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Anytime you can buy for less than replacement cost it's a good time to buy. There are homes like that now (and have been for a year). Personally, I would not want a house in many of the areas of mass foreclosures as I think a lot of them are going to go "ghetto" over the next decade.
I'll make another prediction, roughly a year or so from now this it will be more difficult to find a nice foreclosure home than it is now and it will be very hard to find a builder home priced below replacement.
Personally, I would not want a house in many of the areas of mass foreclosures as I think a lot of them are going to go "ghetto" over the next decade.
This is a concern of mine too, especially with the mortgage companies selling in lots to "investors" again. Once the areas become rental enclaves, your ghetto predictions will probably come true.
Replacement costs? I live in a 90 year old home with 8" oak base boards, floors, boxed beamed ceilings, huge crown moldings, stained glass and leaded windows. My home is solid brick, rafters are 3x12, studs are huge and I have plaster walls. I'm insured for over half a mil to replace, they won't redo in oak, pine. I have huge french doors, solid oak all over the place and have also modernized for convenience and energy saving as well. To build this house ground up would be a fortune. That said I'm lucky to get $300k when I sell. I bought for half that a few years ago but replacement cost were still 4 times cost. Existing homes sell for what the market will offer. New builds must sell for more or the builder goes under. Add the fact that foreclosures continue to mount and there is no reason what so ever price related replacement cost fit into this current situation. I'll dig up this post in a year and we'll see who was right. Nothing personal but my vibe regarding Phoenix area real estate is bearish. When California bottoms which it's a long way from doing, 300-400k for an 800 ft/sq barred windowed box in Compton (WTF??), then the rest of the west will follow.
Once the areas become rental enclaves, your ghetto predictions will probably come true.altus2006
I don't know about "ghetto", but you make a good point. I've seen (and talked with others) about new-ish communities taking the dive in desirability as "investors" and multiple home owners "sit it out and rent it out". Here in Central Arizona plenty of residential stucco box developments get overrun with residential single family rentals that seem to be more parking lot than home, what with all the vehicles of multiple occupants - vehicles overflowing driveways into yards and on the sidewalk, etc. The coming and going of 5-8 vehicles around one cracker box house is like the flow to and from a crack house. Also, since many of these spec homes built in the "make a quick buck" development boom have dinky sized lots, it's no picnic when 8+ occupants of these .10-.20 lot/sub-1700 SF houses make a racket. As there are no buffer zones from large lots and mature plantings/trees to muffle noise in stucco land, the conflagration of the boisterous hoard of renters with the common sound of around the clock yapping dogs make for discontent for many in the neighborhood who obey the rules of single family occupancy and the respect for others peace and quiet. From what I see, too many landlords rent it and then forget about keeping up with the weeds and general maintenance. I won't even get into all the schmo's living in that RV next to the main house. Wonder what they're paying for their piece of dirt? Love the extension cord running from house to RV - nice touch! No doubt, this is not what many buyers ever envisioned happening. There are good reasons many buyers sought out communities with little or no HOA rules, but I'm guessing many of those who were HOA adverse are now regretting there are not stronger enforcement of community rules. The law requires the reporting of a-l-l rental income. Does anybody believe the "rent a room" and subletting crowd is reporting all rental income on their taxes? I applaud responsible renters of single family homes, but many renters are not responsible (but I guess the same could be said for buyers (although they have more "skin" in the game, so they tend to be more responsible). Anyway, that's my take.
Last edited by Ria Rhodes; 08-27-2008 at 02:06 PM..
". . . many renters are not responsible (but I guess the same could be said for buyers (although they have more "skin" in the game, so they tend to be more responsible). Anyway, that's my take."
Under the lending standards of recent years, little, if any, skin was required to get into the ownership/debt game.
BTW, you may have to adjust your expectations. In high foreclosure areas, a rented house is far superior to a vacant house - because dozens of vacant houses do not stay vacant for long, if you catch my drift.
Also, most rented houses in middle class areas are not filled with dozens of unrelated occupants. Those are exceptions created by speculators who fail to properly check credit, etc. Sort of like the lenders that failed to have standards when they made house loans to some of these same speculators and others. It is a vicious circle that answers this thread's title in only one way: "Buyer's market? You have to be kidding me!"
Under the lending standards of recent years, little, if any, skin was required to get into the ownership/debt game.
True, but the numbers of "walk away" & "jingle mail" stories have been exaggerated. The ratio of walkaways from non-walkaway mortgage holders under stress is not as high as house bubble forums suggest.
Quote:
Originally Posted by azjack
BTW, you may have to adjust your expectations. In high foreclosure areas, a rented house is far superior to a vacant house - because dozens of vacant houses do not stay vacant for long, if you catch my drift.
Yes, nothing like squatters and vacant houses that smell of urine and look like an empty beer can graveyard. The rash of appliances and copper pipe thefts out of vacant homes harks back to the sad days when dopers were stealing metals from public infrastructure to resell at scrap buyers to fund their addictions.
