the zip codes since 85238 was created about 1 year ago. 85238 seems to be holding value better than 85239.

A rule of thumb that many who follow Real Estate trends use is 6 months of stable prices with increasing sales. At that point we may be at a bottom. If you average the two Maricopa Zip codes prices are down about 12% in the past 6 months. Assuming you bought in April, you home has lost about 15K in value. That is about $2,500 per month. That is scary on a fairly affordable home. No wonder you are cheering for prices to stabilize!

I agree they are a great value compared to peak prices. But those were sub-prime and speculator inflated prices, especially in a town like Maricopa.

[twiggy]

What about the aliens? They are a little strange, and well, the green helps but strange all together I think! Those little ship thingy's are always wreaking havock!

[61scout80]

Originally Posted by Winkelman

A rule of thumb that many who follow Real Estate trends use is 6 months of stable prices with increasing sales. At that point we may be at a bottom. If you average the two Maricopa Zip codes prices are down about 12% in the past 6 months. Assuming you bought in April, you home has lost about 15K in value. That is about $2,500 per month. That is scary on a fairly affordable home. No wonder you are cheering for prices to stabilize!

I agree they are a great value compared to peak prices. But those were sub-prime and speculator inflated prices, especially in a town like Maricopa.

actually i don't care if i could have bought my house a little cheaper, or lost equity in the current market. at the time i wanted out of a rental, and i bought a nice new house for a fair price. In 2014 when its paid off and i'm back in Pa it will be sweet to have my winter home waiting for me

i didn't think i was an investor buying this place, i bought it using the same process i use to buy underwear. find the best quality at the lowest price and use it until its worn out or i'm dead

that said, i really think by late 09 all this discussion will be null and void, and prices will be back to stabilizing. the same people that claimed the market will have no top are now claiming there will never be a bottom, go figure

[azjack]

The recession and massive job losses will surely lead to a rise in house prices, especially in Maricopa, Arizona. It makes perfect sense.

[61scout80]

Originally Posted by azjack

The recession and massive job losses will surely lead to a rise in house prices, especially in Maricopa, Arizona. It makes perfect sense.

So there is never going to be an end to the downswing in the economy, and we will all be eating dirt soon. makes even more sense

[Winkelman]

Originally Posted by 61scout80

So there is never going to be an end to the downswing in the economy, and we will all be eating dirt soon. makes even more sense

You did OK on your purchase. Think of all the people who bought a couple years ago. I agree by the end of 09 things will stabilize. I am not sure if I should wait or buy at the first of the year.

[azjack]

"So there is never going to be an end to the downswing in the economy, and we will all be eating dirt soon. makes even more sense "

Put words in my mouth if it makes you feel better. The "downswing" is the initial years of a deflationary depression that will not be "null and void" in 2009. I will bet you a bowl of dirt.

[Winkelman]

Originally Posted by azjack

Put words in my mouth if it makes you feel better. The "downswing" is the initial years of a deflationary depression that will not be "null and void" in 2009. I will bet you a bowl of dirt.

A little redundant using the phrase "deflationary depression" since by nature a depression is a contracting GDP which would put downward pressure on prices. Anything might happen, we are still in the beginning stages of this economic crisis.

To buy a house now, I believe you pay cash or have a mortgage payment affordable enough that you can pay it even if things get really rough.