Quote:
Originally Posted by azjack
Also most rented houses in middle class areas are not filled with dozens of unrelated occupants. Those are exceptions created by speculators who fail to properly check credit, etc. Sort of like the lenders that failed to have standards when they made house loans to some of these same speculators and others. It is a vicious circle that answers this thread's title in only one way: "Buyer's market? You have to be kidding me!"
The exception rather than the rule? Yes I suppose so, but it's a real drag when you're living all around the exceptions. I've watched several stucco boxes in my area start out with a couple renters and keep adding more inhabitants. In one case a 1500 SF home is occupied by four law enforcement people, all who park their patrol vehicles in the front yard - fortunately they are mostly quiet because of their long shifts which must exhaust them, but their big Waste Management trash cans are always overflowing with beer cans and pizza boxes. In another single family house it appears the three renters crashing there are running their landscaping business out of the place. Love the three large pickups and dump truck in the front yard - nice touch! Maybe the irresponsible landlords are all in Bermuda?
Last edited by Ria Rhodes; 08-28-2008 at 10:07 AM..
"True, but the numbers of "walk away" & "jingle mail" stories have been exaggerated. The ratio of walkaways from non-walkaway mortgage holders under stress is not as high as house bubble forums suggest."
How high do they suggest, and why is their number too high? Walking away has gone mainstream, and is becoming more socially acceptable for those who have a choice. Foreclosures in Arizona are definitely at record levels. I feel that I can safely guess that a majority of Arizonans underwater by more than $100K will walk away over the next few years. Jingle all the way.
Quote:
"Yes, nothing like squatters and vacant houses that smell of urine and look like an empty beer can graveyard. The rash of appliances and copper pipe thefts out of vacant homes harks back to the sad days when dopers were stealing metals from public infrastructure to resell at scrap buyers to fund their addictions."
Yep, and houses are being stripped by delinquent borrowers, meth addicts, and general criminals every day in Maricopa and Pinal counties. Scrap metal? Yep. Also, check out the listings for nearly new cabinets and water heaters on Craigslist.
Quote:
"In one case a 1500 SF home is occupied by four law enforcement people, all who park their patrol vehicles in the front yard - fortunately they are mostly quiet because of their long shifts which must exhaust them, but their big Waste Management trash cans are always overflowing with beer cans and pizza boxes. In another single family house it appears the three renters crashing there are running their landscaping business out of the place."
Most cities have occupancy restrictions for unrelated persons, regardless of whether the house is owner-occupied or rented. Find out the details for your city. If a household obviously exceeds the limits and presents a genuine nuisance, pursue it. Obviously, landscapers may store their equipment in a garage where they live. An HOA would probably have restrictions on long-term storage of such equipment by anyone outdoors.
There are always pigs around. I lived next to someone who bought their house. They were not fanatics about landscaping, but that was alright. But their garbage can was disgusting. This family rarely bagged their garbage, which violated city ordinances and for organic material, human decency IMO. Odors emanating from this thing (even when emptied) could be easily smelled 30 feet away. I had to stop using the back yard b/c they stored the can in their back yard and the smell drifted. I occasionally added a little bleach to their can, and it helped a little. Ultimately, they moved to a larger house in a grander neighborhood and brought their pig lifestyle with them.
If there are no surprises and my job works out, I will be looking to buy a house and would prefer to buy one around my current neighborhood due to its centralized location and close proximity to my job. That said, the are I was referring to is around Thunderbird and 51 freeway.
Do you guys think this area is decent enough or should I rather look somewhere else not far from the current location?
Further East is Scottdale but there really isn't much that attracts me in Scottsdale and houses seemed to be pretty overpriced for the most part and it would also extend my commute so there is no benefit to consider any address West of 44th street., South of Cactus and too much North of 101, any suggestions?
By the end of this year, I will know for sure if Phoenix will be a home for me at least for a few more years or I will be packing my bags and try my luck elsewhere...
Unfortunately thats what you get in a "buyers" market. We went through the same thing took months before we finally found something worth buying in the price range we could afford we were the first to see it on the first day it hit the market and made an offer the same day really got lucky that the seller excepted the next day, realtor said there were many offers over ours within a 24 hr period of ecepting our offer.
Anyways its going to take a while so try not to get frustrated, and yes 61scout80 is correct there are ton of investors buying up property mostley Canadian and they usually pay "cash" u know what i mean have the funds allready there, meaning a seller would must rather take money free and clear instead of having to worry about loans.
Your also going to start seeing an increase in price if your looking at any forecloursers because the value of the house is technically low however the banks are trying to comp some of there losses.
Just hang in there and don't give up if your able to buy a home now cheap and in decent quality the turn around on it in aprox min of 5 yrs could be huge!
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